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Jonathan Lai 🙊 賴柏羽 Profile picture
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12 Aug, 11 tweets, 2 min read
Here are the official Census population numbers for Pennsylvania’s 67 counties for 2010, 2020, and how they’ve changed.

Format: [2010 population] to [2020 population] (change)
Adams: 101,407 to 103,852 (+2,445)
Allegheny: 1,223,348 to 1,250,578 (+27,230)
Armstrong: 68,941 to 65,558 (-3,383)
Beaver: 170,539 to 168,215 (-2,324)
Bedford: 49,762 to 47,577 (-2,185)
Berks: 411,442 to 428,849 (+17,407)
Blair: 127,089 to 122,822 (-4,267)
Bradford: 62,622 to 59,967 (-2,655)
Bucks: 625,249 to 646,538 (+21,289)
Butler: 183,862 to 193,763 (+9,901)
Cambria: 143,679 to 133,472 (-10,207)
Cameron: 5,085 to 4,547 (-538)
Carbon: 65,249 to 64,749 (-500)
Centre: 153,990 to 158,172 (+4,182)
Chester: 498,886 to 534,413 (+35,527)
Clarion: 39,988 to 37,241 (-2,747)
Clearfield: 81,642 to 80,562 (-1,080)
Clinton: 39,238 to 37,450 (-1,788)
Columbia: 67,295 to 64,727 (-2,568)
Crawford: 88,765 to 83,938 (-4,827)
Cumberland: 235,406 to 259,469 (+24,063)
Dauphin: 268,100 to 286,401 (+18,301)
Delaware: 558,979 to 576,830 (+17,851)
Elk: 31,946 to 30,990 (-956)
Erie: 280,566 to 270,876 (-9,690)
Fayette: 136,606 to 128,804 (-7,802)
Forest: 7,716 to 6,973 (-743)
Franklin: 149,618 to 155,932 (+6,314)
Fulton: 14,845 to 14,556 (-289)
Greene: 38,686 to 35,954 (-2,732)
Huntingdon: 45,913 to 44,092 (-1,821)
Indiana: 88,880 to 83,246 (-5,634)
Jefferson: 45,200 to 44,492 (-708)
Juniata: 24,636 to 23,509 (-1,127)
Lackawanna: 214,437 to 215,896 (+1,459)
Lancaster: 519,445 to 552,984 (+33,539)
Lawrence: 91,108 to 86,070 (-5,038)
Lebanon: 133,568 to 143,257 (+9,689)
Lehigh: 349,497 to 374,557 (+25,060)
Luzerne: 320,918 to 325,594 (+4,676)
Lycoming: 116,111 to 114,188 (-1,923)
McKean: 43,450 to 40,432 (-3,018)
Mercer: 116,638 to 110,652 (-5,986)
Mifflin: 46,682 to 46,143 (-539)
Monroe: 169,842 to 168,327 (-1,515)
Montgomery: 799,874 to 856,553 (+56,679)
Montour: 18,267 to 18,136 (-131)
Northampton: 297,735 to 312,951 (+15,216)
Northumberland: 94,528 to 91,647 (-2,881)
Perry: 45,969 to 45,842 (-127)
Philadelphia: 1,526,006 to 1,603,797 (+77,791)
Pike: 57,369 to 58,535 (+1,166)
Potter: 17,457 to 16,396 (-1,061)
Schuylkill: 148,289 to 143,049 (-5,240)
Snyder: 39,702 to 39,736 (+34)
Somerset: 77,742 to 74,129 (-3,613)
Sullivan: 6,428 to 5,840 (-588)
Susquehanna: 43,356 to 38,434 (-4,922)
Tioga: 41,981 to 41,045 (-936)
Union: 44,947 to 42,681 (-2,266)
Venango: 54,984 to 50,454 (-4,530)
Warren: 41,815 to 38,587 (-3,228)
Washington: 207,820 to 209,349 (+1,529)
Wayne: 52,822 to 51,155 (-1,667)
Westmoreland: 365,169 to 354,663 (-10,506)
Wyoming: 28,276 to 26,069 (-2,207)
York: 434,972 to 456,438 (+21,466)

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More from @Elaijuh

Jonathan Lai 🙊 賴柏羽 Profile picture
7 Jul
One reason I wanted to write about voter ID is bc of this more fundamental question:

What if impact on turnout isn’t the right way to answer a question of voting rights? How should we think about and evaluate election policies?

