Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: Bad.
* Cases, +1207% over 5wks, from 27 to 349/day (37.2 per 100k)
* Positivity, from 2.4% to a record-high 16.9%+
* Infection rate, 1.32-1.46
* Hospitalizations rising quickly, +72% in 1wk, +142% in 2wks
* Deaths are up too

1/

Perspective.

We are a week away from surpassing our peak from last summer. And that's *with* more than 400k ppl vaccinated.

This is a complete disaster. And the worst part is that it was completely preventable. We have vaccines.

2/

Also, deaths are rising pretty quickly, so much so that they will likely surpass last summer in the next week.

And, again, almost all of these deaths were preventable. Just 3wks ago, we were avg'ing 0.1 death per day. As close to zero as you can get. Now we're up to 2.1/day.

3/

Here we have monthly data for the pandemic.

The big thing here is to compare the data to last summer.

And also notice how sharply everything spiked. We went from the lowest numbers of the entire pandemic in June to some of the highest in July. August will be bad. Real bad.

4/

Here are daily cases over the past month.

Cases are up an astronomical 1486%.

We were avg'ing 22 new cases/day on June 30. Today, July 31, we're up to 349/day.

5/

Zooming out, we can see that the peak from last summer was slightly higher than where we're at now.

But we can also see that there are no signs things will slow down anytime soon. Next week will be worse than any point last summer.

The only question is how high will it go?

6/

According to CovidActNow, our infection rate is currently at 1.32, which for context is higher than any point last summer - and higher than any point over the winter.

And in the task force briefing on Thursday, they actually pegged the rate even higher, at a scary 1.46.

7/

To explain what that means - and this is how they explained it at the briefing - we're essentially seeing every 2 cases lead to an additional 3 new cases.

If you do the math, those 2 cases would become 10 new cases after two weeks.

8/

But we're not starting with 2 cases. Just today, there were 475 new cases reported. So let's play that out.

With an infection rate of 1.46, those 475 cases create another 645 new cases after 5 days. After 10 days, this grows to over 1,190. And over 2,200 after just 15 days.

9/

But that 2,200 additional cases are just the 475 new cases from today.

Yesterday, there were 465 new cases reported. And in 15 days, they'll also create 2,200 additional cases.

That's over 4,000 cases, 2wks out, created just from the new cases from the past 2 days.

10/

NOTE: The above is not a prediction. But it should be a warning. Because that's what will happen if we don't get the infection rate down.

Remember, the only way to stop the spread is to get the infection rate below 1.

11/

There are ways to get the infection rate down. In fact, the best way is to get people vaccinated.

And while we are seeing an increase in new ppl vax'd, it's not happening fast enough. In fact, slightly fewer (-1416) new ppl were vax'd in July than in June.

12/

Other ways to drive down the infection rate...
* keep distance
* wear masks
* increase ventilation
* improve air quality
* gather outdoors
* test, trace, & isolate cases/contacts

13/

But by far the best and easiest way to fight the virus, even delta, is vaccinations...

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1421066753665339394

14/

And:

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1419308647054671874

15/

And:

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1421499504486883330

16/

Our overall case rate has climbed to a very dangerous 37.2 per 100k.

But almost all cases are coming from those who are not vax'd & have never had covid. And when you look at just that group, the case rate 153 per 100k.

For context, 90 per 100k was our winter peak.

17/

By the way, we just set a new record-high for positivity rate, 5wks after setting a record-low.

The last full week of June, we were at 2.4%+, then we spiked to 16.9%+ this last week of July.

18/

That means we're missing a significant number of cases. In fact, with positivity rates that high, true case numbers are likely at least 3x higher.

And so the 350 avg daily cases we're seeing right now are really more like 1,050 new cases/day.

19/

And hospitalizations are skyrocketing.

After dropping to 52 on June 22, covid patients are up to 279 now and are on pace to exceed our peak from last summer in the next week.

20/

Deaths are rising as well and are on pace to exceed most of last summer next week. And there are no indications that we'll see fewer deaths anytime soon.

Remember, deaths lag about 3-4 wks behind cases. And cases are still climbing.

21/

I'm glad we're starting to see vaccine mandates.

We should have seen those sooner. And hopefully we'll see more in the coming weeks.

22/

I'm very worried about kids, by the way.

Those younger than 12 (e.g., my daughter) are not yet eligible for vaccines.

Just under 15% of those ages 12-15 are fully vax'd. And only 25% of those ages 16-20 are fully vax'd.

23/

We should be holding vaccine events at schools for registration days and back-to-school events. For kids and for their families.

Seriously, why aren't we doing this?

This is pretty simple. But we're not even doing the east stuff.

24/

And with $500M of critical deferred maintenance in our schools, they have poor air quality and HVAC systems that can't keep the heat out.

Kids are pretty good about masks, teens less so. But when it's so hot, it's hard to keep your mask on.

And masks off = covid spread.

25/25