Thread by @karamballes

🧵Long Covid in Children, the UKs impact on the global debate on schools and covid.

Today we see a perfect example

The Zoe study comes out and hits headlines, many outlets are stating this is proof we don't need to worry about long covid in children

2/ Its interesting to see studies and statements make it into the headlines and which don't.
When ONS data said the long covid rate was around 8-12% depending on age, that didn't recieve the same level of attention and those who reported it cast doubt on the numbers.

3/ Some UK studies and stats gain a lot more attention than others, some are treated as fact others are presented with doubt.

Most international research on schools and children seems to be wilfully ignored

Remember hearing about a 2 day science summit on long covid?

4/Well there was one, the level of research and detail presented at the conference was of the highest quality, evidence was carefully studied, limitations of different research were pointed out.

This doesn't happen with the headline studies in the UK

https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/1415331220041474050?s=19

5/ Seriously take a look, it's amazing how much the scientific community is learning after such a relatively short period to study this virus, but a lot is still unknown, particularly around Delta.

https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/1415318204902170629?s=19

6/ Study was before Delta, however there are other issues for instance how long covid was defined and identified in the study.

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1422800835562647554?s=19

7/ This comes off the back of reports last week that a trial into daily contact testing showed transmission didn't occur in schools and that contacts who would have gone on to isolate didn't end up testing positive.

This was a reheat of headlines covering the DCT the week before

8/ The DCT were riddled with issues, participation was patchy, there were gaps in the data, the study itself concluded that it only referred to low transmission and this was during delta

Details on the DCT study here⬇️

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1418500683012218880?s=19

9/ Another study with multiple issues heralded as a "major study" the usual characters coming out to say how brilliant it is while not addressing the flaws.

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1418664040524619782?s=19

Bloody typo
This WASNT during delta

10/ What then happens and is probably happening right now is

Ppl come out to criticise the report
Certain group defending the report then accuses the critics of criticising them

The debate degenerates, public get confused and flaws in the study go unaddressed by its defenders

11/ This is exactly what happened last month when child vax was debated, long covid was questioned and there was a lot of talk about unknown long term risks of vaccines

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1417865527578578945?s=19

12/ When one of the takeaway arguments for defending the Gov/JCVI decision by some.of their advisors and researchers is that infection is better than vaccination for young ppl, you have to wonder what impact that has on hesitancy

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1419283292247953411?s=19

13/ We ended up in a position where anti vax groups are platformed and have their messaging repeated by others across media.

The kind of ppl who celebrate younger ppl refusing the vaccine

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1420040653434675206?s=19

14/ As JVT announces vaccination for 16-17 it will be interesting to see how those who defended the original decision respond, has the evidence changed that much in a few weeks?

Notice Green Book was mentioned, this is what it currently says about infections in children

15/ As predicted, criticisms of the report are being responded to with criticism of others like tgise done by the ONS which has come to a different decision.

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1422987793144426497?s=19

16/ Listening to LBC and Nawaz is quoting Ladhani's recent piece in the Times "Parents do not need to worry, children will not be taking the infection home and won't infect family members"

17/ As I said its interesting which studies get the headlines
In winter pre delta, ONS found children were most likely to be the index case, this study was dismissed outright by usual characters and is never mentioned by the media

https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1345661877884481537?s=19

18/ Ladhani has been quite prolific in claiming long covid isn't an issue for children, Deepti's challenges have become a regular part of my TL

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1417804434483163137?s=19

19/ The usual characters dismiss any evidence that we should be worried about transmission, while anything which suggests don't worry is sold as brilliant major studies, they appear increasingly reliant on their own studies

These get the headlines.

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1413630489316020231?s=19

20/ Criticising these studies results in having to face a lot of crap.

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1413419665678913538?s=19

21/ But the bias of reporting has been constant throughout the pandemic.

Transmission data during lockdown shows classes of 30 will be safe
ONS data showing education staff were at increased risk presented ad though there was no risk

So many examples

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1346362200907255808?s=19

22/ I was in a meeting yesterday with representatives of mainly academic organisations from around the world
UK data collection, particularly ONS combined with NHS/PHE is considered world class, the same data the usual characters are so quick to dismiss in favour of their own...

23/ is really highly respected.

