Thread by @bluetrader660

Thread..
1/If you're looking for an answer to how the shitshow in Kabul happened I think you have to start with the escape from Bagram AB in the middle of the night. There was no reason to leave Bagram the way US forces did unless they knew something.

apnews.com/article/bagram…

2/You see, the Taliban was already beginning to rampage across many of the provinces of Afghanistan. Their equivalent of the Tet Offensive had already been going on for a couple of months. The story below is from June.
nbcnews.com/politics/natio…

3/I believe that our forces had information/intel that Bagram was in the bullseye and was going to be the target of a large, coordinated attack. A sort of final slap by the Taliban against our forces.

4/At that point, the Biden administration had a choice to make. Abandon Bagram or, reinforce it and fight off the Taliban. Well, they couldn't reinforce it because Biden had already said we were pulling out. I also think the Biden admin had visions of Khe Sanh in their heads.

5/I mean, Biden could have reinforced Bagram if he wanted but, that would have meant he would have had to backtrack on pulling out (press heat), and the optics of a full blown battle around Bagram as we're 'supposed' to be leaving was not something he wanted to deal with either.

6/So, the easiest path for Biden was to just leave Bagram. Or, at least it seemed that was the easiest path at the time the decision was made. they gambled on the fact that at least Kabul would remain secure for awhile and they could buy some time to figure things out.

7/Not a horrible plan but, they didn't think it through to the next step. They obviously didn't allow for the possibility that the Taliban would take Kabul so quickly. A plan should always contain a worst case scenario and a contingency for that scenario.

8/I'm sorry. Sending in the 82nd ABN and Marines as the Taliban are crashing the gates of Kabul is/was not a contingency. It was a reaction. A reaction made in haste and in panic. If Biden and his advisors had played through the worst case scenario to it's end..

9/they would have developed a contingency for it. They also would have found that keeping Bagram, a short chopper ride from the Embassy, would have been in their best interest. At the very least, it should have been kept as an alternate airfield.

10/By closing Bagram they took an option off of the table. Anyone who has ever had to plan for any type of critical incident knows that you never remove options. Rather, you try and expand your options, plan for multiple contingencies and build flexibility into your plan.

11/If Bagram was in fact the target of a Taliban attack it could have been beaten pretty quickly. Bagram is not near a large pop. center. This would allow us to leverage our airpower with minimal risk of endangering civilians. It's also a short chopper ride from the embassy

12/It's also likely that Kabul wouldn't have fallen if Bagram stood. If the Taliban had launched a major attack on Bagram and suffered horrendous casualties, and they would have, they wouldn't have had the strength to attack Kabul.

13/Sure. Keeping Bagram open and possibly fighting a large battle there as we're supposed to be leaving would have been politically unpopular. Worse, we likely would have lost troops. Which, would have been horrible so close to the end.

14/I do think Biden was presented the option of keeping Bagram open and the potential for a battle there if he did. And, I am almost certain we knew that potential was there. You don't leave like we left Bagram if everything was just fine. Something was up.

15/It wouldn't have been an easy decision to make. It actually would have been a painful decision to make knowing that we would likely lose lives in a battle around Bagram. True leaders make painful decisions. But, Biden is not a true leader.

16/That is why we find ourselves in the current debacle. Biden's decision cycle was guided by fear of bad optics, political considerations, and had it's foundation on a strategy of hope sprinkled with a little bit of gamble.

17/We shouldn't be surprised though. He's just doing what he's always done. Biden is a political animal. He knows nothing else. Therefore, everything he does is guided by his political instincts which will never be wrong. All you have to do is blame your fuck ups on somebody else