Thread by @_johnbye

The Event Research Programme report is finally out, with eye opening data on covid rates amongst those watching the Euros Final at Wembley on July 11.

2,295 attendees may have been infectious at the time of the game, and 3,404 may have caught it there.

gov.uk/government/new…

That's out of an official attendance of about 75,000 people (including ticket holders and staff).

But with chaotic scenes outside the stadium and some "fans" breaking through security, the total number in or around Wembley stadium will have been higher.

google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.…

Still, if we take those figures at face value, up to 3% of people attending the game had covid at the time, and another 4.5% caught it around the time of the match.

Community prevalence was 1% - 1.4% in the weeks before and after the game, according to the ONS Infection Survey.

So despite a (poorly enforced) requirement to be fully vaccinated or have a recent negative test result to attend, prevalence in the crowd might have been HIGHER than in the general population.

Even if we assume most people attending were young.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

While the crowd size will have been underestimated, the same will be true for the number of infections.

This was based on people who filled out a contact tracing form and reported attending the event, based on giving the event's date, location AND a relevant keyword.

It also only counts English fans in the infections data, but everyone in the attendance data. So thousands of foreign fans at the game won't be tracked.

And unlike earlier Scottish data, it doesn't look at fans watching the game in pubs and fan zones.

https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1410219767206748161?s=19

In stark contrast, the British Grand Prix a week later identified only 343 attendees (0.1%) likely to have been infectious that weekend, and 242 more likely to have caught the virus there.

Which seems extraordinarily low.

Correction: Euros final attendance is listed as 71,000 (adding up ticketed and unticketed guests, staff and contractors), not 75,000.

So that means up to 3.2% are likely to have already had the virus when they went to the match, and another 4.8% may have caught it at the match.

The data can be found here:
gov.uk/government/pub…

The press release is here:
gov.uk/government/new…