Okay.
As someone who's been to ten Coachellas, Andy's prompt really got stuck in my head. So I went full statistics nerd on this problem and boy I sure have made some "insights."
Let's see who's had the biggest rises and falls in Coachella history - as told by the font size.
As someone who's been to ten Coachellas, Andy's prompt really got stuck in my head. So I went full statistics nerd on this problem and boy I sure have made some "insights."
Let's see who's had the biggest rises and falls in Coachella history - as told by the font size.
https://twitter.com/andykhouri/status/1421113320921178114
A disclaimer: Yes, I know Coachella is owned by the absolute opposite of Good People. Yes, I'm morally opposed to a lot of what the festival stands for.
But it's where I see my far-flung college friends. It's tradition. It's my vacation. No ethical consumption. Let's continue.
But it's where I see my far-flung college friends. It's tradition. It's my vacation. No ethical consumption. Let's continue.
SO! Let's talk METHODOLOGY!
Utilizing the font size of the Coachella posters, I've divided bands into ranks 1-6.
6 = deep undercard, last 2 lines.
5 = undercard, 3rd line.
4 = middle paragraph
3 = larger font, subheadliner
2 = directly under headliner
1 = headliner
Utilizing the font size of the Coachella posters, I've divided bands into ranks 1-6.
6 = deep undercard, last 2 lines.
5 = undercard, 3rd line.
4 = middle paragraph
3 = larger font, subheadliner
2 = directly under headliner
1 = headliner
I converted every Coachella poster from 1999 to 2020 (which didn't occur but which still imparted clout, which is really what we're tracking here) into a spreadsheet, tracking these variables:
∆ UPWARDS -- YEARS FOR ∆
∆ DOWNWARDS -- YEARS FOR ∆
SUSTAINED FONT SIZE OVER YEARS
∆ UPWARDS -- YEARS FOR ∆
∆ DOWNWARDS -- YEARS FOR ∆
SUSTAINED FONT SIZE OVER YEARS
Finally, I converted deltas into points.
For example: If an artist went from a 6 to a 1 - deep undercard to Biggest Font Headliner - they scored more points than someone who started at a 2 or a 3.
Those points were then divided by the years it took to achieve the delta.
For example: If an artist went from a 6 to a 1 - deep undercard to Biggest Font Headliner - they scored more points than someone who started at a 2 or a 3.
Those points were then divided by the years it took to achieve the delta.
I also scored artists based on how long they sustained a given font size in the poster. So we could account not just for meteoric rises and falls, but also those who've stood the test of time in a smaller, less flashy font over the festival's 21 year history.
And that's it. That's the whole methodology.
It resulted in winners for Biggest Rise, Biggest Fall, and Most Sustained - as well as a bonkers balanced combo champion score I call
THE MONARCH OF COACHELLA
Let's see what cool weird stuff we found along the way, shall we?
It resulted in winners for Biggest Rise, Biggest Fall, and Most Sustained - as well as a bonkers balanced combo champion score I call
THE MONARCH OF COACHELLA
Let's see what cool weird stuff we found along the way, shall we?
ARTIST WHO HAS PLAYED COACHELLA THE MOST:
El-P, with a record 6 shows if you count his re-emergence as one half of RUN THE JEWELS, which I did.
El also has an amazing sustain and rise, holding at 5 in 2003, 2007, and 2013 before beginning a three-show rise to Level 2 in 2020!
El-P, with a record 6 shows if you count his re-emergence as one half of RUN THE JEWELS, which I did.
El also has an amazing sustain and rise, holding at 5 in 2003, 2007, and 2013 before beginning a three-show rise to Level 2 in 2020!
(I was at RTJ's first Coachella show and you could tell El-P was having the time of his fucking life. Looking at the numbers, I can see why: he and Killer Mike were finally conquering after years of being hidden down the line)
THE WINNER FOR ∆ RISE
Disclosure.
