Thread by @chrisvanderveen

MONDAY #COVID19Colorado update

Headline: If you're a glass half-full kind of person, it's not all bad news. Sure, patient count is up... again... but cases, while going up, still aren't spiking

HOSPITALIZATIONS
covid+ ONLY

Today: 353 (up 26)
Last week: 291

#9News

CASES

Consistent increase over last 2 weeks.
BUT
Better than an arrow straight up

POSITIVITY

Actually nudged down... VERY SMALL amount tho

(but better than steep increase)

Want to walk you through how I tend to look at these with a "non-epi expert" eye...

(I'm sure there's a scientific term for this)

Look at the rate of increase over previous spikes (I've labeled a, b and c)

Look how rate of increase falls with each wave. This is a good sign

Now look at, for example, Louisiana

The rate of increase is VERY VERTICAL

(this is not great news)

What about our hospitalizations?

Again, in Colorado, each passing wave is getting less intense. That's good

Not so in Louisiana

BIG and SHARP vertical rise in hospitalizations too

(thanks @nytimes)

Basically, with every passing wave, Colorado is getting better at this

But that's not always the case in the US

Basically, I'd rather be Colo. right now

What's it all mean?

Watch the rate of increase too... Particularly with hospitalizations.

Slower rate of increase and lower peaks are good news.

I'll leave it up to the experts as to why this is happening.

As always

take care of yourselves.

and have a good rest of your week!