Ireland’s Maritime Development Office (@IMDOIreland) has new stats which give us a clearer picture of what might be the permanent changes in trade patterns post-Brexit
The stats are for port volumes in Q2 21. It says Q1 was distorted by pre-Brexit stockpiling combined with strict pandemic restrictions in January & February. Q2 ‘therefore provides a more reliable insight into current volumes on ROI – GB routes.’
Overall volumes through Irish ports were pretty much back to pre-pandemic levels - down just 0.2% on Q2 19. However the composition has changed massively.
One third of all RoRo traffic in the Republic of Ireland now operates on direct routes to ports in the EU twice the share held in Q2 19. Rosslare RoRo up 22% on Q2 19. 71% of all RoI RoRo traffic is now unaccompanied, compared to 63% in Q2 2019. 
In Q2 21, RoI–GB RoRo volumes fell by 20% compared to Q2 19. For the first 6 months of 2021, GB traffic declined by 29% compared to 2019. RoI–GB traffic now accounts for 67% of RoI volumes, compared to 84% two years ago.
It’s also being felt in Lo-Lo (container) volumes. LoLo volumes through RoI ports set a record in Q2 2021, surpassing 300,000 TEUs for the first time.
IMDO say: ‘The vast majority of LoLo services on the island of Ireland are direct to continental EU ports. As a result, many of the factors that have driven a surge in ROI – EU RoRo traffic are applicable to the Irish LoLo market.’
It also sees competition between LoLo & unaccompanied RoRo: ‘In the last nine months, the substitutability between accompanied RoRo, unaccompanied RoRo and LoLo services has become more pronounced, with increased competition and dynamic capacity evident in each market.’
There are also impacts on NI ports. Remember NI goods have unfettered access to GB but only if they leave an NI port. That means some NI goods which were traditionally shipped out of Dublin are now shipping directly from NI.
IMDO say: ‘In Northern Ireland RoRo traffic in Q2 21 was the busiest on record, with traffic rising by 11% when compared Q2 2019. Of the three NI RoRo ports, Belfast and Warrenpoint both recorded their busiest ever three-month period, with Larne also recording robust growth.’
It adds: ‘From early 2021, it was clear that haulage companies based in Northern Ireland had transferred some traffic away from RoRo services in ROI in order to avoid the new customs requirements involved between Ireland and UK ports.’
Full thing here imdo.ie/Home/sites/def…
One other thing to add: GB still hasn’t started enforcing its trade border at its ports. This is due to start happening from October with a further phase in the new year. That could have additional impacts.
Another Protocol thing that people need to get to grips with is that benefits for one company ≠ necessarily increase in general welfare eg. import substitution good for individual firms but need to understand what that means for consumer prices before arriving at judgement.
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