They made their Coachella debut in 2013 at a Level 5 - and the next year, in 2014, were at Level 2.
They then sustained that level in 2016 and 2020, which is similarly impressive.
Disclosure.
They made their Coachella debut in 2013 at a Level 5 - and the next year, in 2014, were at Level 2.
They then sustained that level in 2016 and 2020, which is similarly impressive.
∆ RISE RUNNER-UPS
Sleigh Bells -- 6 to 3 in 1 Year
Christopher Lawrence -- 6 to 3 in 1 Year (Coachella's earliest ∆ Superstar)
Zedd -- 5 to 2 in 2 years
Queens of the Stone Age -- 4 to 2 in 1 year
M.I.A. -- 4 to 2 in 1 year
Sage Francis -- 4 to 6 in 1 year
Sleigh Bells -- 6 to 3 in 1 Year
Christopher Lawrence -- 6 to 3 in 1 Year (Coachella's earliest ∆ Superstar)
Zedd -- 5 to 2 in 2 years
Queens of the Stone Age -- 4 to 2 in 1 year
M.I.A. -- 4 to 2 in 1 year
Sage Francis -- 4 to 6 in 1 year
ONLY THREE ARTISTS HAVE EVER RISEN FROM 6 TO 1 IN THE HISTORY OF COACHELLA
Kendrick Lamar -- 6 to 1 in 5 years
The Killers -- 6 to 1 in 5 years
Childish Gambino -- 6 to 1 in 7 years
Kendrick Lamar -- 6 to 1 in 5 years
The Killers -- 6 to 1 in 5 years
Childish Gambino -- 6 to 1 in 7 years
Several artists have gone from 6 to 2, including St. Vincent, Justice, Girl Talk, and Grizzly Bear...
... but none faster than Ellie Goulding, who made a meteoric rise up the Coachella line-up from 6 to 2 in just 3 years.
... but none faster than Ellie Goulding, who made a meteoric rise up the Coachella line-up from 6 to 2 in just 3 years.
The longest treks up the poster?
A Perfect Circle -- 4 to 2 in 18 years
Diplo - 6 to 2 in 14 years
Jurassic 5 - 5 to 2 in 13 years
Modest Mouse -- 4 to 2 in 13 years
But one band stands triumphant when it comes to going all the way from the bottom to the top over many years...
A Perfect Circle -- 4 to 2 in 18 years
Diplo - 6 to 2 in 14 years
Jurassic 5 - 5 to 2 in 13 years
Modest Mouse -- 4 to 2 in 13 years
But one band stands triumphant when it comes to going all the way from the bottom to the top over many years...
LCD SOUNDSYSTEM made their Coachella debut in 2004 at a level 5, then slowly worked up each successive year.
2007 -- Level 4
2010 -- Level 2
2016 -- Level 1, a level only achieved by 58 artists in the history of the festival.
(They're also one of my all-time faves, so, YAY)
2007 -- Level 4
2010 -- Level 2
2016 -- Level 1, a level only achieved by 58 artists in the history of the festival.
(They're also one of my all-time faves, so, YAY)
THE BLACK KEYS have a similar rise, though over a shorter period of time. They went from level 5 to level 1 in 8 years over 5 festivals! The most expressive ∆ in the whole bunch, a literal countdown.
2004 - 5
2007 - 4
2009 - 3
2011 - 2
2012 - 1
2004 - 5
2007 - 4
2009 - 3
2011 - 2
2012 - 1
Some quick stats before we continue!
