Thread by @BigManBakar

Content overview - A thread

Greetings everyone. Provided below is all my work during pre-season which you might find useful in building your GW 1 squad:

Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

#FPL #FPLCommunity

All the numbers and statistics I have used as part of my analysis are taken from @FFH_HQ. If you want access to similar data this season and further members only content from myself, you can feel free to sign up below. There's a 25% discount these days!

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CONTENT ON DEFENCE

xG conceded this calendar year

WBA 44.4
Sheff Utd 41.9
Aston Villa 40.8
Southampton 40.7
Newcastle 37.2
Burnley 36.8

Villa's defensive numbers have been on the decline for a while. Precisely why I don't think Martínez/a Villa defender is worth starting with!

Big chances created: (defenders in 2021)

Trent 11
Cresswell 9
Coufal 8
Digne 6
Shaw 5
Robertson 4

-Coufal £0.5m underpriced
-Robertson off the pace
-Shaw top for chances created but lagging behind in quality
-Trent in a league of his own

Chances created this calendar year:

Shaw 56
Trent 54
Mount 53
Bruno/Son 48
Raphinha 47

Shaw at £5.5m with LEE sou wol NEW to start the season is an absolute no brainer...

Do.Not.Overthink!

An interesting trend I noticed with some of the premium defences (Che/Mci/Liv/Mun) over the past two seasons:

Clean sheets per game in the first 6 GWs = 0.23
Clean sheets per game in the remaining GWs = 0.38

Elite defences have been starting slow in recent times!

Southampton with Ings v without Ings

20/21
xG per game: 1.2 v 0.8
Big chances per game: 1.89 v 1.2

Southampton's failure to sign a striker in the opening weeks could be great news for Digne in GW1 and Shaw in GW2

On 5 of the 11 occasions when Meslier kept a clean sheet last season, he secured maximum bonus. Had it not been for a Dallas goal v Sou, this would have been the case 6 times. His baseline BPS per 90 of 17.9 (v Martinez's 16.6 and Pope's 16.3) makes him an explosive option to own

In the reverse fixtures under Tuchel against Palace, Arsenal, Liverpool, Villa, Spurs and City last season, Chelsea recorded an average xGc of 0.8. Compare that with an average xGc of 0.56 in their other matches under Tuchel and you can see some regression with fixture difficulty

Leeds' defensive improvement in the second half of the season was largely due to their home form. In the second half away from home, Leeds were 20th for shots conceded and 16th for big chances/xG conceded per game. Leeds when playing away is a good fixture to target for attackers

A short thread on my reading of Brighton's defence based on their numbers in 20/21:

Dunk v Veltman (as a CB) v Webster
Shots in the box per 90: 0.8 v 0 v 0.7
Chances created per 90: 0.3 v 0.7 v 0.17
Baseline BPS per 90: 13.9 v 13.2 v 12

*Dunk/Veltman's bonus potential underrated
*Sánchez has a better baseline BPS per 90 than all defenders recording 14.2 baseline BPS per 90
*This suggests that assuming Brighton keep a clean sheet and no defender gets an attacking return, Sánchez is very likely to get bonus points

*Webster is a non-option as others offer more
*The Bri defence were only behind Chelsea/City for xG/big chances conceded last season so really solid bargains

Since Sánchez started playing last season:

*He is 4th among all keepers for clean sheets
*He is 16th among all keepers for saves made
*He is 13th among all keepers for bonus points

Quite evident that he will consistently offer value for money but with a low ceiling!

Rotating a Brighton defender with the likes of Raphinha/Ayling could be a legit option. Over the first 11 fixtures it gives you:

bur WAT bur bre new cry WAT nor WOL nor NEW

Not a single top ten team there!

Under Solskjær, Man United's goalkeepers have registered 5,6 and 8 bonus points in three FPL seasons respectively. In 20/21, a goalkeeper on average in FPL accumulated 9.5 points over the season. Henderson even if first choice is not an auto selection given his limited ceiling!

Robertson v Van Dijk

19/20
Big chance involvements per 90: 0.47 v 0.16
Bonus points per 90: 0.56 v 0.37

18/19
Big chance involvements per 90: 0.4 v 0.2
Bonus points per 90: 0.8 v 0.58

For those looking to buy Van Dijk, it's fair to say that Robertson is worth the £0.5m extra

Andy Robertson:

First Half v Second Half (20/21)

Chances created: 37 v 29
Big chances created: 8 v 3
Touches in final third: 719 v 590

Visible drop in numbers but nor BUR CRY bre are four of the first six fixtures. Tricky decision!

Digne with Sigurdsson v Digne without Sigurdsson

(20/21)

Mins per chance created: 77 v 39.1
Mins per big chance created: 446 v 128.6
Mins per baseline BPS: 7.4 v 5.3

Digne with set pieces is a different animal with more explosive potential. Townsend now could share though!

Arsenal GW 1-15 v GW 16-38

(20/21)

Shots conceded per game: 12 v 10.2
Big chances conceded per game: 1.7 v 1.3
Clean sheets per game: 0.2 v 0.4

If Arsenal carry forward their defensive form that they have shown this calendar year, then Ben White (£4.5m) could be a bargain

Luke Ayling as a right back:

20/21

Starts: 25
Chances created: 20
Big chances created: 4
Assists: 0

I think the FPL community's inflated confidence in Ayling's attacking potential may be slightly misplaced. The underlying data suggests sporadic rather than consistent returns!

