Joeri Rogelj Profile picture
Aug 19, 2021 12 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Visuals in the latest #IPCCReport are a marvel I cannot stop talking about!

Here's part 2 of my overview of @IPCC_CH AR6 SPM visuals.

Kudos once again to @angelamorelli @tomhal99 @jordanharold and @MelichatGo for helping to visualize our insights (1/n)
After yesterday, we now landed on changes in extremes🌡️⛈️🥵🧺!

And although I don't like to pick favorites, I do like this visual very much.

Too big for a single tweet, this one shows how hot extremes over land change compared to when our great-grandparents were alive. (2/n)
Did you notice in the previous figure: a heat extreme that our great-grandparents would have experienced once in their lifetime, will occur about once every 4 years in a 2°C warmer world. It will be the norm in a 4°C warmer world.

I like the clarity of this figure! :)
(3/n)
The second part of the figure shows similar changes for extreme precipitation and its antipode, drought.

Less explicit as for heat extremes, but still impressive (4/n)
Figure SPM.7 is also a beauty with a powerful message.

Land and ocean carbon sinks take up a smaller proportion of CO2 emissions when we emit more CO2.

(5/n)
As long as we increase emissions, the land and oceans will take up more CO2. This sounds like good news, but the bad news is in the donuts at the bottom that show that in relative terms sinks become weaker the more CO2 we emit and more CO2 remains in the atmosphere. (6/n)
The 8th figure then shows how components of our planet can respond very differently to global warming (panel a).

(7/n)
Arctic sea ice and ocean acidification (panels b and c) move almost in lock step with global warming and CO2 concentrations.

Global sea level rise is sluggish to respond (panel d) and continues to change for centuries once we give it a global warming push (panel e). (8/n)
The second-to-last figure shows that climate change as it can be experienced by you and me (that is, extreme heat, coastal erosion, river flooding, ... there's a long list) are projected to change in all regions around the globe.

There no place to hide from #GlobalWarming

(9/n)
And finally, last but not least, the 10th figure of the @IPCC_CH SPM tells us that every tonne of CO2 emissions adds to global warming.

It did so in the past (grey features on the left)
It will do so in the future (coloured ranges on the right)

(10/n)
How successful we will be in bringing global greenhouse gas emissions down by 2050 will determine whether we keep warming to 1.5°C or will then already suffer from a 2.5°C warmer planet.

(end)
As usual, if you want to read more: check out the @IPCC_CH AR6 WG1 report website

ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

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More from @JoeriRogelj

Oct 24
Another year, another climate gap. 🌍🔥🌡️

It's the 15th time I joined the lead author team of the @UNEP #Emissionsgap report.

How high are global emissions?
What have countries pledged?
And is this all aligned with the Paris Agreement?

Let’s dig in with a 🧵/1 Image
Launched today by @andersen_inger, the @UNEP #emissionsgap report once again looks at the state of play of international climate action. 🌍🔥🌡️🇺🇳

This year's title: No more hot air … please!

Let's have a look at what's inside /2 Image
Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2023 amounted to 57.1 billion tons of CO2-equivalent emissions (GtCO2e)
A 1.3 percent increase from 2022. /3 Image
Read 25 tweets
Aug 2
We recently saw the 1st year-long period of global temperatures being 1.5C higher than during preindustrial times.

What does this mean for global warming?
What does this mean for the 1.5C goal?

🧵/1
Media have reported extensively on the exceptional global temperatures of the last year.

This is deeply worrying, but how does it relate to global warming, and what does it mean for the Paris Agreement's 1.5C goal?

@MarkPoynting /2bbc.co.uk/news/science-e…
The Paris Agreement sets a global goal of "holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels" /3 unfccc.int/files/meetings…
Image
Read 16 tweets
Jun 4
With every year passing global warming progresses. 🌍🔥

@IPCC_CH reports provide the most authoritative climate assessments but only in 5-7 year intervals.

To fill this gap over 50 scientist annually update key indicators of global climate change.

Latest update out now, a🧵
In 2021, the @IPCC_CH climate report assessed the state of the climate system and the “unequivocal” role of humans in changing it.
Since then, CO2 emissions and global warming have continued and up-to-date and trustworthy climate information is more important than ever A graphic showing a map of land, including imagery of boats, a farm, an aeroplane, a factory and a city in the centre with 3 rectangle text boxes below it. White title reads: Why do we need the Indicators of Global Climate Change? The text boxes read: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports on climate system indicators every 5-10 years, Given how rapidly the climate system is changing and the need for governments and policymakers to make decisions informed by the latest science to avoid the worst impacts is more vital than ever, This group of scientists has come togethe...
50 international scientists are filling this gap and have now published their second annual Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report, providing updates on how human activity is impacting the climate system. A graphic showing a map of land, including imagery of boats, a farm, an aeroplane, a factory and a city in the centre with 4 rectangle text boxes below it. White title reads: What are the Indicators of Global Climate Change? The text boxes read: An annual peer-reviewed update of key climate indicators (with globe icon), developed by an international team of over 50 scientists (3 people icon), built on established Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies (open book icon), full paper is available at Earth System Science Data (ESSD) (paperwork icon).
Read 11 tweets
Dec 5, 2023
Breaking news on #CO2 📢🔥🌍
The new @gcarbonproject emissions numbers are out with an analysis by @CarbonBrief

What do the numbers tell us?
Spoiler alert: they are quite the party pooper for prospects of global peaking 🥳💩😢 (1)
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and the production of cement increased yet another 1.1% since 2022, reaching their highest level yet.
36.8 billion tons of CO2 in 2023!

Total CO2 emissions that include land use increased by ca. 0.5%, a tie with the 2019 record (2) Image
Any positive news here?
Land-use CO2 emissions have been declining slightly, but not at a pace that would be consistent with pathways meeting the Paris Agreement 1.5C ambition.
And their estimates are still accompanied by large scientific uncertainty. (3) Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 4, 2023
Two quotes by two scientists have caused a bit of confusion. 👇

I am one of them.
So let me explain what I'm referring to here. (1) @KarlMathiesen
The latest @IPCC_CH mitigation report shows different ways in which warming can be kept to (close to) 1.5°C.
See the light-blue range in the figure below which shows global GHG emissions. (2) Image
Emissions also decline for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) individually, but to different levels. Only CO2 reaches net zero and goes net negative. (3)
Image
Image
Read 18 tweets
Nov 14, 2023
Hot off the press - new climate research 🚨🌍🔥
Will warming stop once we reach net zero CO2 emissions?

Open-access publication @FrontiersIn assessing what we know and don't know about whether warming will stop once net zero CO2 emissions are reached. /1
frontiersin.org/journals/scien…
With #NetZero targets established as key components of international and national climate policy, it becomes ever more pertinent to closely understand what reaching net-zero emissions will deliver and what it doesn't. /2

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
That's why we, with an international team of scientists, take a deep look at the 'zero emissions commitment' or ZEC. In other words, how much warming (or cooling) can be expected once global emissions are brought down to zero.

For various reasons, we focus our effort on CO2. /3
Read 18 tweets

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