Thread by @tobyharnden

Thread about Mazar-i Sharif, where I spent time last November. Mazar was the first major city to be captured by Northern Alliance forces (supported by the US) after 9/11 (Nov 9, 2001) and now appears to have fallen to the Taliban. 1/20

Then, the main anti-Taliban players were the same as 2021 - Atta Mohammmed Noor (Tajik), Abdul Rashid Dostum (Uzbek), and Mohammed Mohaqeq (Hazara). In 2001, they had alongside them CIA operatives, Green Berets, UKSF (SBS) and US air power. Now, they are alone 2/20

Mazar, a thriving commercial hub, is the key to controlling the entire north and advancing on Kabul - that was the case in 2001, and it is the case now. From 1996 to 1998, when it fell to the Taliban, Mazar was a center of resistance. 3/20

The first casualty for the US after 9/11 was killed in Mazar - CIA officer Mike Spann, during Qala-i Jangi prisoner uprising on Nov 25, 2001. Current info in this thread is from non-Pashtun sources in Afghanistan, principally the north, and US intelligence sources. 4/20

These sources describe a desperate fight in Mazar, the scene of gruesome sectarian massacres - and the genocide of Hazaras by the Taliban - in the 1990s. Historic information is from my forthcoming book First Casualty, out Sep 7. 5/20

Just before 9/11, Dostum gave a bullet to his security chief Abdul Sattar and asked him to shoot Dostum if they were overrun by the Taliban. Pictures from this week show Sattar once again at Dostum's side. Sattar was recently wounded in Sheberghan. 6/20

Once again, the talk is of fighting "to the last bullet." Arab states have prevailed on Taliban to accept surrenders without killing prisoners - witness Ismail Khan in Herat. But the likes of Dostum and Sattar have no illusion about being spared. 7/20

I met Dostum and many of his commanders who had fought with him and the US in 2001 over course of weeks in Shebergahn and Mazar last Nov/Dec. 20 years on, they are still his commanders and have been with him in Mazar. 8/20

Remember their names - they could be dead already, or within days: Abdul Sattar, Mohammed Faqir, Akram, Yar Mohammed, Haji Hashim. Afghan patriots and brave American allies. 9/20

Atta (fired by Ghani as Balkh province governor in 2017) was nominally in command in Mazar with Dostum as his "adviser" - a reverse of the positions in 2001. Atta and Dostum are rivals, and have fought against each other in the past. But when it matters, they are together 10/20

This arrangement was made after Ghani proposed Juma Khan Hamdard - a Pashtun and former acolyte of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar - as military leader in Mazar. That was seen as Ghani prepping the battlefield for surrender to the Taliban & saving own skin (looking to life in exile) 11/20

The options for Atta, Dostum, and Mohaqeq were to stand and fight in Mazar, to flee overseas (as they have done before), or to head for the mountains south of Mazar, which was where they were on 9/11. 12/20

In Oct 2001, they were joined by US forces, first the eight members of CIA's Team Alpha, who landed in Darya Suf Valley at 0200 on Oct 17, 2001. But before 9/11, these anti-Taliban leaders were about to be overrun. Only US assistance could save them then - and now. 13/20

Dostum is probably the most notorious "warlord" in Afghanistan. I use quotation marks because what successful ethnic leader in a country ravaged by war for decades could not be called a warlord? Dostum has blood on his hands, certainly; he revels in image, to his detriment 14/20

He has switched sides (fought with Soviets, with Hekmatyar, with and against Ahmad Shah Massoud etc.) but he has always acted in the interests of his own Uzbek people, who revere him. The Mazar he presided over in 1990s was secular; women, by Afghan standards, were free. 15/20

Dostum is not religious and loathes the Taliban and Islamists. Is he perfect? Of course not. But in 2001 he was the leader who stepped up and fought most effectively against the Taliban. 16/20

In 2001, while "Gucci Afghans" (term used by some in CIA to describe Tajiks in Panjshir Valley, and Afghans returning from exile - men who had mostly never fought) waited and wanted more money and more US support, Dostum fought and won. 17/20

After Taliban regime fell in 2001, Dostum became a pariah to US (google Dasht-e Leili), which wanted a centralized govt run by "Gucci Afghans" like Hamid Karzai. Pashtuns & Pakistan loathed Dostum. President Ashraf Ghani could be described as the ultimate Gucci Afghan. 18/20

Dostum and Atta's men are still fighting around Mazar. So are Mohaqeq's - Taliban views Hazaras as non-Muslim vermin. Reports are that Afghan forces not fighting - because Ghani expects the whole country to fall and is positioning himself to deal with a victorious Taliban 19/20

What will happen now Mazar has fallen, drenched in blood once again? Maybe Dostum and Atta will escape. Hard to see them surrendering. In 2001, Kabul fell to Northern Alliance and US forces on Nov 12, three days after Mazar. Taliban seem to be moving as quickly in 2021. 20/20 End