ARTISTS WHO HAVE PLAYED COACHELLA: 2017
ARTISTS WHO'VE PLAYED MORE THAN ONCE: 443
ARTISTS WHO'VE PLAYED 3 OR MORE TIMES: 144
ARTISTS WHO'VE PLAYED 4 OR MORE TIMES: 35
ARTISTS WHO'VE PLAYED 5 OR MORE TIMES: 8
ARTISTS WHO'VE PLAYED 6 TIMES: 1
ARTISTS WHO HAVE PLAYED COACHELLA: 2017
ARTISTS WHO'VE PLAYED MORE THAN ONCE: 443
ARTISTS WHO'VE PLAYED 3 OR MORE TIMES: 144
ARTISTS WHO'VE PLAYED 4 OR MORE TIMES: 35
ARTISTS WHO'VE PLAYED 5 OR MORE TIMES: 8
ARTISTS WHO'VE PLAYED 6 TIMES: 1
Alright. We've talked about the ∆ Rise triumphs.
Let's talk about those ignoble ∆ Falls. Those artists who started with big fonts...
... and found themselves in the undercard.
Let's talk about those ignoble ∆ Falls. Those artists who started with big fonts...
... and found themselves in the undercard.
Only 71 artists out of 2017 have ever been "font demoted" in Coachella history. That's roughly 3.5%, so it's quite rare.
By a points value alone, the largest/longest fall in Coachella Font History is Sasha, who's performed 5 times over 14 years and gone from Level 2 to Level 5.
By a points value alone, the largest/longest fall in Coachella Font History is Sasha, who's performed 5 times over 14 years and gone from Level 2 to Level 5.
But for much more meteoric drops, we can look to...
PJ Harvey -- 2 to 5 in 4 years
and
Kaiser Chiefs -- 3 to 6 in 5 years
Both are very rare multi-level drops, which happens almost NEVER in the history of Coachella.
PJ Harvey -- 2 to 5 in 4 years
and
Kaiser Chiefs -- 3 to 6 in 5 years
Both are very rare multi-level drops, which happens almost NEVER in the history of Coachella.
One of the only other ones - and it's a bit of an anomaly, statistically - is the previously mentioned Killers.
Brandon Flowers returned to the festival as a solo artist at Level 3 just two years later, which is a rare downturn from Level 1 status.
Brandon Flowers returned to the festival as a solo artist at Level 3 just two years later, which is a rare downturn from Level 1 status.
Normally, once an artist at Coachella hits Level 1 Headline Status, they remain there. They either never return or return at that level, which has happened seven times.
Those multi-headline artists are:
THE ARCADE FIRE
MUSE
RADIOHEAD
THE CURE
RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS
TOOL
& BJORK
Those multi-headline artists are:
THE ARCADE FIRE
MUSE
RADIOHEAD
THE CURE
RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS
TOOL
& BJORK
Side note: of all the multi-headline artists, the most meteoric rise belongs to The Arcade Fire, who went from level 4 to Level 2 in two years, then headlined twice at Level 1 in 2011 and 2014.
I saw both shows. They were goddamn magnificent.
I saw both shows. They were goddamn magnificent.
BUT!
There is ONE ARTIST who has ever reached the Level 1 summit and then returned to the festival diminished to Level 2.
Only one, in the entire history of Coachella. The only man strong enough to bury his ego and keep playing.
I speak, of course, of BECK.
There is ONE ARTIST who has ever reached the Level 1 summit and then returned to the festival diminished to Level 2.
Only one, in the entire history of Coachella. The only man strong enough to bury his ego and keep playing.
I speak, of course, of BECK.
Okay, so we've tracked ∆ Rise and ∆ Fall.
But who among the over two thousand Coachella artists and 21 years has managed to sustain their position?
Who are the mainstays? The legends, both headlining and undercard?
Let's take a look at those who Hold Their Font.
But who among the over two thousand Coachella artists and 21 years has managed to sustain their position?
Who are the mainstays? The legends, both headlining and undercard?
Let's take a look at those who Hold Their Font.
There are 25 artists who've sustained their place on the poster over three separate festivals. Among them are...
