What happens to Pakistani leverage in Afghanistan over US/NATO. Pakistan milked it to hilt to blackmail Americans & kept the bleeding in Afghanistan from its proxies. Of course China is the biggest net gainer of Taliban in Afghanistan not a client state Pakistan.
Pakistani military & economy survives on Aid & Alms. Where does the money & arms come from to Back Taliban Administration in Afghanistan. Unlikely from America, most likely from China who will like integrate Afghanistan into BRI & connect it to Railways with centra asia & Iran.
BRI could be well extended into Afghanistan from Central Asia onwards to Iran & Gulf. Along with comes rich REE & REM reserves. Joe has been biggest enabler of China, much like Clintons, Bushes & Nixons.
For America its like i live between two oceans & secured borders i have a powerful military to bomb Afghanistan at will any time. Now when it comes to India, we will likely face revival of Militancy push in J&K as Pakistan with help of China has regained its strategic depth.
What is in it for Russia. Well for Russia its primarily its backyard in Central Asia for which it is worried about, it seems to have back channels with Taliban thru China. Iran & Russia would prefer manageable Taliban over growing ISIS presence.
Hindsight India’s removal of Article 370 was brilliantly timed knowing full well that even Trump has committed to withdrawing from Afghanistan as his motto. Pakistan endeavours to raise the stake with India will be met with higher response like Uri or say even Balakot.
The biggest hurdle in Jihad 2.0 for Pakistan in the region is Narendra Modi. Get Opposition/Congress in and we are back to mid 90s & mid 2007-08. Its even more imperative we need a strong government in India as a deterrent to Pakistan jihadi endeavours.
Is QUAD Dysfunctional. Absolutely not. The current events only enforce the policy of MEA S Jaishankar that Multi Polar world needs multi alignment and u can not put ur eggs in one basket. India is balancing USA & Russia well as of now.
Along with QUAD you will have other tri-laterals like France, India & Australia tri-laterals. There are strategic partnerships for a broader perspective of the region and they cant be viewed with the Prism of Afghanistan.
The American administration is now more & flexible to back India as the Pakistani now totally sinks into Chinese Axis and it losses that blackmailing power due to Afghan access. Just some initial analysis. Lets see how this pans out.
And last but not the least this is text book creation of #IslamicCommunism Axis and events Afghanistan has given them a big fillup. Time for Democracies to up their game as well which will be done as we head into #TheNextGreatWar as predicted in our book #TheNewGlobalOrder !
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