THREAD: latest covid situation in UK (mainly England) and what I think is going on...
TLDR: I *do* think there has been a recent drop in transmission, due to combo of different things. Might not be quite as big as seems and might not last.
(22 tweets)
2. UK cases have dropped quite a bit since 19 July, but gone up a bit again over last couple of days. 29K cases today keeps it higher than it was earlier in week but lower than last week.
3. Different patterns for each nation. But Scotland has been dropping consistently since early July in cases & positivity rate. Positivity rates still quite high though.
England dropping since 19 July & also seeing declines in positivity rate. It's not just fewer tests.
4. Regionally, all English regions and almost local authorities are dropping.
Biggest drops in the North of England from the highest peaks. Similar patterns in positivity rates, although they remain v high, esp in the North.
5. But there have been increases in England in last couple of days and these are seen in all regions.
So regions dropped together and have then (recently) risen together too.
6. Now ONS today showed increases in prevalence everywhere except Scotland.
But because you can test +ve a few weeks after initial infection, ONS often comes down later than *new* cases. Came down 2 weeks after Scottish cases...
Still, I'll return to ONS later!
7. If covid really dropping, we'd expect to see hospital admission dropping about 7-10 days later. We see that in Scotland, and we *might* be seeing it in England - admissions always lower at weekend though, so let's see what data says early next week.
8. Regionally there is some variation in hospital admissions - NW dropping and Midlands flattening but NE only just flattening and London and SW still going up...
But no doubt that vaccinations have massively helped us avoid the January disaster (@jburnmurdoch )
9. And just to say, even though hospital admissions/occupany much lower than peak (at the moment), it has implications for staffing & for capacity nonetheless as @NuffieldTrust pointed out today!
10. And yes, most hospital admissions are *because* of covid and not just with covid!
Accelerated growth due to that is now over. Cases have fallen less in over 60s (perhaps also delaying down hospital reductions).
14. Plus ONS ages (again) show that actually prevalence in 18-49 year olds is flat - only kids really going up. This supports idea that *new* infections in young & youngish adults might be falling.
15. Behaviour is also important. The ONS social survey a few weeks ago showed that most people were worried about 19th July.
16. And many intended to keep with protective behaviours - including wearing masks, trying to meet outside, opening windows, keeping social distancing.
What people aren't keen is doing lateral flow tests which could spot mildly or non symptomatic infections.
17. And, as it happens, after 19th July there was an increase in meeting people outdoors and indoors but NOT a massive jump. People didn't really change their behaviour...
Plus 6% (!) of pop said they were isolating. So the pingdemic might genuinely have helped slow things down
18. Finally, testing willingness... While I do think there are genuine falls, there might also be some reluctance to get tested.
Tests have fallen this week. Some of that is school holidays, some is less covid but some might be reluctance to need to isolate or ping your friends
19. When compared with the King's College symptom tracker app (where reporting symptoms carries no obligation for you or your contacts) you see flattening growth but not a drop.
20. I *don't* think we've reached 'herd immunity'.
If we had, you wouldn't expect drops everywhere at same time (different levels of immunity), & you'd expect a flatter peak. Plus Israel, which has higher vax rates, is still climbing. We've just not vaxxed enough.
21. So basically, I do think a combo of school disruption, pingdemic, no football and cautious behaviours has brought cases down. I think some reluctance to get a test might have made that look more dramatic.
I also think latest opening only now starting to show up.
22. School holidays will help, but changing requirements re isolation, less cautious behaviour plus big events (e.g. Latitude festival) likely to offset that. I expect cases to go up again.
Return from holidays to schools & unis in Sept will be potentially difficult. /END
PS note that in Scotland, football ended earlier, schools broke up for holidays at the end of June and their final opening (clubs etc) isn't until mid August.
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🧵War causes direct civilian deaths but also indirect deaths over the following years.
Recent paper estimates eventual total direct & indirect deaths in Gaza attributable to the war - 10% of entire pop'n.
I want to explain these estimates and why deaths must be counted. 1/13
Why count casualties from war anyway? For moral, legal and strategic reasons.
1 - owe it to those who have died
2 - International law says must count & identify dead as far as possible
3 - monitor progress of war & learn from tactics
2/13
There are direct and indirect casualties of war. Direct deaths include those who killed by fighting or bombs.
Indirect deaths are those that die when they would otherwise have lived because of one or more of: lack of food, healthcare, housing, sanitation, income, hope. 3/13
THREAD: the summer Covid wave in the UK continues.
Basically, there is a LOT of Covid around and not a lot of other respiratory viruses.
If you have cold or flu symptoms, it's probably Covid.
The latest hospital data from England shows steady, quite high levels. 1/8
But admissions don't tell us how much virus is circulating more generally. The best (but imperfect) measure we have is wasterwater measurements, and only in Scotland and not England.
Scotland's wastewater is showing a huge July peak - highest since Omicron's 1st yr in 2022 2/8
Because different people shed different amounts of virus and variants can matter too, you can't for sure infer how many people were infected between different wasterwater peaks. BUT given the size, I'd say it's pretty likely this is the largest peak since 2022 in Scotland 3/8
Quick thread on current Covid situation in England and Long Covid.
I have Thoughts about the Inquiry Report published yesterday but am still trying to organise them.
TLDR: high Covid levels remain, Long Covid remains 1/11
This wave is not over. While the number of admissions with Covid remains lower than the autumn/winter waves, it has now remained highsh for several weeks.
This means there are a lot of people out there getting sick - and having their work, plans and holidays disrupted. 2/11
Scottish wastewater data to 9 July shows a sharp decrease, suggesting that prevalence might be on its way down.
Obviously Scotland and England can have different dynamics, but it’s the best we’ve got as long as England refuses to analyse its own wastwater. 3/11
THREAD: Given tomorrow's election, I've been thinking about our nation's (poor) health, the wider determinants of health and how these have worsened and what it means for policy....
TLDR: worrying only about NHS & social care is missing the point
let's dive in... 1/25
The UK has a health problem. After steady gains in life expectancy for decades, it flatlined during the austerity years and fell for the first time this century with the Covid pandemic.
The number of people out of work for long term sickness is near record levels. 2/25
There are huge inequalities between rich & poor. Boys born in the most deprived areas can expect to die almost 10 years earlier than their peers in the least deprived areas.
Even worse, they can expect to spend 18 fewer years of their life in good health (52 vs 70 years) 3/25
As ever, I am getting lots of pushback.
Here is a compilation of the European countries I've found with recent wastewater data. Some are going up a bit, some down a bit, some are flat, none are anywhere near previous peaks.
I can't see anything here to be panic anyone. 1/3
I can't find the dashboard for Spain, but others saying it is in a wave. Perhaps it is. England has just had one - the last data we had (a couple of weeks ago from Bob Hawkins) looked as if our wave had peaked.
So, I'm not seeing reason to think things are terrible here! 2/3
Yes there are new variants growing right now. They are not growing faster than JN.1 grew in December and that wave did not end up as bad as feared.
Clearly it remains true that Covid is NOT a seasonal disease (unlike Flu and RSV)
3/3