And speaking of the Olympics ... is this as important as the medal count?
2/5
Japan is under a "state of emergency" and as Apple mobility shows, they are severely restricting their movements (the Olympics started July 23).
(Apple aggregates location data services for various areas)
3/5
Google also aggregates movement of their phones and they similarly show Tokyo businesses have essentially closed, mass transit is empty and even walks in the park are down since the opening ceremonies (July 23).
4/5
What did Tokyo get from the Olympics?
* $Billions spent on sports facilities that will rarely get used again
* massive disruption life and business, lost income
* no tourism
* A spike in delta variant cases that will last a while
The blowback will be big and profound.
5/5
Worth noting that former Prime Minister Abe was strutting around like a Peacock in front of the world at the closing ceremonies of the Rio games in 2016 celebrating that the next games would be in Tokyo.
He did not even attend the opening ceremonies last week.
nuff said
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Polymarket recession odds peaked at 65% on May 1st, the April ISM release date, suggesting Liberation Day and the 20% stock market correction did not damage the economy, as the "soft data" warned.
Subsequent April data confirmed this.
Will May see more of the same?
🧵
2/12
The prevailing narrative in the market for months has been that the labor market is going to fall apart, forcing the Fed to cut rates.
This has not happened, and so far, the "soft" (survey) data have been wildly off in predicting the economy.
3/12
ISM Employment upticked in May from April. The first monthly "May" data point suggests the labor market is still not weakening.
See the red line on the right. With increased tariffs (red line to the left), the prices of goods originating from China are increasing rapidly.
Also note that the Chinese-originated price rise (red line to the right) began around May 1st, the same time truflation started its upward march.
3/5
From the FT:
The Yale Budget Lab says the average US family would pay $2,800 more for the same basket of products purchased last year, should tariffs remain at their current level, with lower-income homes more exposed.
Chinese products being sold in the US have already seen marked increases in retail prices, according to analysis of high-frequency data from PriceStats by Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School.
ISM was released this morning, marking the first monthly data point since Liberation Day.
It beat expectations and is not giving indications that manufacturers "froze" or "hit a wall" post Liberation Day.
--
*US APRIL ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX FALLS TO 48.7; EST. 47.9
2/9
It is consistent with decent NON-TARIFF growth.
3/9
Why did bonds not like it (yields moved higher)? Maybe prices paid (tariffs?)