West Ham's first 6 fixtures:

new LEI CRY sou MUN lee

Not sure I like fixtures enough to justify investment in Coufal/Cresswell despite their attacking potential. West Ham kept just 1 one clean sheet in the reverse fixtures in 20/21. Too much value in the £4.5 defenders instead!

CONTENT ON ATTACK

Team xG

(since Tuchel took over)

Man City 40.2
Chelsea 38.1
Liverpool 37.8
Man United 34
Leicester 33.1
West Ham 32.2
Leeds 31.5

Chelsea are labelled as being a defence first team under Tuchel but their attacking numbers under him have been highly impressive

Just a reminder that Riyad Mahrez has 4 goals and an assist in his previous 5 UCL starts. 3 goals and 2 assists in 3 friendlies already. Now on penalties, many think that he is currently Pep's first name on the clean sheet. Overlooking him might be a mistake...

Bruno against Che/Mci/Liv/Lei/Ars v Bruno against the rest

20/21 (stats per 90)

Goals 0.4 v 0.6
Chances created 1.7 v 3.2
Assists 0.1 v 0.5
FPL pts 5.4 v 7.8

Bruno isn't playing any of the tougher teams until GW8. In the first 7 reverse fixtures, he averaged 9.8 pts per game!

Bruno GW 1-19 v 20-38

Key passes per 90: 2.7 v 2.3
xG per 90: 0.58 v 0.43
Penalties: 6 v 4
Non pen xG per 90: 0.32 v 0.25

*Slight fall in creativity due to Shaw's share on set pieces
*Pens played a big part in xG decline
*Non pen xG was similar

Still a brilliant asset to own!

DCL v Bamford v Watkins v Antonio v Wilson

Shots in the box per 90: 2.2 v 2.8 v 2.4 v 2.3 v 1.9
Big chances per 90: .97 v .97 v .68 v .86 v .91
xG per 90: .55 v .56 v .45 v .48 v .45

Have never found it tougher to pick between strikers. Pick who you think has the best fixtures!

DCL with v without Richarlison 20/21

Mins per shot in the box 38 v 60
Mins per big chance 87 v 180

DCL scored just once in 4 games without Richarlison, 3 of which were against Sou/New/Shu. Richarlison missing the first few GWs due to Olympics could have a big impact yet again

Brentford are being rated by the bookies as being the second favorites for the lowest scoring PL team this season. Makes me wonder whether Toney's potential is being overhyped on FPL Twitter or is he really the real deal?

Watkins, Wilson, Vardy and Mané were all amongst the most common offenders for offsides last season. All like playing on the shoulder of the last defender. Can see the Premier League's more sympathetic stance towards offsides benefiting these forwards to a certain extent!

FPL goal involvement %

20/21 (players with 1000+ mins)

Wilson 58
Kane 57
Wood 56
Bamford 55
DCL 54
Salah 48
Bruno 47
Son 46

This is an elite list of players who have a big chance of being involved in a goal/assist whenever their team scores. This sets them apart from the rest

Son with and without Kane

20/21

Mins per shot in the box: 69 v 90
Mins per big chance: 125 v 360
Spurs non pen xG per game: 1.4 v 0.4

While Son could benefit from being on penalties, Spurs struggle for creativity in recent times without Kane which has an adverse impact on Son

Son Heung Min

20/21
GW 1-19 v GW 20-38
Shots in the box per 90: 1.47 v 1.07
Big chances per 90: 1.06 v 0.28

Fair to say Son has not been the same asset this year. Under a new manager and at £10m, I'm willing to wait to see an improvement in his goal threat before I invest!

What I like about budget forwards this year is that given the number of options available, picking them is a low risk strategy. Toney to Pukki in GW5, DCL to Bamford in GW7 and Watkins to Jiménez in GW4 are all viable contingency plans. And I haven't mentioned Antonio/Wilson yet!

Raphinha v Harrison

This calendar year

Shots in the box per 90: 1.4 v 1.1
Chances created per 90: 2.6 v 1.4
Big chance involvements per 90: 0.83 v 0.5
BPS per 90: 19.6 v 18.1

Raphinha worth the £0.5m premium in my opinion

Is it really worth doubling up on Buendia and Watkins for wat NEW BRE (GW 1-3) when it effectively means you're booking a couple of transfers ahead of che EVE mun tot WOL ars (GW 4-9)?

Smith Rowe as a #10

20/21

Starts: 12
Shots in the box: 7
Big chances: 3
Chances created: 14
Big chances created: 1

Underlying numbers fairly reflective of Smith Rowe's price. Personally a wait and see for me till GW4 at least.

Since Tuchel took over, no midfielder in the league recorded more big chances per start or a better xG per start than Kai Havertz in 20/21. He largely flew under the radar last season as during that spell he started just 8 times in 19 GWs but his numbers were rather exceptional.

Big chances

GW 25-38: (since Grealish's injury for forwards only)

Kane 15
Iheanacho 13
Wood 12
Bamford/DCL 11
Antonio 10
...
Watkins 5

This despite Villa having good fixtures. Makes him a significantly worse option if Grealish leaves!

A big thank you to my friend @fplwaleed who has been helping me with my research this season. Make sure to follow him to show your support!

Kindly like and retweet the thread if you can! Do share your feedback as always, and follow me on my Instagram ahead of the new season to stay plugged in for more FPL updates! 👇

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