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Below is a summary from my recent talk on 33 core beliefs prevalent in modern culture contrasted with our underlying biophysical realities.
NB: This was intended to be as a single presentation but am posting each segment separately here.
Below is a summary from my recent talk on 33 core beliefs prevalent in modern culture contrasted with our underlying biophysical realities.
NB: This was intended to be as a single presentation but am posting each segment separately here.
Table of Contents & time stamps.
Myth #33 - The experts have ALL the answers
We live as part of a system. If we're to intervene for better futures, we need people seeing the same map - aka share an aerial view of the topography of the human ecosystem. #Generalists #SystemsBlind
We live as part of a system. If we're to intervene for better futures, we need people seeing the same map - aka share an aerial view of the topography of the human ecosystem. #Generalists #SystemsBlind
Myth #32: Humans Are Separate From Nature
We are related to all life on Earth. As biological creatures: we go through life seeking the same emotional states as our ancient ancestors in a (very) novel environment.
We are related to all life on Earth. As biological creatures: we go through life seeking the same emotional states as our ancient ancestors in a (very) novel environment.
Myth #31: Humans Are Mostly Selfish
I believe that groups, communities, nations capable of coordinating their actions will always win out over groups with more selfish individuals and less coordinated behavior.
I believe that groups, communities, nations capable of coordinating their actions will always win out over groups with more selfish individuals and less coordinated behavior.
Myth #30: More Is Better!
Once basic needs are satisfied, we are primed to respond to the comparison of better versus worse, more than we are to a little versus a lot in a culture that condones and advertises material wealth.
Once basic needs are satisfied, we are primed to respond to the comparison of better versus worse, more than we are to a little versus a lot in a culture that condones and advertises material wealth.
Myth #29: “Someday I’ll Have enough”
Our ancestral reward architecture misfires in a world of material abundance, and for most of us, repeated patterns of consumption lead to the WANTING of things being stronger than the HAVING.
Our ancestral reward architecture misfires in a world of material abundance, and for most of us, repeated patterns of consumption lead to the WANTING of things being stronger than the HAVING.
Myth #28: We Care About the Future!
We have great intentions to start new healthier paths tomorrow, until tomorrow becomes today! Because the future isn't real to us emotionally, it doesn't become real in our behaviors.
We have great intentions to start new healthier paths tomorrow, until tomorrow becomes today! Because the future isn't real to us emotionally, it doesn't become real in our behaviors.
Myth #27: Everyone Has Their Own Truth
We have stone age minds in a modern culture. As such, we have difficulty separating the virtual from the physical world. Science isn't perfect, but it's better than e.g astrology for solving problems.
We have stone age minds in a modern culture. As such, we have difficulty separating the virtual from the physical world. Science isn't perfect, but it's better than e.g astrology for solving problems.
Myth #26: Truth Matters
Without our citizenry using the same language and agreeing on fundamental truths, we are well and truly lost. Somehow, we need a mythopoetic vision that unites objectivity and subjectivity.
Without our citizenry using the same language and agreeing on fundamental truths, we are well and truly lost. Somehow, we need a mythopoetic vision that unites objectivity and subjectivity.
Myth #25: Energy Is Merely a Commodity
Like a fish completely unaware to swimming in life giving water, our modern society lives each day awash in energy services without realizing it. We are #EnergyBlind.
Like a fish completely unaware to swimming in life giving water, our modern society lives each day awash in energy services without realizing it. We are #EnergyBlind.
Myth #24: The American Dream is Based on Hard Work and Cleverness
Globally, we now use around 500 billion human labor equivalents of fossil hydrocarbons, - the U.S. ==> 20% of this total, despite having only 4% of the world's population. #EnergyBlind
Globally, we now use around 500 billion human labor equivalents of fossil hydrocarbons, - the U.S. ==> 20% of this total, despite having only 4% of the world's population. #EnergyBlind
Myth #23: Oil: The USA Will Be the Next Saudi Arabia
Oil functions as the hemoglobin of modern civilization. But, especially in USA, it is getting more costly in energy, dollar, and environmental terms. We've drained America First.
Oil functions as the hemoglobin of modern civilization. But, especially in USA, it is getting more costly in energy, dollar, and environmental terms. We've drained America First.
