Thread by @stephendziedzic

This is beginning now. Fairly grim opening. The FM says "we are probably experiencing the most massive, brutal and opportunistic military campaign of violence and terror, by the Taliban, in the history of our country" 1/

https://twitter.com/stephendziedzic/status/1425339329769967618

Even more grim. The FM says the country is grappling with compounding crises. Struggling not just with the Taliban assaults but also a terrible drought and the COVID-19 pandemic. He estimates around 18 million people need humanitarian assistance 2/

The FM says foreign fighters and terrorists are assisting the Taliban. They include fighters who are "globally focussed" (Al Qaeda) and others who are more "locally focussed" (LeT) He says there are implications for the whole region and the globe 3/

The FM says the Taliban broke the promises it made in Doha. He says Afghanistan "expects more from regional and international partners" to help it both prevent Taliban attacks and "accelerate the negotiation process" to attempt to reach a peace settlement 4/

FM says the UN and international community have called for the Taliban to honour the peace agreement but unless those calls are "backed up by real political, economic maybe even enforcement measures" then they're unlikely to have an impact on the ground 5/

What can Australia do to help now its forces have left Afghanistan? The FM says "I understand forces are withdrawn but continuation of partnership is crucial." He's a bit vague here. He says Australia is "well positioned to work with regional partners" to help Afghanistan 6/

Interesting but vague again. The FM says he's had "excellent discussions" with Marise Payne about security support: "I wouldn't go into details on defence strategy here but I did raise the idea of technologies that can be used to make up for the loss of (Coalition) air assets" 7/

Australia has closed its Embassy in Kabul but is already looking at how it can re-establish a diplomatic presence in Afghanistan. The FM says "of course we want an Australian diplomatic presence in Afghanistan" and it's committed to "doing whatever we can to provide security" 8/

Is it still realistic to pursue (or hope for) a peace settlement given the violence + the Taliban's actions? The FM says "yes and no." Adds if the international community "speaks with one voice" and puts real pressure on the Taliban then an agreement might still be "feasible" 9/

How about China's recent meetings with the Taliban? The FM says China has "legitimate interests" in Afghanistan because of threats posed by terror groups like ETIM: "China will have to become a central part of our regional and international efforts on security ... and peace" 10/

Last question. Are Afghan forces dispirited by the rapid gains made by the Taliban? The FM says Afghan forces don't lack courage but the sustained assault and the "absence of close air support" has diminished their capacity to resist the Taliban 11/

FM says those problems will "have to be addressed seriously" first by the Government of Afghanistan and "second through assistance from international partners." But again he doesn't lay out exactly what he'd like- perhaps more US air strikes while forces remain? 12/

On this: US has shown no appetite to ramp up air strikes. Deadline for full withdrawal unchanged - it is just over three weeks away 13/ apnews.com/article/joe-bi…

Coda: "a Pentagon spokesman emphasized that Americans now see the fight as one for Afghan political and military leaders to win or lose." 14/