[THREAD] #Balochistan: The BLA released 2 long videos on their attack in Marwaar, #Bolan, on May 31st 2021. This was against a large Pakistani Frontier Corps post and involved an attack team of around 30+ insurgents. Although the attack was typical, it was larger than usual.
1/
BLA fighters went through detailed planning including using a model to plan movements, point out guard towers, local terrain, etc. Seems that the planning took place fairly far away from FC post, with the fighters then travelling. Note AKs, Zastava M84, PG-7V, PSL, SVD, etc.
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We're given GPS co-ords (29.96225530387559, 67.4549640088277 (I think)) so if anyone has any nice sat pics pre and prior to the raid I'd be interested. Note they're aware of the proximity to air assets, and hence possible length of time for support to arrive (it doesn't)
3/
The attack starts in a fairly conventional manner, with aimed fire from PSL/SVD DMR, scoped M16A4, etc. The goal here seems to take defenders out in the open by surprise. BLA fighter(s) then open fire with machine guns, including the M249 seen here.
4/
Throughout the next ~25 minutes of footage, the BLA fighters move closer to the walls of the large outpost, usually utilising AKM/Type 56 rifles at effective ranges. The outpost itself is hit with RPG fire- most likely OG-7V/OGi-7MA & PG-7V/T69-1 projectiles.
5/
Continues for a long while as fighters get close enough to engage in close combat with the FC inside the base, who are performing better than previous occasions. Large quantities of RPGs are still used, and grenades. At least 1 BLA fighter is killed in CQB over the walls.
6/
FC men, realising the situation is becoming difficult, w/ at least 15 BLA fighters on different sides of the base, mostly withdraw to better protected guard posts and buildings inside. BLA fighters begin to get inside the base & use OG-7V/nades at dangerously close ranges.
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At least one BLA marksmen using the popular M16A4 moves up to the walls of the base and begins firing at FC inside. BLA fighters continue with CQ throughout the base, engaging in quite intense fighting amongst the small structures. More BLA die.
8/
As the tide fully turns in favour of the insurgents, fighting continues and they move throughout the whole base, then strip it of weapons and materiel, as already recorded below 👇
They then burn the whole base, and capture at least one FC member, who appears to be wounded. This whole fight appears to have taken hours and it's surprising that Pakistani Air support (or even ground) didn't arrive, which could have foiled the attack to a degree.
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Afterwards, the insurgents show off a captured man (Which is a little uncommon locally). Note shorted AK and AKM with UBGL, plus PSL DMR. Oh, and BLA fighter with a captured G3A3. Note comms in hand.
11/
Some conclusions, atho am *not* a tactics person. It's apparant that the BLA whilst lacking some basic training are also adept at effectively targeting FC posts, w/ this attack being one of the larger seen for quite a while. They bring the kit (MG, RPG) they need & no more.
12/
A little more defenses and some additional support for the FC post could have probably have averted this situation, in which a claimed 25 militiamen died. The weapons mix we see is quite typical for the area, with BLA marksmen again a key element.
One aspect that many miss RE:AA FPV UAV is that these are a reaction to a lack of MANPADS, particularly those not from the Cold War.
Sure FPV can work, but if every AFU unit had plenty of LMM or Starstreak, esp. w/ extended range, the need would be met much more efficiently.
The innovation shown in 🇺🇦 is excellent, lessons learned should be diffused into other allied militaries, but we shouldn't fetishize systems that have developed because of specific local conditions. Some of the situation now is because the AFU has not been efficiently resourced.
Ofc, as the drones develop, they will become more and more like MANPADS. The cost will rise, especially as features such as passive radar/ELINT targeting become more common than they already are.
I am not bashing what Ukrainians are doing, I'm just pointing out the reality.
According to some local reports & the ISIS claim, the attackers withdrew successfully. They will have communicated with IS-K/Central, poss. including videos/images of them carrying out the massacre.
They are still at large. This is exactly what security forces don't want.
Usually they don't manage. But if your security forces don't arrive for an hour, this can happen. So they can sleep, rearm, and do it again. Inghimasi don't expect to survive, so for them this is a bonus.
When they kill these guys, they will find a phone with either SMS, WhatsApp, Telegram or maybe Viber msgs to an account with a central asian or Afghan number. That account will have been assisting, directing & encouraging them live. Non-0 chance US SIGINT can see said messages.
Your reminder btw, because I know people will be doing it, deaths of civilians is never, ever to be celebrated. I hope the vermin who carried this out are slotted with all rapidity
From the video: At least 5 men with AKs, probably 74s. Can't see PBIED, although given IS-K to be expected. This is worse case, nightmare scenario stuff that Western forced worry about and train for constantly.
No, not doing any ID, it's not healthy for the mind and soul
Random thoughts on the al Qassam footage from the IDF ground incursion in no particular order.
Firstly- Clear that the en mass production of the "Yassin" PG-7VR copy was a very sensible decision. This was the most achievable way for them for them to create a potent anti....
armour weapon, with good penetrative capabilities against IDF armour. Even more sensible was the adoption of the main warhead of the Yassin (Essentially the same as a PG-7L) as a static charge IED. That way, the same production line(s) could be efficiently used to boost..
..al Qassam et al anti-armour capabilities in a simple to use package. So far, this seems to have been effective, although the daring IED-placing rambo probably wasted his actions, as the directional charge wouldn't have gone in the right...direction.
This is not *why* I am leaving all of this, but rather just some notes to whoever might find them useful.
Why does someone do the stuff I have? Why does someone write thousands of words and spend so many hours?
It's because yes, you enjoy it, but it makes you feel like you are making a positive difference. But then it starts feeling like a job, a job that gives you no earnings.
Then you find that dozens, if not hundreds, of organisations, companies, large (evidently revenue earning) accounts, YouTubers etc, are very, very happy to use your expertise and your time, and *will not* compensate you for it. Sometimes you get credit, which is nice.
Something I didn't say in November that I think now- this stuff has a deeply personal tinge. The Ukrainians are targeting people because they see them as guilty of assisting in their (attempted) genocide. This is Mossad in the 60s, and they are only just starting.
Sensible people in European security circles should be thinking about how to manage and mitigate a service absolutely willing to go kinetic on their soil in five or ten years when some of the Russian men who were Bucha or Mariupol manage to get to Germany etc
So much analysis of this misses the personal factor.
Why wouldn't you target the people who wanted to turn you into a literal footnote of history?