If you were plotting it from left to right, it would look something like this:
No Threat > Lone Wolves > Coordinated single attacks w/ 100s of casualties > Multi-pronged, simultaneous attack that can kill thousands (think 9/11) > Terrorists have nukes and/or biological weapons
Right now, the Taliban is somewhere between ‘Lone wolf’ and “Coordinated single attack” on the mock spectrum above.
One of the absolute fundamentals of counterterrorism is that you keep pressure on the terrorists to stop them from planning new attacks.
The reason for this is simple:
When they’re focused personal security, and on simply surviving, they understandably focus less on their operational aspirations.
We saw this with al Qaeda, and we saw it with the Taliban. We’ve also seen it to lesser extent with Boko Haram.
With unlimited time to plan, and their newfound cache of American weapons, we could easily see the Taliban move further right on the threat spectrum.
Allowing them to operate unimpeded allows more time to recruit, both further expanding their influence and operational capability
I hope I’m wrong when I say this, but I don’t think I am:
This certainly appears to be setting the stage for an al Qaeda resurgence with Taliban support, and sooner or later, we will probably end up back in Afghanistan.
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Most of you probably know by now, but the basic reproduction number, or R0, is how epidemiologist gauge the infectiousness of a particular virus.
It’s also looked at as the average number of people an infected person will infect. 1/X
You may remember early on in the pandemic, Covid-19 was estimated somewhere around an R3, meaning that every covid positive person was likely to infect around 3 more.
Not great, obviously. 2/X
You may also remember talking about how we had to “drive the R down” via methods like masks, social distancing, capacity limits, etc.
The goal is to get R under 1, meaning that every infected person would infect less than one additional person. That’s how you slow the spread 3/X
Let’s talk “unmasking” and the latest Fox News bullshit tornado, shall we?
It’s no secret that the US intelligence community routinely—and lawfully—collects the communications of foreign persons of interest.
So what happens when a US person is caught up in that collection? 1/X
There are strict minimization requirements in place to protect the identity of any United States citizen or permanent resident that is incidentally collected while monitoring a foreign national.
This shows up as “US Person 1,” etc. on intercepts. 2/X
If a senior official feels that the identity of one or more of the minimized US persons is necessary to understand the context of the communications, they can request that the originating (read: collecting) agency reveal (‘unmask’) their identity. 3/X
According to the Guardian, they have a directive with Putin’s signature on it, confirming kompromat on a “mentally unstable” Donald Trump, and ordering Russia’s intelligence agencies to do everything possible to get him elected.
The document refers to Trump as an ‘impulsive, mentally unstable and unbalanced individual who suffers from an inferiority complex,’ and someone they judge could help promulgate ‘social turmoil’ in the United States.
All true. 2/X
With that being said, it’s important to understand how Russia operates, and, as always, I would urge everyone to not immediately give in to confirmation bias. 3/X
With the first Presidential trip in the books, we just witnessed a master class in statesmanship from Biden.
Sure, it’s easy to say the bar was set low by Trump, but let’s take a look at some of what was accomplished.
Thread:
First, and perhaps most importantly, Biden gave a full-throated, unequivocal statement of support for Article 5 and the collective defense of our NATO partners.
He also publicly committed to the defend Ukraine’s interests against further Russian incursions.
He and the other world leaders came to an agreement on a *massive* vaccine sharing plan — at least 870 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine from G7 countries to help ease the worldwide pandemic.
There was also never a possibility for Pence to “send the results back” to the states — that Trump/Flynn/Powell crock of shit came entirely too close to getting Pence killed.
Lies are always dangerous, but particularly so coming from people who had/have power.
At first, I thought maybe the QAnon cult would realize they’re being scammed after literally none of “Q’s” predictions came true.
Then, they started counting flags on a stage, seeing signs in clouds, and using Trump’s verbal flubs as “evidence” and I knew it was hopeless.