Raoul Pal Profile picture
Aug 20, 2021 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I still see many people still calling crypto a bubble and thus it is unsustainable. I mean the price rise looks pretty crazy...
The same with tech stocks and their "overvaluation"....
I remember personally saying the same about Amazon, pretty much since inception.
But I didn't get it was not a discounted cash flow business but a future potential cash flow business - a network effect stock valued on Metcalfe's Law. And thus it was exponential in nature and required log chart to understand....one bubble 2000, the rest normal...
And the NDX is the same - one bubble in 2000 and the rest, normal and correctly priced.
And Bitcoin is the same...one bubble in 2013 and a mild one.
It's a new business model - network effects. It forces us to re-think valuation and 30 years of outperformance over time suggests we cant ignore it and write these trends off as bubbles. But they are volatile and that is ok as there is no reward without risk.
And that is all without using one chart of the Fed balance sheet as a denominator 😜

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More from @RaoulGMI

Nov 10
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.

Here is $DOGE leading the breakout... 1/ Image
Here is $WIF about to break out... Image
And Smoking Chicken Fish will follow suit.. $SCF Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:

1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks. Image
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro. Image
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 29
With $BTC well over $70k... Im looking for the final confirmations from some others. $SOL over $185... 1/ Image
$SUI is breaking its consolidation now and should be headed to new ATH's Image
And $DOGE is within sniffing distance... the dog can smell the ripening fruit. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 17
$SUI is actiing like it is going to be one of the key Chosen Ones of the major new chains, if not THE Chosen One...

The chart has broken out of the inverse head and shoulders, which is an important first step. 1/Image
But more importantly, it has broen the downtrend vs $SOL (and all the top 20 tokens). Its relative strength in a sideways market is worth paying attention to.Image
But SUI is still in its early innings and the proof will have to be in successful appplications that scale built on top of the tech stack.

TVL is a small part of this and the Circle announcement is another good step. Gaming is a potential big breakout but still too early...
Read 7 tweets
Aug 8
Sui $SUI is the groundbreaking ultra-fast L1, super efficient, full blockchain ecosystem that came out of Meta's Diem project.

The idea is that it is built for the scale of 4 billion people... i.e turning Web2 > Web3 1/
I have been looking for signs of the next big L1 mover by looking at the relative charts of many compared to each other and have mentioned this methodology on many podcasts....
$SUI is starting to look very interesting from a price perspective, although still early and unconfirmed, it is showing signs of breaking out against most tokens.

This is SUI/USD... Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 29
Macro Summer in beginning to take hold and should last at least for the rest of 2024 and into 2025.

2 yr yields have formed a large top with a potential objective to 2.5% 1/ Image
The NDX has probably completed it's healthy correction... Image
Its perfect timing during election years... Image
Read 8 tweets

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