Myth #22: We Can Always Get More Resources if We Have More Money
From a biophysical perspective, even though we can print more money, we cannot print more resources, only extract what exists faster. Credit is a syphon from the future. #EnergyBlind
From a biophysical perspective, even though we can print more money, we cannot print more resources, only extract what exists faster. Credit is a syphon from the future. #EnergyBlind
Myth #21: Renewables Can Power THIS Civilization
Renewables work, but the trifecta of higher cost natural resources, higher complexity solar inputs, and the end of cheap money will necessitate a biophysically smaller economy. #EnergyBlind
Renewables work, but the trifecta of higher cost natural resources, higher complexity solar inputs, and the end of cheap money will necessitate a biophysically smaller economy. #EnergyBlind
Myth #20: In the future we won't need oil due to Peak Demand!!
Oil does much more for us than just gasoline. The peaking of oil, whether by demand or supply will mean a drastic change in our social, economic, and institutional arrangements. #EnergyBlind
Oil does much more for us than just gasoline. The peaking of oil, whether by demand or supply will mean a drastic change in our social, economic, and institutional arrangements. #EnergyBlind
Myth #19: We Can Achieve Net Zero!! (by 2050 or any date)
People mostly use the term #netzero as a shorthand for maintaining economic growth while imagining some magical technological salvation in the future. #EnergyBlind
People mostly use the term #netzero as a shorthand for maintaining economic growth while imagining some magical technological salvation in the future. #EnergyBlind
Myth #18: As Earth runs out of resources, We’ll Colonize Outer Space!!
Available net energy dictates what we can and can't do. As such we are headed for an Earth Trek future, and need technology consistent with lower material throughput. #EnergyBlind
Available net energy dictates what we can and can't do. As such we are headed for an Earth Trek future, and need technology consistent with lower material throughput. #EnergyBlind
Myth #17: Growth Is Forever
Growth has been slow to nonexistent for 99% of our species existence, because it's based on physical inputs and outputs. The last century has been an anomaly - expecting the coming decades to repeat this experience is a myth.
Growth has been slow to nonexistent for 99% of our species existence, because it's based on physical inputs and outputs. The last century has been an anomaly - expecting the coming decades to repeat this experience is a myth.
Myth #16: GDP Is the Right Goal for Society
GDP and energy are tightly linked. Globally, GWP==>GWB, Gross World Burning. The question of our era is do we have to be a mindless energy hungry superorganism going forward? Can we do better? #HungryAmoeba
GDP and energy are tightly linked. Globally, GWP==>GWB, Gross World Burning. The question of our era is do we have to be a mindless energy hungry superorganism going forward? Can we do better? #HungryAmoeba
Myth #15: Overpopulation Is the Main Driver
We have 2 population problems: 1) a population of humans and 2) a population of resource intensive things. Both are symptoms of underlying overshoot based on a one time pulse of carbon energy. #EnergyBlind
We have 2 population problems: 1) a population of humans and 2) a population of resource intensive things. Both are symptoms of underlying overshoot based on a one time pulse of carbon energy. #EnergyBlind
Myth #14: Technology Will Solve It!
Technology is mostly a vector for more energy demand in the future. We're currently using technology to build a bigger heat engine.
Technology is mostly a vector for more energy demand in the future. We're currently using technology to build a bigger heat engine.
Myth #13: The Environment Is Part of the Economy
The myth that the environment is merely a subset of the economy is now only a myth to economists. Earth, its ecosystems, and natures services enable our markets, our lives, and our futures. #SystemsBlind
The myth that the environment is merely a subset of the economy is now only a myth to economists. Earth, its ecosystems, and natures services enable our markets, our lives, and our futures. #SystemsBlind
Myth #12: The Natural World Is Ours
The reality is that Earth is not ours. In a lonely universe, the species we share our planet with are treasures. We and our descendants will miss them when they're gone.
The reality is that Earth is not ours. In a lonely universe, the species we share our planet with are treasures. We and our descendants will miss them when they're gone.
Myth #11: Climate Change Is the Core Problem
Climate change one of many symptoms of (energy) overshoot. Animal/insect population decline, habitat loss, chemical/endocrine disruption are leading us to a 6th mass extinction
Climate change one of many symptoms of (energy) overshoot. Animal/insect population decline, habitat loss, chemical/endocrine disruption are leading us to a 6th mass extinction
Myth #10: Billionaires and Politicians Are in Charge
We are now face a perfect storm of challenges which are systemic, abstract, complex, not imminent, until they are, and have no easy answers within current accepted policy frameworks. #SystemsBlind
We are now face a perfect storm of challenges which are systemic, abstract, complex, not imminent, until they are, and have no easy answers within current accepted policy frameworks. #SystemsBlind
Myth #9: Financial Markets Give Us the Right Signals for the Future
We're using monetary alchemy to maintain today's consumption by pulling resources forward in time. This temporary stimulus is leading to cultural complacency about our real problems.