Zedd - Level 2 for 5 years
Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Level 2 for 7 years
New Order - Level 2 for 12 years
El-P - Level 5 for 10 years
Lee Burridge - Level 5 for 17 years
Zedd - Level 2 for 5 years
Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Level 2 for 7 years
New Order - Level 2 for 12 years
El-P - Level 5 for 10 years
Lee Burridge - Level 5 for 17 years
There are two headliners who have sustained their position for 3 separate festivals.
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Level 1 for 10 years
&
Radiohead - Level 1 for 13 years
Thom Yorke, Radiohead's frontman, has also sustained Level 2 over two festivals for 10 years.
The GOAT, obvs.
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Level 1 for 10 years
&
Radiohead - Level 1 for 13 years
Thom Yorke, Radiohead's frontman, has also sustained Level 2 over two festivals for 10 years.
The GOAT, obvs.
But! The most sustained three-festival run by any band in Coachella history?
WEEZER. Level 2 for EIGHTEEN FUCKING YEARS.
WEEZER. Level 2 for EIGHTEEN FUCKING YEARS.
Okay, so now we know who had the biggest rise. Who had the biggest fall. And who had the most sustained presence in the desert.
But who, WHO I ASK YOU, will be the MONARCH OF ALL COACHELLA!?
I've crunched the numbers. Let's bring on the TOP TEN and CROWN A WINNER!
But who, WHO I ASK YOU, will be the MONARCH OF ALL COACHELLA!?
I've crunched the numbers. Let's bring on the TOP TEN and CROWN A WINNER!
NUMBER 10
𝗨𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗥𝗪𝗢𝗥𝗟𝗗
3 Appearances
NO ∆ RISE OR FALL
Level 2 sustained for 16 Years
Points Total: 𝟯𝟴𝟰
𝗨𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗥𝗪𝗢𝗥𝗟𝗗
3 Appearances
NO ∆ RISE OR FALL
Level 2 sustained for 16 Years
Points Total: 𝟯𝟴𝟰
NUMBER 9
𝗥𝗔𝗗𝗜𝗢𝗛𝗘𝗔𝗗
3 Appearances
NO ∆ RISE OR FALL
Level 1 sustained for 13 Years
Points Total: 𝟯𝟵𝟬
(With Thom Yorke points added: 𝟱𝟱𝟬)
𝗥𝗔𝗗𝗜𝗢𝗛𝗘𝗔𝗗
3 Appearances
NO ∆ RISE OR FALL
Level 1 sustained for 13 Years
Points Total: 𝟯𝟵𝟬
(With Thom Yorke points added: 𝟱𝟱𝟬)
NUMBER 8
𝗦𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗡𝗖𝗜𝗦
2 Appearances
∆ Rise: Level 6 to Level 4 in One Year
No Sustain
Points Total: 𝟯𝟵𝟵
(I'll admit, this one feels like I messed up a figure somewhere along the line, but that's a VERY good ∆ Rise numerically. Statistics!)
𝗦𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗙𝗥𝗔𝗡𝗖𝗜𝗦
2 Appearances
∆ Rise: Level 6 to Level 4 in One Year
No Sustain
Points Total: 𝟯𝟵𝟵
(I'll admit, this one feels like I messed up a figure somewhere along the line, but that's a VERY good ∆ Rise numerically. Statistics!)
Know what, hold the hell on. I'm retracting this math. I don't like where my shoddy results got me. I think my ∆ points math needs refining.
I'm gonna go back to the points drawing board and try something. BRB.
I'm gonna go back to the points drawing board and try something. BRB.
Okay! So, yes, I found a methodology error.
To crown the MONARCH OF ALL COACHELLA, I'll need to go in and account for each individual ∆ Rise, not just the overall. Right now, a person who has played 2 festivals with one sharp ∆ gets more points than, say, EL-P.
Stay tuned.
To crown the MONARCH OF ALL COACHELLA, I'll need to go in and account for each individual ∆ Rise, not just the overall. Right now, a person who has played 2 festivals with one sharp ∆ gets more points than, say, EL-P.