That’s why I needed to talk to @hakeemjefferson:
“One of the frustrations for me as a political scientist who thinks of himself as caring deeply about causal effects [is] it bothers me that so many social scientists treat this topic as if it’s like everything else that we’ve studied,” Jefferson said.
“In a democracy, the right to vote is sacred,” @hakeemjefferson said, adding that “we should simply be bothered by the burden placed on voters, period, irrespective of whether the thing works or not, whether the restrictive voting law works to suppress turnout.”
Read 6 tweets
Jonathan Lai 🙊 賴柏羽 Profile picture
7 Jul
PA State Sen. Doug Mastriano is asking three counties, including Philly, for essentially all election-related equipment and ballots as part of a “forensic investigation” into the 2020 election and 2021 primary.

@AndrewSeidman and me:
inquirer.com/politics/elect…
Mastriano’s sprawling requests include stuff like all ballots; mail ballot applications; mail ballot envelopes; voting machines; ballot scanners and vote-counting equipment; ballot production equipment; poll books; computer logs; computer equipment used through election process.
Among the things to watch: Election preparation begins looooong before Election Day.

If an “audit” takes months (think Arizona), that would significantly disrupt a county’s ability to run an election.
Read 6 tweets
Jonathan Lai 🙊 賴柏羽 Profile picture
6 Jul
A key GOP lawmaker says PA counties aren’t going to be getting the two things they’ve been calling for: earlier processing of mail ballots and more realistic deadlines.

Rep. Seth Grove (R., York) says he’s done with election legislation until 2023:
inquirer.com/politics/elect…
“It is over until we get a new governor. We have learned our lesson,” said Grove, the chair of the House State Government Committee, after Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed his HB1300.

“Counties are just going to have to deal with it,” he said.
Grove said counties should have been more open to other changes Republicans wanted: “They got everything they wanted, and their only comment was, ‘Well, that’s nice, but we just want these two things.’ Well, that doesn’t work. Nor do we have the votes for your two little things.”
Read 4 tweets
Jonathan Lai 🙊 賴柏羽 Profile picture
6 Jul
As the voter ID fight once again takes center stage in PA, you’ll probably hear a lot of competing claims.

Here are some key things to know, including why it’s so complicated to know how voter ID affects turnout and whether that’s even the right measure:
inquirer.com/politics/elect…
First thing to know: Significant voter fraud, especially voter impersonation, is virtually nonexistent.

“We have tremendous evidence that voter ID laws do absolutely nothing to prevent voter fraud, because there is no systematic voter fraud to prevent,” said @blfraga.
State Rep. Seth Grove (R., York), the author of HB1300, acknowledged the voter ID proposal wouldn’t address an existing problem — “It’s not to say that there has been any” fraud — but described the current rules as “a loophole that can be exploited” in the future.
Read 8 tweets
Jonathan Lai 🙊 賴柏羽 Profile picture
5 Jul
I just spoke with Edward Cagney Mathews, the man in the video.

Among a bunch of other things, he said he was drunk and lost control.

Re: the slurs:

“If he was white, i'm gonna call him a monkey or a n--, too … anybody that knows me knows that I just talk like this.”
Mathews’ ex-wife just called. Says he’s not racist but “he believes in freedom of speech” and “his mouth gets him in trouble, definitely … yes, he made some slurs, okay? Nobody’s perfect.”

“one of his best friends is Puerto Rican, from Camden, he’s got a lot of Black friends”
Mathews: “I know how it looks, and there is no justifying what I said, in any manner”

“I said the wrong thing. I don’t know, it is what it is. It’s almost like if I’m driving down the road and I’m drunk and I killed somebody, I didn’t mean to kill somebody”
Read 7 tweets
Jonathan Lai 🙊 賴柏羽 Profile picture
7 Jan
PA’s SURE system doesn’t say there are 205K more votes than voters. That flawed analysis was done using incomplete data.

Reality: You simply can’t just count the number of participating voters in SURE rn — counties are STILL UPDATING vote histories.

inquirer.com/politics/elect…
Yes, counties that have been dealing with a flood of mail ballots, and running the election with humans, are still finalizing their updates to vote histories in SURE.

MY OWN vote history was only updated last week (12/28) by Philly elections officials.
Basically, in claiming there were 205K more votes than voters in Pennsylvania, you’re taking an incomplete dataset and being shocked that it is not complete.
Read 4 tweets

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