Good question, let’s talk threat spectrum!
I find it best to think of the threat spectrum as sort of a sliding scale.
All the way on the left side of the spectrum would be “no threat” and all the way right would be “terrorists have weapons of mass destruction”
I find it best to think of the threat spectrum as sort of a sliding scale.
All the way on the left side of the spectrum would be “no threat” and all the way right would be “terrorists have weapons of mass destruction”
https://twitter.com/dhowser9/status/1427269421123375111
If you were plotting it from left to right, it would look something like this:
No Threat > Lone Wolves > Coordinated single attacks w/ 100s of casualties > Multi-pronged, simultaneous attack that can kill thousands (think 9/11) > Terrorists have nukes and/or biological weapons
No Threat > Lone Wolves > Coordinated single attacks w/ 100s of casualties > Multi-pronged, simultaneous attack that can kill thousands (think 9/11) > Terrorists have nukes and/or biological weapons
Right now, the Taliban is somewhere between ‘Lone wolf’ and “Coordinated single attack” on the mock spectrum above.
One of the absolute fundamentals of counterterrorism is that you keep pressure on the terrorists to stop them from planning new attacks.
One of the absolute fundamentals of counterterrorism is that you keep pressure on the terrorists to stop them from planning new attacks.
The reason for this is simple:
When they’re focused personal security, and on simply surviving, they understandably focus less on their operational aspirations.
We saw this with al Qaeda, and we saw it with the Taliban. We’ve also seen it to lesser extent with Boko Haram.
When they’re focused personal security, and on simply surviving, they understandably focus less on their operational aspirations.
We saw this with al Qaeda, and we saw it with the Taliban. We’ve also seen it to lesser extent with Boko Haram.
With unlimited time to plan, and their newfound cache of American weapons, we could easily see the Taliban move further right on the threat spectrum.
Allowing them to operate unimpeded allows more time to recruit, both further expanding their influence and operational capability
Allowing them to operate unimpeded allows more time to recruit, both further expanding their influence and operational capability
I hope I’m wrong when I say this, but I don’t think I am:
This certainly appears to be setting the stage for an al Qaeda resurgence with Taliban support, and sooner or later, we will probably end up back in Afghanistan.
This certainly appears to be setting the stage for an al Qaeda resurgence with Taliban support, and sooner or later, we will probably end up back in Afghanistan.
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