HUGE new Odd Lots...

@tracyalloway and I had @SBF_FTX and @matt_levine on at the same time to talk about all things crypto market structure.

Was a real treat to just sit back for much of it and listen to both of them get technical bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
And of course, the episode is available at

Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sam…

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/2Oy0ZR…

And anywhere else
BTW. At the 46-minute mark of the episode, we dive into Tether. And a lot of the overall Tether discourse seems to get really repetitive, but I think this part of the discussion was better and more informative/nuanced than anything I've heard yet on it.
FTX, BTW, has a 3x-levered long Tether product that's been an absolute homerun (although flat lately) ftx.com/en/tokens/USDT… $USDTBULL Image

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More from @TheStalwart

6 Aug
BREAKING:

STRONG:

943K new jobs.

Unemployment rate falls to 5.4% (vs. 5.7% expected)

Year over year wage growth comes in at 4%.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Stocks rising pre-market. 10-year also moving higher.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
NASDAQ-100 futures sliding Image
Read 9 tweets
26 Jul
Ok. I have a question for folks like @felixsalmon, @matt_levine, @IvanTheK and others on here who tweet or write sometimes about Payment For Order Flow and other aspects of retail equity market structure...
@felixsalmon @matt_levine @IvanTheK So obviously retail traders are, for the most part, getting totally free trades (through platforms like Robinhood et. al.). But in theory, they could be losing out if stuff like Payment For Order Flow is causing them to get subpar executions.
But how big of an issue could this really be? $VIRT is one of the biggest players in the space, and it's market cap is $4.8 billion. Maybe Citadel Securities would be worth like twice that much if it were public? We're obviously not talking about huge cash cow sums here.
Read 4 tweets
26 Jul
THE BOOK THAT EXPLAINS BITCOIN'S RELIGIOUS SCHISM

I wrote a review of The Blocksize War by @jonathanbier. A fantastic read on the period from 2015-2017, when the Bitcoin world split into two bitterly opposed camps over how best to scale the network bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@jonathanbier Even if you're not really into Bitcoin or anything, you might still find the book to be fascinating, as there's tons in there about how group dynamics form and then harden over time in the presence of conflict. Just the sociology of it is worth studying. amazon.com/dp/B08Z18GWD6/…
I started paying close attention to Bitcoin in around 2016. So there was a lot that I already knew. But also a ton of stuff that was new and surprising to me, including the fact that early on many of the most ardent "small blockers" did actually favor some increase at some point.
Read 5 tweets
5 Jul
New Odd Lots!

We’re back on the real economy beat with the author @RyanHoliday.

He talked with me and @tracyalloway about how he opened up a bookstore in Bastrop, TX in the middle of a pandemic, an epic freeze, and supply chain disruptions galore bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Favorite fact I learned in this one is that the recent Michelle Obama book was so popular that book printers actually ran short on paper to print other books at one point.
We also talked about the economics of getting a book made at and delivered from a specialty printer in Belarus when shipping costs are through the roof.
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
BREAKING:

850K new jobs added in June. That's a beat

However, the unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8%.

LFPR was flat at 61.6%

More TK here:

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Stock futures ticking up modestly after the report.

You could argue that these numbers are kind of goldilocksish. The better than expected pace of job creation is positive, and the higher unemployment rate means a persistent level of labor market slack Image
343K new Leisure & Hospitality jobs per @boes_
Read 7 tweets
28 Jun
NEW ODD LOTS:

Multiple people have said that @tomhschmidt is the best at articulating how DeFi works. So he came on to talk with me and @tracyalloway about all the key concepts you should know about. Nearly 60 minutes of alpha.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Some of the things we talked about

-- What is all this technology ~for~
-- Regulatory considerations
-- What is "Impermanent Loss"
-- Where the yield comes from
-- Complexity and the user experience

Plus a bunch more.
Also! Going to try something new this week. I think on Thursday, we're going to do a Twitter Spaces with @tomhschmidt, to ask followup questions. So you should listen to it now. And then join Thursday to ask all the things you want to know. More details on that TK.
Read 5 tweets

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