Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
Aug 17, 2021 26 tweets 9 min read Read on X
I worked for 4y in an online financial advice company. This is what I learned on how to put your finances in order. 🧵

Three types of investors, each with their own mistakes: self-directed, with financial advisor, and those who leave their $ in the bank.
Issue #1: Ppl leave their $ in the bank
This is what our $ does in the bank vs. invested
After 60y, invested $ is 10x more than bank account $.

Put in another way: 1 day of work putting your finances in order is 10x more important for $ than your entire professional career.
Another fun stat: within 15 years of working, you accumulate more $ from your investments than from your work savings
Another fun stat: if you retire at 60 after investing, to get to the same level of $ through only work + putting your $ in your bank account, you'd need to work for an additional.... 44 years!

So investing is the difference between retiring early and not retiring at all

Invest!
In what should you invest though?

Issue #2: Don't diversify enough
Ppl pick a few stocks they believe in and that's it. Or put all their savings in one investment. Terrible.

You should instead invest as diversified as possible.
Vanguard does a good job at this. They invented index funds/ETFs in the 1970s, and it has taken time for ppl to catch up, but now they are managing... $7 trillion!

For orders of magnitude, global equity markets have $70T in investments...
Roboadvisors also do a very good job at this. I worked at sigfig.com so I'm very biased. Do your own research, this is informational/entertainment only and not financial advice.

But I was a roboadvice customer before joining, and still am.
Other great roboadvisors: Wealthfront, Betterment, Ellevest in the US...

Plenty in Europe
robo-advisors.eu
Issue #3: Trying to beat the market
This is the nightmare scenario of a self-directed investor, a person who picks the stocks to invest in.

S/he traded too much trying to beat the market, and lost $300k s/he doesn't have
Another example: this guy invested $15k in credit card debt and two $30k home equity loans, He has $7k left

Same thing: tried to beat the market.
As Mark Hanna would say:
“Name of the game: Move the money from your clients’ pocket into your pocket.... Number 1 rule of Wall Street: Nobody [...] knows if the stock is going to go up, down, sideways or in f* circles, least of all stockbrokers.”

Warren Buffet says it less flamboyantly:
“Lethargy, bordering on sloth, should remain the cornerstone of an investment style. Why? Because constantly buying and selling in an attempt to beat the market is a fool’s errand. It simply won’t work.”
To prove the point, in 2005 he bet $1M that just buying and holding the stock of the top 500 US companies would be a better investment than whatever any professional investor would could come up with. One hedge fund guy took the bet, and lost.
fool.com/retirement/201…
Unsurprising. Over 15 years, 92% of funds perform worse than the market.

That happens because they're bad at beating the market, and because of taxes and fees. Which leads us to...
Issue #4: Fees and Commissions
Another relevant quote from Mr Hanna:
“[A customer who's invested following your advice] thinks he’s getting rich … but you and me, the brokers, we’re taking home cold hard cash via commissions m**********r!”

Here's the difference between investing with low vs. high fees: low fees gives you more than 2x the $!
Yet another reason to simply buy index funds yourself, or go through a roboadvisor.
Good index funds/ETFs charge <0.15%. It's called the expense ratio.

Bad funds, such as many mutual funds, charge much more. Look at this!!
There's no world in which you should pay weird upfront or sale fees. In fact, the only fee you should pay for a fund is the expense ratio, and it should nearly always be <0.50%. The best cost ~0.02%

So those are the fees you pay for buying the investments.
But there's also the Financial Advisor fees. And this is the main mistake of ppl who have financial advisors. They're giving them their retirement.

In the US, the average advisory fee for a $50k account is 1.18% in the US. It’s usually more elsewhere. And that’s just an average!
Remember the massive difference btw 0.3% fees & commissions and 2.5%? Yeah, on average half of that is eaten away by the financial advisors.
smartasset.com/financial-advi…
If they did some type of voodoo magic, that would be great. But on average they're BAD. From a Canadian paper:

Or put in another way: Financial Advisors aren't bad for you because they cheat you. Mainly it's because they're just bad.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
Issue #5: fairy tale retirement
All the retirement plans assume that you'll retire when you're 65, and you'll do that with 80% of your income.