Stay tuned.
OKAY! THE METHODOLOGY IS FIXED! It's not perfect, but it now takes every ∆ rise and fall into account - which balances a bit better against the two-festival sharp-rise wonders!
Which means we can try once again to crown the
MONARCH OF ALL COACHELLA!
Let the countdown begin!
Which means we can try once again to crown the
MONARCH OF ALL COACHELLA!
Let the countdown begin!
NUMBER 10
𝗘𝗹-𝗣 // 𝗥𝗨𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗝𝗘𝗪𝗘𝗟𝗦
6 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 2
Sustained Level 5 at 3 Fests for 10 Years
Total Points: 𝟰𝟲𝟬
𝗘𝗹-𝗣 // 𝗥𝗨𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗝𝗘𝗪𝗘𝗟𝗦
6 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 2
Sustained Level 5 at 3 Fests for 10 Years
Total Points: 𝟰𝟲𝟬
NUMBER 9
𝗦𝗕𝗧𝗥𝗞𝗧
3 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 6 to Level 3 in 4 Years (@ 3 Fests)
No Sustain
Total Points: 𝟰𝟲𝟳
𝗦𝗕𝗧𝗥𝗞𝗧
3 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 6 to Level 3 in 4 Years (@ 3 Fests)
No Sustain
Total Points: 𝟰𝟲𝟳
NUMBER 8
𝗭𝗘𝗗𝗗
4 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 2 in 2 Years
Sustained Level 2 for 5 Years at 3 Fests
Total Points: 𝟰𝟳𝟮
𝗭𝗘𝗗𝗗
4 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 2 in 2 Years
Sustained Level 2 for 5 Years at 3 Fests
Total Points: 𝟰𝟳𝟮
NUMBER 7
𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗢
3 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 2 in 3 Years (@ 3 fests)
No Sustain
Total Points: 𝟱𝟱𝟭
𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗢
3 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 2 in 3 Years (@ 3 fests)
No Sustain
Total Points: 𝟱𝟱𝟭
NUMBER 7 (TIE!)
𝗖𝗛𝗥𝗜𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗣𝗛𝗘𝗥 𝗟𝗔𝗪𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗖𝗘
4 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 2 in 1 Year
Sustained Level 4 for 6 Years
Total Points: 𝟱𝟱𝟭
𝗖𝗛𝗥𝗜𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗣𝗛𝗘𝗥 𝗟𝗔𝗪𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗖𝗘
4 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 2 in 1 Year
Sustained Level 4 for 6 Years
Total Points: 𝟱𝟱𝟭
NUMBER 6
𝗧𝗛𝗢𝗠 𝗬𝗢𝗥𝗞𝗘 // 𝗥𝗔𝗗𝗜𝗢𝗛𝗘𝗔𝗗
5 Appearances
No ∆
Sustained Level 1 for 13 Years as Radiohead
Sustained Level 2 for 10 Years as Thom Yorke
Total Points: 𝟱𝟲𝟬
𝗧𝗛𝗢𝗠 𝗬𝗢𝗥𝗞𝗘 // 𝗥𝗔𝗗𝗜𝗢𝗛𝗘𝗔𝗗
5 Appearances
No ∆
Sustained Level 1 for 13 Years as Radiohead
Sustained Level 2 for 10 Years as Thom Yorke
Total Points: 𝟱𝟲𝟬
NUMBER 5
𝗤𝗨𝗘𝗘𝗡𝗦 𝗢𝗙 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗡𝗘 𝗔𝗚𝗘
3 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 4 to Level 2 in 1 Year
Sustained Level 2 for 11 Years
Total Points: 𝟱𝟳𝟴
𝗤𝗨𝗘𝗘𝗡𝗦 𝗢𝗙 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗡𝗘 𝗔𝗚𝗘
3 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 4 to Level 2 in 1 Year
Sustained Level 2 for 11 Years
Total Points: 𝟱𝟳𝟴
NUMBER 4
𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗕𝗟𝗔𝗖𝗞 𝗞𝗘𝗬𝗦
5 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 1 in 8 Years
No Sustain.
