🏴INDEPENDENCE...A THREAD🏴
1/5
This article from @JamesDavidGriff, who is working with us on WES 2021, takes a detailed look at which voters currently support Welsh independence...vital reading for anyone promoting the idea or arguing against it!
welshelectionstudycymru.wordpress.com/2021/08/19/sle…
1/5
This article from @JamesDavidGriff, who is working with us on WES 2021, takes a detailed look at which voters currently support Welsh independence...vital reading for anyone promoting the idea or arguing against it!
welshelectionstudycymru.wordpress.com/2021/08/19/sle…
2/5
A *majority* of current Welsh indy supporters are converts to the cause: people who have changed their minds since 2016.
They are usually Remain voters, and have a slightly more British identity (whilst still feeling strongly Welsh) than 'old school' indy supporters.
A *majority* of current Welsh indy supporters are converts to the cause: people who have changed their minds since 2016.
They are usually Remain voters, and have a slightly more British identity (whilst still feeling strongly Welsh) than 'old school' indy supporters.
3/5
However, “a shift towards independence does not mean that an individual will support a party that pursues this goal”.
A clear plurality of pro-indy converts (the majority group of indy supporters) voted for Welsh Labour in 2021.
However, “a shift towards independence does not mean that an individual will support a party that pursues this goal”.
A clear plurality of pro-indy converts (the majority group of indy supporters) voted for Welsh Labour in 2021.
4/5
Why would new independence supporters vote for a unionist party?
We know from initial WES 2021 analysis that amongst converts to independence, support for indy is 'soft' and from opinion polls that other issues were salient/important to voters.
Why would new independence supporters vote for a unionist party?
We know from initial WES 2021 analysis that amongst converts to independence, support for indy is 'soft' and from opinion polls that other issues were salient/important to voters.
5/5
Conclusion below. Anti-Brexit sentiment a key driver of indy support (though beware of divisions). Further understanding needed of the reasons for indy support not leading to votes for pro-independence parties. But the idea is now up for debate.
Diolch @JamesDavidGriff!
Conclusion below. Anti-Brexit sentiment a key driver of indy support (though beware of divisions). Further understanding needed of the reasons for indy support not leading to votes for pro-independence parties. But the idea is now up for debate.
Diolch @JamesDavidGriff!
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