I am beyond thrilled the President Biden is taking the long overdue step to adjust the Thrift Food Plan to be in line with the increased cost of healthy food. This is a large advance for poverty reduction, nutrition and opportunity for children.
In a 2015 CEA report we explained why the long-standing practice of updating the Thrifty Food Plan, the basis for the SNAP benefits, by inflation was an inadequate reflection of the increased cost of a nutritious meal. I'll list the reasons in this thread. obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/whitehou…
1. VARIETY & PALATABILITY. The TFP departs sharply from avg food consumption. The TFP assumes consumption of foods like beans, whole wheat pasta, etc. 20X the average American consumption, while assuming near-zero consumption of some healthful foods that Americans eat regularly.
2. PREP TIME. The TFP assumes greater meal prep time than families typically spend preparing meals, btwn 1-2 hours of prep time per day, excluding shopping, but studies of low-income women found that they do not spend as much time on food prep as the TFP assumes
3. VARIATIONS IN COST. The cost of the TFP is not regionally adjusted though food costs vary substantially by location. In addition, low-income households are less likely to have access to large grocery stores that offer lower prices.
4. LAG IN INFLATION ADJUSTMENT. Every year, the TFP is adjusted for inflation. But there is a lag in the inflation adjustment of as much as 16 months by the following September. If food prices are rising over that 16 month period, the value of SNAP benefits are eroding.
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Overall the jobs report is reassuring. A healthy 142K jobs added, average weekly hours increased, participation stayed the same, and most importantly the unemployment rate fell back to 4.2%.
Pace of job growth (adjusting for benchmark revision) mostly unchanged over last year.
Here's the unemployment rate. It is what most people were watching most closely because of difficulties measuring monthly jobs and knowing what numbers for them are hot or cold. It broke from four increases in a row to tick down as the surge in temporary layoffs receded a little.
Reason to be cautious as the Sahm rule is still triggered. I don't find the mitigating arguments fully persuasive (e.g., the increase is due to labor supply not demand or hiring down not firing up). But more important, may simply be like other recession indicators-very imperfect.
1. Do not tax the normal return to capital, instead tax consumption.
2. IF you're taxing capital gains, better to tax a broader base & lower rate with more neutrality, so tax accruals.
I come back to this below, the Platonic ideal may not be achievable in practice. And the "standard" theory may be wrong because it leaves out important considerations. But still, worth taking seriously.
On the second, the argument is that FOR A GIVEN LEVEL OF CAPITAL TAXATION it is better to have a broader base and a lower rate. A [10%] capital gains tax on accrued gains leads to less distortions than a 23.8% tax on realized gains.
Moreover, the relatively little core inflation we've had in the last three months was more than entirely shelter. If you take shelter out then the annual rates are:
The big news in this morning's job release is the unemployment rate up to 4.3% while job growth slows to 114K, wage growth slows and average weekly hours fall. The only contra-indicator was labor force participation up 0.1pp.
The Sahm recession indicator has triggered. This is a variant of a rule Goldman Sachs economists developed--and was the basis for the fiscal stimulus calls that many of us were making in late 2007 and early 2008 when there was a similar run-up of unemployment.
There are stories now about the unemployment rate increase being inflows of immigrants. And we're not seeing increase in layoffs that are more reassuring than the past. But it is still unnerving to see what has been a reliable signal in the past get triggered.
Here are the full set of numbers I'll be discussing in this thread.
Before I go any further, here is actual inflation (including food and energy). It was basically non-existent in May and June as sharp falls in energy prices nearly offset all the other price increases (food price growth was moderate).