I think it's entirely possible that things will settle down in Afghanistan next week, and the anxiety and criticism of Biden will give way to a "Well, not one died, everything's always rough at the start" consensus. Folks going all in on "This is Biden's legacy"are too confident
I also think it's possible that actually this looks like a disaster because it is a disaster. People who are very certain that the critics are overreacting are also much too confident. This could definitely get worse as well as better.
I lean towards "better" rather than "worse" but with a hefty dose of "predictions are hard, especially about the future". Economy's more urbanized than 1996 making transition trickier, especially now banks are out of money. Operational control of troops may not be Priority 1.
People getting mad at me because "We don't know" sounds banal, but at least it's true, while "We do know" when we actually don't is wrong. And there are many people on Twtter who appear to need a reminder that confidence is no guarantee of correctness!
In general, banal cliches are highly underrated. They get repeated frequently because they are true, and important, and because people often forget them!
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