We're using monetary alchemy to maintain today's consumption by pulling resources forward in time. This temporary stimulus is leading to cultural complacency about our real problems.
Myth #8: Stimulus Is Permanent
Relative to our underlying productivity, we have a financial bill long overdue. But rather than pay it, we keep racking up new charges, all of which will eventually need energy and materials to be paid back.
Relative to our underlying productivity, we have a financial bill long overdue. But rather than pay it, we keep racking up new charges, all of which will eventually need energy and materials to be paid back.
Myth #7: We Need to Crash the System to Get a Fresh Start
The complexity and interdependence of the human system means that crises can emerge rapidly and could set off a reinforcing disintegration of the whole system from which there is no recovery.
The complexity and interdependence of the human system means that crises can emerge rapidly and could set off a reinforcing disintegration of the whole system from which there is no recovery.
Myth #6: The Use of Nuclear Weapons Is Unthinkable
It's hard to believe anyone is delusional enough to think they can win a nuclear war but the U.S. has developed plans it thinks will work. The use of tactical nukes this decade is now high.
It's hard to believe anyone is delusional enough to think they can win a nuclear war but the U.S. has developed plans it thinks will work. The use of tactical nukes this decade is now high.
Myth #5: Fossil Fuel Companies Are at Fault
[Controversy alert: plz take the time to watch before commenting]
Fossil hydrocarbons are the enablers of our economic enterprise, fossil fuel companies are the distributors. We are the addicts.
[Controversy alert: plz take the time to watch before commenting]
Fossil hydrocarbons are the enablers of our economic enterprise, fossil fuel companies are the distributors. We are the addicts.
Myth #4: Capitalism Is to Blame
[Controversy alert: plz take the time to watch before commenting]
Many blame capitalism for our problems - but capitalism was merely the tool humans used to distribute the energy surplus of the carbon pulse #EnergyBlind
[Controversy alert: plz take the time to watch before commenting]
Many blame capitalism for our problems - but capitalism was merely the tool humans used to distribute the energy surplus of the carbon pulse #EnergyBlind
Myth #3: Humans Are Bad
So far, we have acted more like homo colitis, clever man, or pan Ignis, Fire Ape, than Homo sapiens, Wise Man. Are humans bad? This can't be answered, because our story is still being written.
So far, we have acted more like homo colitis, clever man, or pan Ignis, Fire Ape, than Homo sapiens, Wise Man. Are humans bad? This can't be answered, because our story is still being written.
Myth #2: We Face a Shortage of Energy
At 100 to 1 exosomatic energy surplus, leading to substantial excess material wealth in the U.S., we don't truly face a shortage of resources. Our challenge might better be described as a longage of expectations.
At 100 to 1 exosomatic energy surplus, leading to substantial excess material wealth in the U.S., we don't truly face a shortage of resources. Our challenge might better be described as a longage of expectations.
Myth #1: We Are Doomed (1/3)
We are starting to realize the road is closed ahead of us re our current cultural expectations. But instead of crafting a new path to the future, most people are gravitate towards rapture ideologies ==> utopian or dystopian.
We are starting to realize the road is closed ahead of us re our current cultural expectations. But instead of crafting a new path to the future, most people are gravitate towards rapture ideologies ==> utopian or dystopian.
Myth #1: We Are Doomed (2/3)
We have robust (renewable) technology, that in tandem with depleting fossil hydrocarbons can support vibrant, meaningful, advanced societies, they will just look different than we have today.
We have robust (renewable) technology, that in tandem with depleting fossil hydrocarbons can support vibrant, meaningful, advanced societies, they will just look different than we have today.
Myth #1: We Are Doomed (3/3)
We need many more people designing alternative paths forward - informed, and yes, constrained by our biophysical reality. But spurred on by a love of nature, discovery, and a shared future.
We need many more people designing alternative paths forward - informed, and yes, constrained by our biophysical reality. But spurred on by a love of nature, discovery, and a shared future.
Risk Choreography, 15 Categories of Interventions, and Wild Ideas:
Final 1/2 Our society -and world - now faces a rolling cascade of risks and opportunities. We can't know the future but we can infer what things are likely, and even more important (and easier), which things are unlikely. Knowing what is unlikely is a huge advantage in planning.
Final 2/2 The goal ==> to increase the number of humans who both understand and care about our collective future to convene a larger conversation pointing towards the realistic paths still open to us, and away from dead-ends/implausible futures. #SpeciesLevelConversation
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