Thread by @hyzaidi

Like so many others, I have been thinking a lot about what’s going down in Afghanistan, what it means for Afghanistan and for us in Pakistan. I have to admit that fast-moving events and a multitude of emotions do cloud clear analysis. So I allowed myself the time to step back…>

But I think things are becoming clearer to me. But before I come to my realisations, let me just reiterate where I’m coming from. I’m very critical of the Taliban worldview but having spent some time in Afghanistan towards the end of their last rule, I also feel I understand…>

…the tragic circumstances that gave birth to them. I am not one of those who believe they were a simple Pak proxy force and I found the narrative built up in the post-2001 world by the US and those it propped up in power to be self-delusional. They believed their own stories…>

…about the Taliban ‘running back to Pak from whence it had come’ because they wanted to believe them, not because it reflected reality. At the same time, Pak claims of not providing sanctuary to at least some of the Taliban leadership were equally disingenuous. Nevertheless…>

…the speed with which the Taliban overran Afghanistan has startled everyone. There is a good side to this. What it means is a broad consensus may yet be possible, since the speed and lack of resistance indicate that talks had been ongoing for some time betw the Taliban…>

…and many of their opposition. This would also mean that a civil war may be averted in the short term at least, which would mean that the feared massive refugee outflux from Afghanistan could be avoided. In geo-strategic terms, it would also be a bonus for Pakistan bec it…>

…rids it of the immediate fears of Indian encirclement and sanctuary for anti-Pak forces… Maybe: how the Taliban deal with their ideological cousins the TTP still remains to be seen.

So what’s the downside?

The more I think about it, the more I think the real dividing line…>

…is women. Nobody will face the brunt of the return of the Taliban more than women. For all the claims of their having changed, the Taliban have so far not demonstrated any evidence that they will be willing to accept women as equals in public life. Unless they suddenly…>

…make a public announcement of change, this will be THE polarising issue. How you feel about the events in Afghanistan will depend primarily on whether you believe women are equal stakeholders in Afghanistan or not.

Finally, this will have a knock-on effect on Pakistan. …>

…Condoning any rule in Afghanistan that severely restricts women like in the previous Taliban regime, will only embolden similar forces here. This is a given. This is exactly what happened last time. You cannot hope to keep your social fabric isolated while providing…>

…legitimacy or even lip service to something as regressive.

Of course, such a ‘stability’ or ‘peace’ in Afghanistan that depends on repression / denial of rights to half the population will also not be sustainable in the long run. It never has, anywhere in the world.