If you, like me, are tired of shallow and short-term reporting on China, and need to zoom out, I'd like to tell you a story. It's about an ancient, hidden force influencing its policies today, from Xinjiang to the Pacific, from Tibet to Beijing.
This is the map of China's ethnicities. The main ones are:
Han in the east (brown)
Mongolian in the north (dark pink)
Turkic in the west (light pink)
Tibetan in the south-west (orange)
Thai in the south (yellow)
But most of the people are in the east! In the Han area.
This is so stark that the line that divides the lightly and densely populated areas has a name: it's the Hu line
The area east of the Hu Line represents 43% of the land but hosts 94% of the population.
And the Han represent more than 95% of the population in those populated areas. That's why, overall, the Han account for 94% of the Chinese population!
But why is the area in the east so populated compared to the rest?
Because it's the flattest area, which means it's easy to farm and trade.
It's also the area that has the most rain. The white line here is the line that receives 15 inches of water a year. It divides the west, super dry, and the east, which receives much more than 15 inches
Of all the east, the most fertile area is that flat land to the northeast. It's called the North China Plain, and it receives not one but two rivers born in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau.
Unsurprisingly, it's the most fertile area in China.
This is where the Han come from.
More flatlands, rain, and rivers means more people and trade, which means they can conquer the rest of the areas around it over 3000 years.
But why does the rain fall where it falls?
Because winds at that latitude blow from the east, so they take with them all the water from the Pacific. The mountains stop the clouds, sucks all the water, and east of it there's a rain shadow effect and no rain.
So the mountains in the west and the latitude cause the rivers and the rain. But why are there mountains in the west in the first place? Because the Indian plate hits the Eurasian plate
The hit creates the Himalayas closest to India and the Tibetan plateau behind it.
Ok so now we understand why the mountains, but why do they stop so suddenly and the east is so flat?
Because of the Pacific plate! It's going below the Eurasian plate and all the area it has reached is flat on the surface!
How far in does the Pacific plate go? All the way to the... Hu Line!
(This limit is called the North-South Gravity Lineament, and separates from the Hu Line in the south).
So the Indian, Eurasian, and Pacific plate create China's mountains in the west & flatlands in the east
The latitude brings winds, which bring water
The relationship of both create rivers, rain, and flatlands
Those create fertile lands
The most fertile of which was the Han's
That's why the Hans were the most powerful, and why they spread.
So a better way to understand China is as the geologically-blessed Han country, defending itself by building non-Han buffers around it. For Beijing, China is the brown area, and the other colors are its defenses.
How did this drive China's history? Their current policies? Their future?
Why did 🇮🇱Israel strike 🇮🇷Iran now, and not months or years ago or in the future?
A unique combination of a dozen factors converged to make the moment unique for 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵 1. No Hamas to its southwest 2. No Hezbollah to its north 3. No Assad threat to the northeast
4...
4. No more Syrian army to attack 🇮🇱Israel's planes: As the new forces of HTS took over Syria, Israel bombed all the existing Syrian military. No more fighter jets or surface-to-air missiles to threaten 🇮🇱Israel
5. Ability to fly over Syria to refuel
This is critical, because 🇮🇷Iran is ~600-1000 miles away from 🇮🇱Israel, so 1200-2000 miles round trip
The range of Israel’s stealth F35 is only about 1,350 mi
To operate inside 🇮🇷Iran, 🇮🇱Israel needed refueling over Syria
1. From Feb 2025 to Jun 2025, it increased its amount of enriched uranium by 50% 2. It now had 400kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for 9-10 bombs 3. This is 60% enriched uranium. Fuel only requires 5% enrichment.
4... 🧵
4. It's easy to go from 60% to 90% (weapons grade), it only takes weeks 5. The only country on Earth with such enriched uranium and without a bomb is 🇮🇷Iran 6. The IAEA (nuclear watchdog) found 3 secret nuclear sites
7. When 🇮🇷Iran didn't respond to this accusation, the IAEA censured it 8. 🇮🇷Iran responded to the censoring by saying it would open a 3rd enrichment site in a secret spot
Now that the 🇺🇸US has bombed 3 of 🇮🇷Iran's nuclear sites, where will the war go from here?
It depends on 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵
🇮🇷Iran never wanted the war, and its forces are being decimated. Its ability to send missiles to 🇮🇱Israel is being degraded every day. If it could sign a ceasefire while saving face, it would
Meanwhile, 🇮🇱Israel has kept striking Iran non stop. Its daily airstrikes didn't go down substantially in the first few days. Its ability to keep striking 🇮🇷Iran remains unabated
Can there be an invasion of Iran? Hardly. Two maps explain why, and also why Iran is the way it is today, whether its regime will fall, what other superpowers will do, and in general why Iran is the way it is today
The only truly exposed area is the southwestern corner of Khuzestan, which is a swamp
The biggest superpowers lie to the west, and there the very broad Zagros make it really hard to conquer Iran. The mountain range is tall and wide, making logistics similar to Afghanistan. Very hard.
Iraq learned it the hard way when it tried to attack there in 1980
Listening to the debate, it looks like 🇮🇱Israel & the 🇺🇸US intelligence community disagreed, but that's not really the case!
Both thought Iran was weeks to months away from being able to develop the bomb
So what's the disagreement?
Here are more facts:
• Tehran had just announced a 3rd enrichment site in an undisclosed place
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had recently produced a report censoring Iran for the 1st time in 20y
• It accused Iran of 3 undisclosed nuclear sites
• It claimed Iran had enough enriched uranium for 9-10 nuclear bombs
• All the other countries in the world who have enriched uranium at the same level also have nuclear weapons. Iran is the only country that doesn't have these weapons yet enriches uranium as much
Nuclear is the best source of energy across nearly all the factors that matter. It's the safest, cleanest, densest, most sustainable, geopolitically stable, predictable, dispatchable, and can be cheap.
1. SAFEST
It kills 1000x less than coal
Living close to a nuclear power plant for one year gives you less radiation than eating a banana (graph is logarithmic)
2. CLEANEST
Accounting for all the lifecycle of all energies, it's the one that emits the least CO2