Total Points: 𝟱𝟵𝟵
𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗕𝗟𝗔𝗖𝗞 𝗞𝗘𝗬𝗦
5 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 1 in 8 Years
No Sustain.
Total Points: 𝟱𝟵𝟵
NUMBER 3
𝗦𝗟𝗘𝗜𝗚𝗛 𝗕𝗘𝗟𝗟𝗦
3 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 6 to Level 3 in 1 Year
Sustained Level 3 for 3 Years
Total Points: 𝟲𝟯𝟴
(Also one of the best shows I've ever seen at Coachella)
𝗦𝗟𝗘𝗜𝗚𝗛 𝗕𝗘𝗟𝗟𝗦
3 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 6 to Level 3 in 1 Year
Sustained Level 3 for 3 Years
Total Points: 𝟲𝟯𝟴
(Also one of the best shows I've ever seen at Coachella)
NUMBER 2
𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗘
4 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 6 to Level 3 in 1 Year
∆ Rise from Level 3 to Level 2 in 4 Years
Sustained Level 2 for 5 Years
Total Points: 𝟳𝟯𝟭
𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗘
4 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 6 to Level 3 in 1 Year
∆ Rise from Level 3 to Level 2 in 4 Years
Sustained Level 2 for 5 Years
Total Points: 𝟳𝟯𝟭
And your MONARCH OF ALL COACHELLA
as proven by MATH and SPREADSHEETS and ARBITRARY NUMERICAL VALUE to represent ABSTRACT MARKETING AND CAREER CONCEPTS
is...
as proven by MATH and SPREADSHEETS and ARBITRARY NUMERICAL VALUE to represent ABSTRACT MARKETING AND CAREER CONCEPTS
is...
𝗗𝗜𝗦𝗖𝗟𝗢𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗘
4 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 2 in 1 Year
Sustained Level 2 for 7 Years across 3 Fests
Total Points: 𝟴𝟰𝟲
ALL HAIL HOWARD AND GUY LAWRENCE, THE MONARCHS OF ALL COACHELLA!
4 Appearances
∆ Rise from Level 5 to Level 2 in 1 Year
Sustained Level 2 for 7 Years across 3 Fests
Total Points: 𝟴𝟰𝟲
ALL HAIL HOWARD AND GUY LAWRENCE, THE MONARCHS OF ALL COACHELLA!
I'll admit: I'm surprised! But the numbers check out! They've played an absurd number of shows - no group in the last 6 years has played three Coachellas and been in the Level 2 Subheadliner space for all three...
... except Zedd, who had a longer ∆ Rise.
... except Zedd, who had a longer ∆ Rise.
Since I roped Thom and Radiohead together, I went ahead and ran the numbers for Tool's Maynard James Keenan.
5 Appearances
As Tool:
Sustained Level 1 for 6 Years
As A Perfect Circle:
∆ Rise from Level 4 to Level 2 over 18 YEARS
No points for Puscifer.
Total Points: 𝟭𝟰𝟰
5 Appearances
As Tool:
Sustained Level 1 for 6 Years
As A Perfect Circle:
∆ Rise from Level 4 to Level 2 over 18 YEARS
No points for Puscifer.
Total Points: 𝟭𝟰𝟰
That said, 18 Years is the longest uninterrupted ∆ Rise in Coachella history. Pretty astonishing, that.
ANYWAY! THAT'S THE WHOLE THREAD!
I have all this data and no idea what to do with it now.
So if you have any questions about the history of Coachella's line-up, how things have trended, or who has made big impacts by the numbers...
... now's the time!
I have all this data and no idea what to do with it now.
So if you have any questions about the history of Coachella's line-up, how things have trended, or who has made big impacts by the numbers...
... now's the time!
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