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Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
@jukka235
Aug 18, 2021 • 15 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Suomen epidemia 18.8.2021: tartuntojen määrä vähenee, mutta testien määrä vähenee yhtä paljon: positiivisten osuus on pysynyt paikallaan. Englannissa uusi variantti (AY.3) on ruvennut syrjäyttämään Deltaa.
1/x
Tänään THL ilmoitti 673 tartuntaa, ei poistanut yhtään, ja tunnettu raportoinnin viive kasvoi 32 tartunnalla. Muuttumattomalla viiveellä laskettu uusien tartuntojen määrä = 673+0+32=705 (punainen viiva).
2/x
Englannissa uusi variantti, AY.3, kasvaa nopeasti ja näyttää ruvenneen syrjäyttämään Deltaa (B.1.617.2). Suomen epidemia tulee noin 40-45 päivää Englannin epidemiaa jäljessä.
3/x
Tässä hyvä yhteenveto tilanteessa Englannissa. AY.3 on Deltan alatyyppi (subtype).
4/x
WHO on listannut AY.3:n Deltan alle.
5/x
web.archive.org/web/2021081818…
who.int/en/activities/…
Positiivisten osuudessa ei näy vastaavaa tartuntojen vähenemistä kuin THL:n ilmoittamissa tartunnoissa. Tässä on eliminoitu testauksen määrissä tapahtuneet muutokset.
6/x
THL ilmoitti tänään ja eilen runsaasti testejä (70000). Kuva ei ole muuttunut: testien määrä on vähentynyt.
7/x
Testauksen painotettu viive on kolme päivää. Kun näytteenotosta on kulunut neljä päivää, niin 90 prosenttia testeistä on raportoitu. Viimeinen 10 prosenttia vie sitten jo enemmän aikaa.
8/x
Jo toteutuneiden tartuntojen perusteella laskettu sairaanhoidon ennuste viittaa siihen, että sairaanhoidossa olevien määrä rupeaa vähenemään 4-5 päivän kuluttua. Seurataan tilannetta.
9/x
Tehohoidossa olevien määrä suhteessa 10 päivää aikaisempiin tartuntoihin on noussut nopeasti (musta viiva).
10/x
Altistumistapahtumien määrä on noussut koko epidemian huipputasolle. Baareissa tapahtuvat altistumiset vähenevät nopeasti. Altistustapahtumien määrä muualla (kaupat, koulut, harrastukset) kasvaa.
11/x
#altistumiset
Tässä altistuneiden henkilöiden määrä. Festareilla altistuneidenkin määrä pienenee. Baareissa altistuneiden määrä on pudonnut alle puoleen. Tarkat paikat kartalla: altistumiset.fi . @Tqwerty123a ja Tiimi ottavat vastaan tietoja.
12/x
#altistumiset
Kouluissa ja päiväkodeissa tapahtuvien altistumisten määrä nousee voimakkaasti. Tällä vauhdilla noin kahden viikon päästä ollaan samalla tasolla kuin maalis- ja huhtikuussa pahimmillaan.
13/x
#altistumiset
Kouluissa tapahtuneiden altistumistapahtumien kappalemäärä on viiden koulupäivän aikana (10.-16.8.) noussut samalle tasolle kuin viime maaliskuun huipun aikana. Suunta on edelleen ylöspäin. Alle 12-vuotiaita ei ole rokotettu lainkaan.
14/x
Pirkanmaalla baareissa tapahtuvat altistumiset ovat vähentyneet yli 80 prosenttia. Sen seurauksena tartuntojen määrä on tulossa alas.
Pirkanmaan altistumiset kartalla: altistumiset.fi . @Tqwerty123a ja Tiimi ottavat vastaan tietoja.
15/x
#altistumiset

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More from @jukka235

Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 13
Mortality in Sweden: Are the causes of death that are increasing among 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 year olds also rising in older age groups?

Let's find out.
1/x Image
These causes collectively represent all causes of death that are rising among 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 year olds. Among 0-4 year olds, their average growth rate (2019-2024) is 13.5%.
2/x Image
Among 5-9 year olds the average annual growth rate (2019-2024) is 33.8 percent (10-fold in 7.9 years if this growth rate continues).
3/x Image
Read 19 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 9
Mortality of children aged 0-4 in Sweden.
1/x Image
Among 0-4 year olds, the 19 causes of death with the highest growth (2004 compared with the 1997-2019 average) have increased since 2019 at an average rate of 51% per year.
2/x Image
Among 0-4 year olds, adding the next 18 causes brings the total to the top 37 fastest growing causes of death. Together, these have increased since 2019 at an average rate of 24.6% per year, compared with just 0.6% per year during 1997-2019.
3/x Image
Read 6 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Feb 8
Mortality of 10-14 year olds in Sweden.
1/x Image
Here are the 19 leading causes of death among 10-14 year olds, ranked by their 2024 incidence compared to the 1997-2019 average. Together, they account for 35% of all deaths in 2024.
2/x Image
Here are the next 18 diseases. Combined, these causes represent 60% of all deaths in 2024, and have an average growth rate of 33.7% per year between 2019 and 2024 (10 times in 7.9 years).
3/x Image
Read 8 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 15
Diseases of the nervous system (G00-G99).
1/x Image
Between 2020 and 2025e, patient growth is nearly uniform across all age groups above one year of age. However, growth among those aged 1-64 clearly exceeds that observed in older age groups.
2/x Image
Situation by disease group (nervous system diseases G00-G99):
- fastest growth (2020–2025e): Other disorders of the nervous system (G90–G99), 15.9% average annual growth
- fastest growth (2024-2025e): Inflammatory diseases of the central nervous system (G00–G09), 19.7%
3/x Image
Read 14 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 14
This is an important moment.

After more than five years of silence, mainstream media has begun to acknowledge that C19 can harm T cells, and to discuss the consequences that follow. @fitterhappierAJ was one of the first, if not the first, to talk about this.
1/x
Dr. Leonardi has provided a significant amount of direction for me. In particular, he has been interviewed in some excellent articles that have withstood the test of time. Here is one of them.
2/x
thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/…
We have seen it all.
- in 2020, they said that our health systems are so robust that this disease wouldn't come here
- then they wanted them infected. C19 was de facto allowed to spread in schools. Only a small fraction of <12 year olds received ...
3/x
koronatilastot.fi/fi/rokotukset/Image
Read 8 tweets
Ilkka Rauvola Profile picture
Jan 9
Something is causing injuries among young children.
1/x Image
Something changed in 2022. Before that, the numbers were generally falling. Wonder what it could be.
2/x Image
After 2022, 1-6 year olds have overtaken a total of three other age groups (50-64, 15-24 and 65-74 year olds), and are now clearly above the total population average. All injuries (S00-S99).
3/x Image
Read 6 tweets

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