Thread by @FPL_Architect

GW 1 Thread:

- Fixture to target
- Player recommendation
- Player to avoid
- New signings
- Last season’s bargains
- Worth consideration
- Clean sheet probabilities
- Captaincy
- Value picks
- Differentials

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GW 1 Fixture to target:

Liverpool go up against Norwich in GW 1, which is a very clear fixture to target. This should end with a big win for Liverpool which makes Salah, Mané, Trent and possibly even Tsimikas being great FPL picks.

GW 1 Player recommendation:

Riyad Mahrez is always a superb FPL option when he plays, the issue is of course Pep’s tendency to rotate the winger. However, with multiple injuries in the squad and players that haven’t got a full pre season, Mahrez could see a lot more...

... game time than usual in the first weeks of the season.

The GW 2 fixture vs Norwich stands out, and that alone is enough to make me want Mahrez in my team. Despite the risk, this is a good time to play Pep Roulette.

GW 1 Player to avoid:

Jack Grealish wasn’t ready to start in the Community Shield game against Leicester this weekend, and it’s possible that he’s benched again in GW 1. KDB and Foden are injured, but City still have other alternatives.

Grealish could prove to be a great FPL option in the future, but in my opinion it’s a bit too risky to start the season with him in your team.

New Signings:

Jadon Sancho (9.5) - Man Utd 🔴

Sancho won’t be ready to start GW 1 so this is definitely one to avoid. He will be a great option when he’s ready though, especially when United have their fantastic run of fixtures from GW 15-27 👇

Romelu Lukaku (?) - Chelsea 🔵

When the deal is official we will get Lukaku’s FPL price, but regardless what he’s priced, he will be an excellent FPL option. Maybe not from GW 1, but definitely when Chelsea’s fixtures turn in GW 7 👇

Danny Ings (8.0) - Aston Villa 🟣

The former Southampton striker is lethal in front of goal and with Buendia, Bailey and Watkins around him Ings will undoubtedly get a lot of chances. If he can avoid injuries, Ings is one of the best striker options in FPL.

Last season’s bargains:

Emiliano Martinez (5.5) - Aston Villa 🟣

Martinez scored incredibly 186 points last season, and was given a price rise to 5.5m. However, Villa didn’t end last season with a great defensive form at all, so I seriously doubt investing 5.5 million...

... in Martinez this year. He will probably outscore the 4.5 GKs, but they will prove to be better value.

Stuart Dallas (5.5) - Leeds ⚪️

The 4.5 defender from last season is now a 5.5 midfielder, and with that position change his FPL appeal disappears for me. For only 0.5-1.0 more you can get more attacking options from the same team in Harrison/Raphinha, which will be worth it.

GW 1 Worth consideration:

Bruno or BruNO?

To own or to not own Bruno has been a big talking point in the community, and strong arguments could be made for both sides. Personally, I will have Bruno in my GW 1 team. Here’s why 👇

- He is a great captaincy option, mainly in GW 3 (wol) and 4 (NEW) and I will likely captain him those GWs.

- He provides an easy route to Kane/Lukaku, players that are hard to bring in without taking hits if you only have 1 premium and instead spread your funds.

GW 1 Top 5 Clean sheet probabilities:

CHE - 60%
LEI - 48%
LIV - 45%
BHA - 40%
MUN - 38%

[@drafthound]

GW 1 Captaincy

1) Mohamed Salah - 💰12.5
Fixture: NOR (A)

Mo Salah against a promoted team in GW 1 is a match made in heaven. Captain him and you give yourself a great chance of multiple returns, and if it somehow fails then most FPL managers are in the same situation.

2) Bruno Fernandes - 💰12.0
Fixture: LEE (H)

If you’re not captaining Salah, Bruno is a good alternative. Man Utd’s talisman is involved in everything offensively and he was the top scorer in FPL last season with a massive number of 32 goal involvements.

3) Trent Alexander-Arnold - 💰7.5
Fixture: NOR (A)

Liverpool have a 45% CS probability in GW 1 and combined with Trent’s always high attacking threat (He averaged 0.24 xA/90 last season), the fullback is a good, more differential, captaincy option.

GW 1 Captaincy - Differential

Michail Antonio - 💰7.5
Fixture: NEW (A)

Antonio had the highest non penalty xG/90 of all players in the 20/21 season, 0.52. When he’s fit he’s always a great option and facing Newcastle in GW 1 he is an interesting differential captain.

Value picks:

🧤Sanchez - 4.5 (BHA)
🧤Bachmann - 4.5 (WAT)
🛡White - 4.5 (ARS)
🛡Veltman - 4.5 (BHA)
🛡Tsimikas - 4.0 (LIV)
🛡Amartey - 4.0 (LEI)
🎯Smith-Rowe - 5.5 (ARS)
🎯Brownhill - 4.5 (BUR)
⚽️Toney - 6.5 (BRE)
⚽️Pukki - 6.0 (NOR)

GW 1 Differential picks:

1️⃣ Saïd Benrahma - 💰6.0
Owned by: 2.9%
Fixture: NEW (A)

2️⃣ Sadio Mané - 💰12.0
Owned by: 4.1%
Fixture: NOR (A)

3️⃣ Mason Greenwood - 💰7.5
Owned by: 4.4%
Fixture: LEE (H)

GW 1 Captaincy Thread:

In a few days I will post this season’s first captaincy thread, featuring picks from the panel. Stay tuned!

Thanks for reading this thread, please share it if you found it interesting!

This was the first of 38 parts, I will keep writing a GW Thread every week this season. If you liked the format, drop a follow for more threads like this 🙌

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