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Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
@jukka235
Aug 18, 2021 • 15 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Suomen epidemia 18.8.2021: tartuntojen määrä vähenee, mutta testien määrä vähenee yhtä paljon: positiivisten osuus on pysynyt paikallaan. Englannissa uusi variantti (AY.3) on ruvennut syrjäyttämään Deltaa.
1/x
Tänään THL ilmoitti 673 tartuntaa, ei poistanut yhtään, ja tunnettu raportoinnin viive kasvoi 32 tartunnalla. Muuttumattomalla viiveellä laskettu uusien tartuntojen määrä = 673+0+32=705 (punainen viiva).
2/x
Englannissa uusi variantti, AY.3, kasvaa nopeasti ja näyttää ruvenneen syrjäyttämään Deltaa (B.1.617.2). Suomen epidemia tulee noin 40-45 päivää Englannin epidemiaa jäljessä.
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Tässä hyvä yhteenveto tilanteessa Englannissa. AY.3 on Deltan alatyyppi (subtype).
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WHO on listannut AY.3:n Deltan alle.
5/x
web.archive.org/web/2021081818…
who.int/en/activities/…
Positiivisten osuudessa ei näy vastaavaa tartuntojen vähenemistä kuin THL:n ilmoittamissa tartunnoissa. Tässä on eliminoitu testauksen määrissä tapahtuneet muutokset.
6/x
THL ilmoitti tänään ja eilen runsaasti testejä (70000). Kuva ei ole muuttunut: testien määrä on vähentynyt.
7/x
Testauksen painotettu viive on kolme päivää. Kun näytteenotosta on kulunut neljä päivää, niin 90 prosenttia testeistä on raportoitu. Viimeinen 10 prosenttia vie sitten jo enemmän aikaa.
8/x
Jo toteutuneiden tartuntojen perusteella laskettu sairaanhoidon ennuste viittaa siihen, että sairaanhoidossa olevien määrä rupeaa vähenemään 4-5 päivän kuluttua. Seurataan tilannetta.
9/x
Tehohoidossa olevien määrä suhteessa 10 päivää aikaisempiin tartuntoihin on noussut nopeasti (musta viiva).
10/x
Altistumistapahtumien määrä on noussut koko epidemian huipputasolle. Baareissa tapahtuvat altistumiset vähenevät nopeasti. Altistustapahtumien määrä muualla (kaupat, koulut, harrastukset) kasvaa.
11/x
#altistumiset
Tässä altistuneiden henkilöiden määrä. Festareilla altistuneidenkin määrä pienenee. Baareissa altistuneiden määrä on pudonnut alle puoleen. Tarkat paikat kartalla: altistumiset.fi . @Tqwerty123a ja Tiimi ottavat vastaan tietoja.
12/x
#altistumiset
Kouluissa ja päiväkodeissa tapahtuvien altistumisten määrä nousee voimakkaasti. Tällä vauhdilla noin kahden viikon päästä ollaan samalla tasolla kuin maalis- ja huhtikuussa pahimmillaan.
13/x
#altistumiset
Kouluissa tapahtuneiden altistumistapahtumien kappalemäärä on viiden koulupäivän aikana (10.-16.8.) noussut samalle tasolle kuin viime maaliskuun huipun aikana. Suunta on edelleen ylöspäin. Alle 12-vuotiaita ei ole rokotettu lainkaan.
14/x
Pirkanmaalla baareissa tapahtuvat altistumiset ovat vähentyneet yli 80 prosenttia. Sen seurauksena tartuntojen määrä on tulossa alas.
Pirkanmaan altistumiset kartalla: altistumiset.fi . @Tqwerty123a ja Tiimi ottavat vastaan tietoja.
15/x
#altistumiset

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More from @jukka235

Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 14
This is an important moment.

After more than five years of silence, mainstream media has begun to acknowledge that C19 can harm T cells, and to discuss the consequences that follow. @fitterhappierAJ was one of the first, if not the first, to talk about this.
1/x
Dr. Leonardi has provided a significant amount of direction for me. In particular, he has been interviewed in some excellent articles that have withstood the test of time. Here is one of them.
2/x
thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/…
We have seen it all.
- in 2020, they said that our health systems are so robust that this disease wouldn't come here
- then they wanted them infected. C19 was de facto allowed to spread in schools. Only a small fraction of <12 year olds received ...
3/x
koronatilastot.fi/fi/rokotukset/Image
Read 8 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 9
Something is causing injuries among young children.
1/x Image
Something changed in 2022. Before that, the numbers were generally falling. Wonder what it could be.
2/x Image
After 2022, 1-6 year olds have overtaken a total of three other age groups (50-64, 15-24 and 65-74 year olds), and are now clearly above the total population average. All injuries (S00-S99).
3/x Image
Read 6 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 9
Developmental delays and disorders (F80-F89).
1/x Image
Between 2020 and 2025e, the number of patients with developmental delay or disorder diagnoses grew at an average annual rate of 21.6% (10x in 11.8 years). The fastest patient growth was seen in pervasive developmental disorders, incl. autism and Asperger syndrome (F84).
2/x Image
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Among total population, number of patients with developmental delay or disorder diagnoses is up 2.6 times since 2020. All disorders are showing continued significant patient growth.
3/x Image
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Read 11 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Dec 23, 2025
Finland's epidemic 23 Dec 2025: amount of virus in wastewater appears to have risen above the first Omicron wave. Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron; repeated waves are showing no diminishing.
1/x Image
Post-Omicron baseline is permanently higher than pre-Omicron
- before late 2021, levels were mostly 10³–10⁴.
- from 2022 onward, even troughs sit around 10⁵, or 10-100x higher
- C19 has become endemic
- constant background transmission, even outside waves
2/x Image
Repeated large waves in 2023–2024, not diminishing. Notable peaks:
- Apr 2023
- Nov 2023 (highest for the entire pandemic)
- Dec 2024

These peaks are:
- comparable to or higher than Omicron 2022
- evidence against a simple “each wave gets smaller” narrative
3/x Image
Read 21 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 30, 2025
Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities. For 1-6 year olds,
- the condition showing largest increase since 2022 is Down's syndrome (Q90)
- the condition showing fastest growth since 2022 is Congenital malformations of great arteries (Q25)
1/x Image
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1-6 year olds / chromosomal abnormalities (Q90-Q99).
- Down's syndrome (Q90): average patient growth (2022-2025e) 14% per year = 10x in 18 years)
- fastest growing condition: other sex chromosome abnormalities, male phenotype (Q98), up 150% in 2025e
2/x Image
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<1 year olds / chromosomal abnormalities (Q90-Q99):
- Down's syndrome (Q90) is the most frequent diagnosis
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Read 9 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Nov 11, 2025
Intellectual disabilities (F70-F79): <1 year olds are leading in terms of y/y growth. Ten percent of <1 year olds will have an intellectual disability diagnosis in 14 year's time (2039), if current growth rates continue.
1/x Image
The rise in intellectual disability among <1 year olds also shows in number of diagnoses: up roughly 11 times in 4 years. Also note the rise among 1-6 year olds.
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7-14 and 15-24 year olds are showing the highest levels of intellectual disability. If current growth rates continue, 5 percent of 7-14 and 15-24 year olds will have an intellectual disability diagnosis by 2048 (24 years from now).
3/x Image
Read 6 tweets

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