Here's what happens if you do that.
Bank saver? Out of money before you're 70!
Even the investor is broke in her mid-90s
But retire at 70 and... magic!
So aim for that.
You can also aim for spending less than 80% of your pre-retirement income. Super healthy. Ideally both.
Also, be tax-efficient. It can have a dramatic impact in your assets. 401ks, IRAs, HSAs, FSAs... Look into them all!
Much more, with actionable advice, in the full article:
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/key-investme…

I'm publishing the follow-up this Thursday. Some of the topics:
The FIRE Movement
Negotiation
F**k Y** Money
When should you concentrate your bets?
Dollar-cost averaging
(cont.)
Cryptocurrencies, Fiat Currencies, MMT
Markovitz’ Efficient Frontier
Details of diversification
Mental biases of investing
Specifics of tax optimization
The accelerating impact of returns
And +
(That art. will be premium)

Want more? Follow me & sign up!
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

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More from @tomaspueyo

May 1
Two shocking events from last week unmasked eco-terrorists disguised as environmentalists:

1. The Philippines banned golden rice, condemning thousands of children to blindness and death
2. German Greens lied to closed nuclear plants

This is what happened and how to reverse it: Image
1. Golden Rice Ban
Golden Rice has added vitamin A over 100,000 children every year and turns blind over 100,000 more

Golden Rice has additional vitamin A, and eliminates that problem Image
But Greenpeace got a Filipino court to ban it. Why?
The court says "there's not enough evidence". But there is, proven by safety tests from countries like the US, Canada, and NZ. It is just like rice, except with more Vit A

So why do they say that?

reason.com/2024/04/25/gre…
Read 13 tweets
Apr 27
You think housing prices will keep going up because you've seen it all your life. But this is a historic anomaly that is likely to reverse soon: Prices might start shrinking in many places.

This thread is the case against investing in housing: Image
Our perception of real estate prices is extremely biased.
Most ppl alive today have only experienced them since WW2, but that's a completely anomalous period!

Prices before did not grow as much. Here are real prices for 14 countries
What happened?

Supply and demand
The last 80 years have seen a growth of housing demand never seen before. At the same time, supply has been shrinking consistently. These trends are all reverting now. Let's look at them in detail:
Read 24 tweets
Apr 23
Why do Jamaicans speak English, when most of its neighboring countries don’t?
Why was the pirate capital there?
Why is it underwater now?
Why did pirates drink rum?
Why are most Jamaicans black?

This map of shipping lanes today gives you a hint:
Jamaica is in the middle of all these shipping lanes, but isn't a major shipping hub today

This is not new: Back in Spanish colonial times, Jamaica was not in the main trade routes either Image
Spain's main goods were silver from Mexico and Peru and luxury goods from China
Spaniards gathered them in Panama, Portobello, Cartagena, and Veracruz
Ships arrived from Spain to Puerto Rico and left via Habana (Cuba)
Jamaica was not a main port
Why? Image
Read 28 tweets
Apr 3
This machine makes fuel from thin air
It's carbon neutral
And it does this at record-low costs
Energy and the environment will look completely different in 10 years
Here's why: 🧵 Image
The problem with fossil fuels today is not that we burn them, it's where they come from: They had been locked in the ground for millions of years and now they're back in the atmosphere. The pbm is the "fossil", not the "fuels"

If we make fuels out of thin air, we can burn them Image
How can we do it?

Natural gas is mostly methane (CH4)
You just need some energy to force some carbon (C) to bing to hydrogen (H)

Carbon can come from air (CO2)
Hydrogen can come from water (H2O)
The energy can come from the sun (solar panels)

That's what @TerraformIndies does Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 1
This video of the Rock of Gibraltar gives an intuition for why some areas of the world have deserts next to rainforests

What's happening here?
How can you use that to predict where there will be deserts or rainforests?🧵
Look at the map below: In some places, deserts and lush forests are side by side. Why?

The mountain chains between them Image
The effect is called the Rain Shadow:
• Air comes wet from the sea
• As it hits mountains, it goes up
• Higher altitudes are cooler, so the air cools
• That condenses water (like the droplets on you Coke glass)
• Rain falls
• Air is dry past the mountains Image
Read 21 tweets
Mar 8
Egyptian pyramids are not where they're supposed to be. Why?
Why is Cairo, the biggest African city, where it is today?
Alexandria?
Why do over 100M Egyptians live so densely clustered?
These questions all have the same answer. Look:
1st map: population density
2nd map: satellite
The "flower" is the inhabited part of Egypt, which is basically the NileImage
Image
It makes sense: outside of the Nile, Egypt is like the rest of the Sahara desert, an inhospitable hell for humans Image
Read 24 tweets

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