I still see many people still calling crypto a bubble and thus it is unsustainable. I mean the price rise looks pretty crazy...
The same with tech stocks and their "overvaluation"....
I remember personally saying the same about Amazon, pretty much since inception.
But I didn't get it was not a discounted cash flow business but a future potential cash flow business - a network effect stock valued on Metcalfe's Law. And thus it was exponential in nature and required log chart to understand....one bubble 2000, the rest normal...
And the NDX is the same - one bubble in 2000 and the rest, normal and correctly priced.
And Bitcoin is the same...one bubble in 2013 and a mild one.
It's a new business model - network effects. It forces us to re-think valuation and 30 years of outperformance over time suggests we cant ignore it and write these trends off as bubbles. But they are volatile and that is ok as there is no reward without risk.
And that is all without using one chart of the Fed balance sheet as a denominator 😜
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Let's talk about the Crypto Waiting Room... many key part of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch. Let's look at a few (you will have yours too...)
Total3 - Ex- BTC and ETH...ready to launch from the waiting room. 1/ ...
OTHERS (Outside of Top 10... purest form of Alts season where all shit rises). Still in the waiting room but longer to launch...
Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast and M2 is headed back to new highs. This is just a regular correction... 1/
We had the exact same correction in 2017 caused by the same reaction to Trump policies (higher dollar and higher rates which then reversed). 2/
Over time, we just keep climbing the log regression channel. Whether we stay at the man (red) or climb above it by another standard deviation or two remains to be seen as the cycle develops.
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:
1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks.
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro.
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time.