Thread by @BenjySarlin

The most controversial part among R's of Mitch McConnell backing infrastructure is whether it helps or hurts Democrats trying to pass their $3.5T megabill.

The key q here is how likely R's think Manchin/Sinema are to kill it and under what circumstances. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

The anti-deal take is shared by folks like Trump and Cruz and articulated here by @philipaklein. D's say the two bills are linked and must pass in tandem. If you pass one, you're triggering the other one. If you kill it, you might blow them all up. nationalreview.com/corner/joe-man…

R's got VERY excited, for example, when Manchin said this during talks

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1419794181132886018

But Manchin's position is likely contingent on WHO is seen as blowing up the deal. In this case, his quote was a clear warning shot at D's threatening to ditch talks over last-second disagreements. Similarly, he talked about going it alone early in process to push R's into talks.

So if McConnell were to swoop in last second after months of talks he's been briefed on throughout with his allies involved to kill a deal, Manchin et al would likely not be to keen to punish Democrats over it. Instead, Schumer would be able to say you tried, now it's our turn.

So there's an R case that passing a deal arguably HELPS kill the D agenda.

In this case, by removing McConnell as an easy villain to unite against, D's have to work things out on their own.

Here's how that's going so far.

There's at least some chance D's can't agree on a deal, or at the very least have to settle for something much less ambitious than their $3.5T bill because there's just too much packed on top of it and too many center/left disagreements. Maybe even on infrastructure too.

It may be the only way that happens is if McConnell's fingerprints aren't on the murder weapon. Of course, it's possible D's pass something big either way, especially with so much of Biden's agenda at stake and so many pieces popular with different factions. But that's the gamble