Thread by @ASXSharpShooter

A 5 or 10 bagger with ~90%+ chance of success, but a zero in failure? Statistically good odds. Sounds too good to be true.

Complicated but hear me out…

Prairie Mining ($PDZ), listed on ASX, LSE & WSE. Was trying to develop coking coal assets in Poland

cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway…

change of government in 2015 and from there it became impossible to get approvals to progress development

cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway…

basically ripped away the value of the company. Company has little cash and cant seek recompense on their own, in step litigation funder Litigation Capital Management (#LIT – listed on LSE).

cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway…

matters of litigation get messy and I understand very little about legal matters, but thankfully Litigation Capital Management do.

lcmfinance.com

Since founded in 1998, #LIT have only suffered a loss on 11 occasions (see 3 minutes into video). Of the 11 lost, only ~6 were adjudicated against them

so it is very rare that #LIT form the wrong judgment call and that is the expertise I am relying upon. Why so successful, see 16 minutes into video

So what is the value proposition? $PDZ have filed their claim for £806M or $1.5B AUD (yes that is $Billion). Market Cap is just ~$60M here…

cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway…

Ok, if you have got this far, I have your attention. But don’t for a minute assume that $PDZ will get the $1.5B, although if it goes to a contested hearing, it could be something close to that.

Most cases will settle prior to getting to that stage. I have asked the question of #LIT previously and although definitely not a rule, something in the order of 1/3 of gross claim size would be typical. But each case is different

But if for instance a settlement was done at ~30% of claim size, your looking at ~$450M AUD, take out a fee for the litigation funder + a 6% fee for the board (great deal for them), you are still looking at a potential 5 bagger

If it goes to a contested hearing, the return multiple potentially gets stupidly high. But there are a couple of obvious questions most would want answered here.

How enforceable is this international law? An award issued by an ICSID tribunal is enforceable in any one of the 154 member states is enforceable as if it were a judgment of one of their own courts.

How do you get money out of a sovereign who decides not to pay? Thanks to @FinanceFunky for this interview, see 48 minutes in:

@FinanceFunky Can the legal case be drawn out indefinitely, appealed and the like? No, once a judgement is made, it is final and can’t be appealed.

Who is on the adjudication tribunal? 3 panel members, one appointed by $PDZ, one by Poland and one independent. Only 2 of the 3 are needed to make the award.

jusmundi.com/en/document/de…

and the catch, if they lose the case, well that is it for the company. So it’s a bet on the litigation funders track record and the DD that they have conducted.

Yes I have positions in both #LIT (long since May 2017) & $PDZ (long since June 2021)

@TheMoneySponge i see you previously invested in $PDZ, perhaps don't give up just yet....

#Accumulation