After yesterday, we now landed on changes in extremes🌡️⛈️🥵🧺!
And although I don't like to pick favorites, I do like this visual very much.
Too big for a single tweet, this one shows how hot extremes over land change compared to when our great-grandparents were alive. (2/n)
Did you notice in the previous figure: a heat extreme that our great-grandparents would have experienced once in their lifetime, will occur about once every 4 years in a 2°C warmer world. It will be the norm in a 4°C warmer world.
I like the clarity of this figure! :)
(3/n)
The second part of the figure shows similar changes for extreme precipitation and its antipode, drought.
Less explicit as for heat extremes, but still impressive (4/n)
Figure SPM.7 is also a beauty with a powerful message.
Land and ocean carbon sinks take up a smaller proportion of CO2 emissions when we emit more CO2.
(5/n)
As long as we increase emissions, the land and oceans will take up more CO2. This sounds like good news, but the bad news is in the donuts at the bottom that show that in relative terms sinks become weaker the more CO2 we emit and more CO2 remains in the atmosphere. (6/n)
The 8th figure then shows how components of our planet can respond very differently to global warming (panel a).
(7/n)
Arctic sea ice and ocean acidification (panels b and c) move almost in lock step with global warming and CO2 concentrations.
Global sea level rise is sluggish to respond (panel d) and continues to change for centuries once we give it a global warming push (panel e). (8/n)
The second-to-last figure shows that climate change as it can be experienced by you and me (that is, extreme heat, coastal erosion, river flooding, ... there's a long list) are projected to change in all regions around the globe.
And finally, last but not least, the 10th figure of the @IPCC_CH SPM tells us that every tonne of CO2 emissions adds to global warming.
It did so in the past (grey features on the left)
It will do so in the future (coloured ranges on the right)
(10/n)
How successful we will be in bringing global greenhouse gas emissions down by 2050 will determine whether we keep warming to 1.5°C or will then already suffer from a 2.5°C warmer planet.
(end)
As usual, if you want to read more: check out the @IPCC_CH AR6 WG1 report website
Breaking news on #CO2 📢🔥🌍
The new @gcarbonproject emissions numbers are out with an analysis by @CarbonBrief
What do the numbers tell us?
Spoiler alert: they are quite the party pooper for prospects of global peaking 🥳💩😢 (1)
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and the production of cement increased yet another 1.1% since 2022, reaching their highest level yet. 36.8 billion tons of CO2 in 2023!
Total CO2 emissions that include land use increased by ca. 0.5%, a tie with the 2019 record (2)
Any positive news here?
Land-use CO2 emissions have been declining slightly, but not at a pace that would be consistent with pathways meeting the Paris Agreement 1.5C ambition.
And their estimates are still accompanied by large scientific uncertainty. (3)
The latest @IPCC_CH mitigation report shows different ways in which warming can be kept to (close to) 1.5°C.
See the light-blue range in the figure below which shows global GHG emissions. (2)
Emissions also decline for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) individually, but to different levels. Only CO2 reaches net zero and goes net negative. (3)
Hot off the press - new climate research 🚨🌍🔥
Will warming stop once we reach net zero CO2 emissions?
Open-access publication @FrontiersIn assessing what we know and don't know about whether warming will stop once net zero CO2 emissions are reached. /1 frontiersin.org/journals/scien…
With #NetZero targets established as key components of international and national climate policy, it becomes ever more pertinent to closely understand what reaching net-zero emissions will deliver and what it doesn't. /2
That's why we, with an international team of scientists, take a deep look at the 'zero emissions commitment' or ZEC. In other words, how much warming (or cooling) can be expected once global emissions are brought down to zero.
For various reasons, we focus our effort on CO2. /3
The Advisory Board recommends the EU to take up a 2040 emissions reduction target of 90–95% compared to 1990 to keep the EU’s GHG budget to within 11 to 14 Gt CO2e between 2030 and 2050. #2040ClimateTarget#GreenhouseGasEmissionsBudget
Where do these numbers come from?
2/n
To arrive at this #2040ClimateTarget advice, the @esabcc_eu implemented its earlier recommendation to the @EU_Commission to follow an approach that is systematic, transparent and guided by EU values, when preparing its EU 2040 climate target proposal. 4/n
In 2021, the European Climate Law created the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change @esabcc_eu and tasked it to inform the EU’s #2040ClimateTarget and 2030-2050 greenhouse gas (GHG) budget.
Today, @esabcc_eu published its advice.
Here’s the short version 🧵1/n
The Advisory Board recommends the @EU_Commission to take up:
a 2040 emissions reduction target of 90–95% compared to 1990
to keep the EU’s GHG budget to within 11 to 14 Gt CO2e between 2030 and 2050.
2/n
This advice is based on an assessment of what would be both a fair and a feasible emissions reduction contribution of the EU to the global challenge of keeping warming to 1.5°C. 3/n
Countries’ new and updated pledges (NDCs) submitted since COP26 reduce projected global GHG emissions in 2030 by only 0.5 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) compared with projections based on pledges at the time of COP26.
Some pledges result in even higher emissions /2
Countries are off track to achieve even the globally highly insufficient NDCs. Global GHG emissions in 2030 based on current policies are estimated at 58 GtCO2e. The implementation gap in 2030 between policies and NDCs is about 3 to 6 GtCO2e. /3