Tell me you don’t understand gerrymandering without saying “I don’t understand gerrymandering.”
Demographics have favored Democrats for a decade now. But 4 million more votes in 2020 only gave them a 5-seat congressional majority based on the old gerrymandered maps.
PA was gerrymandered in 2011. The following year, Democrats won 51% of the vote statewide. That translated to 5/18 congressional seats.
That map was eventually struck down by a court, which allowed Democrats to win back the House in 2018.
But now it happens again.
There is no out-organizing a gerrymander. Democrats had to enact legislation in the 8 months before the census data was released and the map-drawing began.
But they didn’t. Biden clung to the filibuster as voting rights advocates begged him to join their fight.
It’s over.
The worst damage is going to be at the state level. Democrats have been completely unable to break the GOP hold on statehouses for a decade. It’s stymied progress for a decade. Now, it’s gonna happen again. Another decade gone.
Liberals have spent years betting on demographics to deliver the country from Republicans. In that time, the GOP organized and won.
Gerrymandering renders demographic shifts moot.
Democrats needed to ban the practice in the 8 months they had.
It’s technically possible for them to pass reform when they come back. But it’s much less likely that it will apply to this round of gerrymandering.
In other words, we’ve lost majoritarian democracy for a decade thanks to Democratic inaction.
This whole thing would be easier to stomach had Biden thrown his weight behind eliminating the filibuster and Sen. Manchin and Sinema actually faced consequences for their open defiance.
And it maybe it would help if liberals were willing to demand more from those they elect.
In any case, if you want a breakdown of how much trouble we’re in, I wrote about it.
For this piece, I interviewed Michael Li of the Brennan Center and David Daley, who wrote the book on gerrymandering “Ratfucked.”
It'd be great if the liberal response wasn't, "Stop attacking Dems!"
The country is about to lose majoritarian rule for a decade. The minority party that will be in control of Congress and the states doesn't believe in climate change.
The window to stop it is rapidly closing.
Now is the time to bang on doors, fill up answering machines, demonstrate in the streets, and demand more from the people who have the power to do something about it.
There's no telling when the maps will be completed in each state. Congress and the Senate shouldn't be on recess
I mean, that time was also any time in the last 8 months before the census data was released to the states...
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Obama fell asleep, got blown out in state races in a census year midterm, costing Dems Congress until 2018 due to GOP gerrymandering.
His VP cost Dems the state races in a census year election, setting GOP up to gerrymander again. As POTUS, he didn’t act to ban gerrymandering.
Don’t blame the left for Democrats losing elections.
Blame the centrists, who think small and do little, constantly triangulate and fight like hell to keep progressives out of office. All they do is allow Republicans to ratfuck our system and pull politics to the right.
8 months.
There’s no excuse for not passing a gerrymandering ban with 8 fucking months and control of Washington.
We know what’s coming.
So the choices are: complicit, stupid, incompetent, or some combination.
They just fucked the planet and the most vulnerable for a decade
I love the show. It proves that it's possible to make a good, modern Star Trek.
I just cannot get over how weak Discovery is by comparison.
It's like they didn't even try to make Trek.
Critics loved Discovery. They even called it innovative.
But Trek is a show about a post-scarcity socialist utopia in space. Episodes are moral parables. Turning that into a gritty/hyperreal serial about war and survival isn't innovative.
It's robbing it of its fundamentals
Worse, it's making it indistinguishable from other, arguably better sci-fi shows.
The best part about Discovery is that they really improved in terms of representation. But otherwise, it's just hard to watch -- joyless with forgettable characters.
The Senate is adjourned until September. Redistricting reform was not passed and tomorrow, the gerrymandering begins.
Dems are not playing chess. They had 6 months to pass this reform and failed to prioritize it, surrendering democracy without a fight.
Bamboozled again!
Fitting that the president who led Democrats to perpetual minority party status by failing to do anything to stop GOP gerrymandering is the former VP of the last guy who let it happen.
🤷♂️
Without putting too fine a point on it, Democrats just fucked us all. They’re allowing the Republicans to halt progress for a decade.
On Aug 16, 12 days from now, the U.S. Census Bureau will release census data to the states and redistricting will begin.
In 37 states, elected officials redraw the congressional and state legislative districts. 20 of those states are fully controlled by Republicans; 9 are split.
Last time Republicans had such an advantage heading into the process (which will conclude within weeks for most of the US), the maps gave them 15-17 extra House seats.
This time will be worse. In 2019, the SCOTUS okayed gerrymandering, saying it is an issue for the legislature.
Republicans are already planning on pressing their advantage.
Rep. Ronny Jackson actually said at an event with religious conservatives that redistricting alone "should get us the majority back.”
Democrats can prevent this. But they have to act quickly.
If Dems pass redistricting reform after August 16, when the census data is released to the states, they’ll have to write the legislation to take retroactive effect. The bill will also not be as robust as it would if it were passed beforehand.
And it will surely mean lawsuits.
It will also make the bill harder to pass because some Democrats are surely going to enjoy their new safe districts—no matter how bad things are at the macro level for the party and liberal voters.
14 days until the Republicans gerrymander the Democrats out of power for a decade.
Congress is in recess.
If redistricting reform doesn't happen -- and it seems like it won't -- it will be a historic waste of power and time.
It will ensure climate change goes unchallenged and have devastating consequences for future generations.
I want to reiterate that this isn't about whether or not corporate Democrats have power.
It's about whether or not the demographics who typically vote liberal and left (a majority of Americans) can elect a congressional majority. If not, it's devastating.