In 2021, the European Climate Law created the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change @esabcc_eu and tasked it to inform the EU’s #2040ClimateTarget and 2030-2050 greenhouse gas (GHG) budget.
Today, @esabcc_eu published its advice.
Here’s the short version 🧵1/n
The Advisory Board recommends the @EU_Commission to take up:
a 2040 emissions reduction target of 90–95% compared to 1990
to keep the EU’s GHG budget to within 11 to 14 Gt CO2e between 2030 and 2050.
Oct 27, 2022 • 24 tweets • 11 min read
Where are global emissions heading and where should they be going to keep #globalwarming well below 2C and 1.5C?
but caution, not much good news ahead 🧵/1
Countries’ new and updated pledges (NDCs) submitted since COP26 reduce projected global GHG emissions in 2030 by only 0.5 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) compared with projections based on pledges at the time of COP26.
Some pledges result in even higher emissions /2
Feb 7, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Excellent conversation going on about how media messaging following the @IPCC_CH 1.5 report sating we have "12 years left" until [your favorite climate pandemonium term] has been a disservice to science communication, and is damaging to date 👇
As one of the coordinating authors of the report I can only wholeheartedly agree with @bobkopp@PFriedling@theresphysics and others that this is a dangerous misrepresentation of the report's assessment and messages.
Let me explain why
Nov 30, 2021 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Two years ago - we published a new scenario logic to avoid risky and unfair climate change scenarios in @Nature.
Yesterday, two new studies in @NatureClimate apply this logic and find that avoiding overshoot is the right thing to do both to reduce risks and overall costs.
Our initial @Nature study highlighted that focussing on a target in 2100 and not caring about what happens until then results in scenarios that suggest the best way to meet a target is to plan to first miss it.
#COP26 is concluding after two years of work with some important decisions.
Some highlights of those areas I have followed most closely: 1) science 2) increased ambition 3) the Paris Rulebook
Some quick reflections (1/n)
For the first time ever, scientific evidence is included as a key framing of the various COP decisions. This is historic and includes strong messages on the scientific requirements as identified by @IPCC_CH to keep warming to 1.5C.
Nov 10, 2021 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
New #COP26 analysis: 🚨🌡️🌍
Is COP26 on track to keep 1.5°C alive?
Here I connect the dots between findings of the most recent scientific reports and look at what current pledges mean for carbon budgets limiting warming to 1.5C
Many things but picking three: 1) focus on reductions then removals (& separate them out) 2) justify how it is fair and adequate 3) have a clear plan showing how reductions are achieved in the near term (1/n) bbc.com/future/article…@BBC_Future
Together with @CFyson from @climateactiontr and @katecullen_ we comment on how #NetZero targets can help, but also on how there is a series of boxes to be ticked by before any #NetZero target becomes a solid and ambitious contribution to tackling the #ClimateCrisis. (2/n)
Oct 26, 2021 • 15 tweets • 10 min read
The Heat is On🔥🌍
A world of climate promises not yet delivered
And although I don't like to pick favorites, I do like this visual very much.
Too big for a single tweet, this one shows how hot extremes over land change compared to when our great-grandparents were alive. (2/n)
Aug 18, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
After the first bang of the @IPCC_CH AR6 report, it's time to look at my favorite part of the report:
visuals in the SPM.
It was a privilege to work with a team of #dataviz and information design experts @angelamorelli@tomhal99@jordanharold on these visuals
The first visual shows us that human influence has warmed the climate at a rate unprecedented in at least 2000 years.
I really like how it contrasts the climate our societies were used to during their development with the evidence that we are responsible.
Aug 9, 2021 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
Carbon budgets tell us how much CO2 we can still emit while keeping warming below specific limits.
The latest @IPCC_CH report provides updated estimates of these budgets.
Here’s an insider's view with a deep dive looking at how they have changed since previous reports. (1/n)
I have been involved in the estimation of carbon budgets since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in early 2010s.
And since the first IPCC estimates published in 2013, we have learned a lot and have gotten much better at estimating remaining carbon budgets. (2/n)
May 27, 2021 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
EXPLAINER: new projections for the next 5 years by @metoffice and @WMO indicate that there's a high chance that one of these years is 1.5°C warmer than average preindustrial levels.
Modelling choices underpinning the pathway are well argued, reliance on speculative technologies is limited, and the carbon budget is in line with the most ambitious pathways available in the literature (2/n)
Mar 31, 2021 • 14 tweets • 8 min read
Today's news from Australia's @Science_Academy latest climate report: "limiting climate change to 1.5°C is now virtually impossible"
I'm quite confused by their finding & scientific evidence backing it up is questionable at best. #auspol
#NetZero targets are key benchmarks towards a world where we avoid the worst of climate change. But if defined vaguely, they leave a lot of wiggle room and can compromise achievement of the #ParisAgreement
We provide guidelines to avoid this.
Mar 16, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
"Net-zero emissions targets are vague: three ways to fix"
In a new @Nature piece we explain how countries & companies can set rigorous, fair and transparent net-zero targets.
#COVID19 recovery stimulus dwarfs green energy investment needs for a 1.5°C-compatible world
A thread on our new scientific analysis published in @ScienceMagazine
In the wake of the economic crisis caused by the #COVID19 pandemic, governments have pledged unprecedented amounts of economic recovery and stimulus.
We tally up all pledges and compare them to what we would need to transform the global energy system to #netzero by 2050 (2/n)
Sep 19, 2019 • 11 tweets • 9 min read
THREAD: In a new study in @nature we present a way to avoid the bias that burdens future generations and the risky strategies that current #climate change mitigation pathways suffer from.