There was another study released in England that found that Delta risk to unvaccinated children shouldn't be ignored, how many headlines do you think this one will get in the UK?

https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1422780469406441475?s=19

24/ The UK political narrative is having an impact around the world.
Denmark are considering schools returning without basic measures, in Alberta and BC in Canada the same is occuring as are certain US states.

25/ And which studies are the "let's open up and live with high transmission" politicians and advisors quoting? The ones being produced here in the UK mainly coming out of the same group, a handful of studies are doing a lot of heavy lifting around the world.

26/ Yet outside the "just live with it now" areas, those taking a more cautious approach (which is the majority) are putting more trust in other things like ONS data coming out of UK

27/ Of course passions run high in a pandemic when the stakes are high, can think of times when I could have chosen better worlds, there will be genuine differences of opinion on things like ZC for instance.

Although "progressives" in PH sounds a bit odd to me

28/ Theres clearly a dislike of Independent SAGE, although I think political lobbying group is a bit of a stretch of a description The Citizens provide a platform for iSAGE, they don't get involved in interpreting data or writing reports

29/ I mean a real dislike of iSAGE, minimal transparency and accountability? Public broadcasts and q&a, iSAGE is very open, its not like they are having secret meetings with MPs behind closed doors, if they are annoyed by iSAGE they must be furious about UfT's activities

30/ After tone policing Deepti, likening her to anti vaxers for fear mongering, saying we need to look into iSAGE for what they see as campaigning, they surely wouldn't approve of a group proven to be coordinating in a network of disinformation groups...

31/ Even if they supported such a group they might not be aware of the organising between groups, they wouldn't be chatting with those groups and passing one of UfTs main coordinators any research that might fit the lobbyists narratives

32/ Because getting uptight and accusing a group that operates in the open of having an agenda while talking to groups with some very questionable links, views and tactics coordinating behind closed doors might make it look like attacks on others have an agenda of their own.

33/ I thought this was over after Johnsons "vectors of transmission" but then the DfE turned to ppl from the same group to justify its policies , they release more studies and somehow we are back to April 2020 narrative

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1352645572574982144?s=19

34/ Without our paediatricians the Gov wouldn't have most of the evidence it needs to justify its policies, after all SAGE have been warning about the impact of schools on transmission and need for mitigations for a year+ now

Might have mitigations without these headline studies

35/ Isn't the whole reason we had to "go now" was because of the sweet spot of the "firebreak" school holidays?
Are we to believe that barely any of this transmission is occuring in schools?

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm struggling to believe these statements

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1400816314374148101?s=19

36/ Also wondering why we have set up 15 specialist paediatric units dedicated to long covid in children if its rare as is being claimed?

37/ As predicted, day after the Zoe study makes headlines, the ONS releases data saying approaching 40k children currently have long covid.

Notice this study is only getting a tiny fraction of the coverage the Zoe study did

https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1423285942664646660?s=19

38/ Update:
And a few days later.

39/ On Friday a clinically vulnerable boy spoke at @IndependentSage about his concerns and how he'd like the choice to be vaccinated.

The trolls piled on and the boy has had to close his account due to the level of abuse

Some trolls have blue ticks

https://twitter.com/IndependentSage/status/1424305043185012738?s=19

40/ So what do the "protect the vulnerable" crowd actually want?
The same ones who kept claiming they care about young people’s mental health?

To pile onto a teenager for just voicing his concerns? Despicable.

41/ Meanwhile in the US...
CDC increasingly concerned about the impact of Delta on children.

https://twitter.com/CDCgov/status/1423730603669737476?s=19

42/ This is as paediatric hospitalisations hit record numbers in the states

https://twitter.com/JuliaRaifman/status/1424077820838436870?s=19

43/ Indonesia is facing disaster due to Delta, their children aren't being spared.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1423715105804636165?s=19

44/ CDC also says that reinfection is twice as likely if you haven't been vaccinated, this is going to make building up immunity in young people more difficult than many are making out, even if they ignore long covid

https://twitter.com/weijia/status/1423693302310834177?s=19

45/ BTW if you want to see the kind of crap the boy who spoke at independent SAGE got⬇️

https://twitter.com/PsyberAttack/status/1424307959383920645?s=19

46/ And now we have an attack on independent SAGE

Retweeted by Lucy Johnson i notice , who has promoted UsForThem and T4Recovery.