If you, like me, are tired of shallow and short-term reporting on China, and need to zoom out, I'd like to tell you a story. It's about an ancient, hidden force influencing its policies today, from Xinjiang to the Pacific, from Tibet to Beijing.
This is the map of China's ethnicities. The main ones are:
Han in the east (brown)
Mongolian in the north (dark pink)
Turkic in the west (light pink)
Tibetan in the south-west (orange)
Thai in the south (yellow)
But most of the people are in the east! In the Han area.
This is so stark that the line that divides the lightly and densely populated areas has a name: it's the Hu line
The area east of the Hu Line represents 43% of the land but hosts 94% of the population.
And the Han represent more than 95% of the population in those populated areas. That's why, overall, the Han account for 94% of the Chinese population!
But why is the area in the east so populated compared to the rest?
Because it's the flattest area, which means it's easy to farm and trade.
It's also the area that has the most rain. The white line here is the line that receives 15 inches of water a year. It divides the west, super dry, and the east, which receives much more than 15 inches
Of all the east, the most fertile area is that flat land to the northeast. It's called the North China Plain, and it receives not one but two rivers born in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau.
Unsurprisingly, it's the most fertile area in China.
This is where the Han come from.
More flatlands, rain, and rivers means more people and trade, which means they can conquer the rest of the areas around it over 3000 years.
But why does the rain fall where it falls?
Because winds at that latitude blow from the east, so they take with them all the water from the Pacific. The mountains stop the clouds, sucks all the water, and east of it there's a rain shadow effect and no rain.
So the mountains in the west and the latitude cause the rivers and the rain. But why are there mountains in the west in the first place? Because the Indian plate hits the Eurasian plate
The hit creates the Himalayas closest to India and the Tibetan plateau behind it.
Ok so now we understand why the mountains, but why do they stop so suddenly and the east is so flat?
Because of the Pacific plate! It's going below the Eurasian plate and all the area it has reached is flat on the surface!
How far in does the Pacific plate go? All the way to the... Hu Line!
(This limit is called the North-South Gravity Lineament, and separates from the Hu Line in the south).
So the Indian, Eurasian, and Pacific plate create China's mountains in the west & flatlands in the east
The latitude brings winds, which bring water
The relationship of both create rivers, rain, and flatlands
Those create fertile lands
The most fertile of which was the Han's
That's why the Hans were the most powerful, and why they spread.
So a better way to understand China is as the geologically-blessed Han country, defending itself by building non-Han buffers around it. For Beijing, China is the brown area, and the other colors are its defenses.
How did this drive China's history? Their current policies? Their future?
Never bet against the US:
Ppl think its biggest strength is its institutions, the dollar, entrepreneurship... But one of its biggest assets is its geography 🧵
1. Size
The US is the 4th largest country. It spans an entire continent, reaches two oceans, and is big enough to be a geographic heavyweight in the world
2. The Mississippi Basin
It's the 4th largest drainage basin in the world and occupies 40% of the contiguous 48 US states, touching 32 of the US’s 50 states. 11 US states directly take their name from it.
Climate caused the US Civil War, because: 1. Slavery was the main cause of the war 2. Different crops were the main cause of slavery 3. Climate caused different crops in the North vs South
This is terribly important to understand the US today and how to heal it
🧵
1. Slavery was the main cause of the war: the Abolitionist North & the Slavery South were competing to expand westward to increase their political influence
But the North grew & expanded faster, to a point where it could force abolition on the South, which then seceded
In 1790, the Free & Slave states had the same population, and there were many more Slave States (8 vs 5), so Slave States controlled the Senate.
By the eve of the war in 1860, the North had 50% more population and 4 more states, giving them control of both the House & Senate
Moscow is one of the weirdest capitals:
• Biggest European city
• Extremely cold
• Little farmland
• To Russia's extreme west
• Not on a coast or main river
How did it create the biggest country on Earth?
It involves horse archers, human harvesting & tiny animals 🧵
The first shocking fact is that Russia is so far north it's at the edge of arable land. How can you create a capital with so little food? Why not in the middle of the most fertile area on Earth?
This far north is extremely cold
Moscow is the 3rd coldest capital in the world and by far the biggest: with 20M ppl, its metro population is 8x bigger than the 2nd biggest cold capital, Stockholm!
This map tells you how a seemingly innocent difference, like wheat vs rice eating, can have dramatic political, economic, and cultural ramifications:
🧵
The areas that harvest wheat vs rice are different. Why?
Because of climate
Rice needs heat and lots of water. Ideally, flooding the fields to also kill weeds. Rice dies with frost.
Wheat resists it well, prefers cooler temperatures, but dies when it's flooded
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."
Why did 🇮🇱Israel strike 🇮🇷Iran now, and not months or years ago or in the future?
A unique combination of a dozen factors converged to make the moment unique for 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵 1. No Hamas to its southwest 2. No Hezbollah to its north 3. No Assad threat to the northeast
4...
4. No more Syrian army to attack 🇮🇱Israel's planes: As the new forces of HTS took over Syria, Israel bombed all the existing Syrian military. No more fighter jets or surface-to-air missiles to threaten 🇮🇱Israel
5. Ability to fly over Syria to refuel
This is critical, because 🇮🇷Iran is ~600-1000 miles away from 🇮🇱Israel, so 1200-2000 miles round trip
The range of Israel’s stealth F35 is only about 1,350 mi
To operate inside 🇮🇷Iran, 🇮🇱Israel needed refueling over Syria