Heatwave magnitude in the US was highest in the 1930s
How do we know? Follow the science:
It is the conclusion from the US Fourth National Climate Assessment "heat wave magnitude reached a maximum in the 1930s."
science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR… p191
How do we know? Follow the science:
It is the conclusion from the US Fourth National Climate Assessment "heat wave magnitude reached a maximum in the 1930s."
science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR… p191
Heatwave magnitude in the US was highest in the 1930s
How do we know? Follow the science:
EPA has one — and only one — century-long heat wave indicator. It shows heatwaves strongest in 1930s decade and maxed in 1936
epa.gov/climate-indica…
How do we know? Follow the science:
EPA has one — and only one — century-long heat wave indicator. It shows heatwaves strongest in 1930s decade and maxed in 1936
epa.gov/climate-indica…
The official climate information of the US government tells us that over the last century, US heatwaves peaked in the 1930s
This is incontrovertible
But some don't like this information
Climate scientist Dessler argues "that just doesn't look right"
This is incontrovertible
But some don't like this information
Climate scientist Dessler argues "that just doesn't look right"
https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1429099366250434562
Instead of using US Climate Assessment and EPA, Dessler makes his own graph
Ostensibly it relates to heatwaves, but actually shows number of warm days
1. that's not heatwaves
2. that's not using any of the official measures for heatwaves
Ostensibly it relates to heatwaves, but actually shows number of warm days
1. that's not heatwaves
2. that's not using any of the official measures for heatwaves
https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1429099387641344000
Since so many seem eager to believe Dessler's graph
let's just dissect it:
Dessler says he's graphing hot days
But HadEX3 (temp data used for IPCC) actually shows *the opposite* result (with 1930s max)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.102…
let's just dissect it:
Dessler says he's graphing hot days
But HadEX3 (temp data used for IPCC) actually shows *the opposite* result (with 1930s max)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.102…
https://twitter.com/PatrickTBrown31/status/1429215612597792770
So Dessler feels that the data from US National Climate Assessment and EPA "just doesn't look right"
makes up a graph that doesn't show heatwaves but hot days
and his graph doesn't match other data
climdex.org/access/,
makes up a graph that doesn't show heatwaves but hot days
and his graph doesn't match other data
climdex.org/access/,
https://twitter.com/PatrickTBrown31/status/1429215612597792770
Dessler claims his new graph shows "heatwaves are certainly worse today than in the 20th century"
Yet, his data doesn't show heatwaves, doesn't match verified data, and conflicts with official findings of US Climate Assessment and EPA
tl;dr: Implausible
Yet, his data doesn't show heatwaves, doesn't match verified data, and conflicts with official findings of US Climate Assessment and EPA
tl;dr: Implausible
https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1429099400454975501
To me, the most astounding part:
why would so many cheer Dessler's poor performance against the best science?
Could it be that scary stories are more important to many than following the best science?
why would so many cheer Dessler's poor performance against the best science?
Could it be that scary stories are more important to many than following the best science?
Dessler claims that I cherry-pick in two ways:
1. I pick an "unusual metric"
Really? I use the metric chosen by EPA and the two metrics chosen by US Climate Assessment
No, Dessler,
cherry-picking is making up your own graph, badly
1. I pick an "unusual metric"
Really? I use the metric chosen by EPA and the two metrics chosen by US Climate Assessment
No, Dessler,
cherry-picking is making up your own graph, badly
https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1429099400454975501
Dessler claims that I cherry-pick in two ways:
2. I only look at the US
That is just silly. So the entire US Climate Assessment, which only looks at the US is cherry-picked?
Of course, the US is a relevant topic.
2. I only look at the US
That is just silly. So the entire US Climate Assessment, which only looks at the US is cherry-picked?
Of course, the US is a relevant topic.
https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1429099400454975501
After I engaged with Dessler, he produced multi-day graphs (thx)
But still vague (he says min, but insist max), don't replicate EPA and US Climate Assessment
and not replicated by HadEX3 (IPCC)
But still vague (he says min, but insist max), don't replicate EPA and US Climate Assessment
and not replicated by HadEX3 (IPCC)
https://twitter.com/PatrickTBrown31/status/1429215612597792770
https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1429133743483146245
Just to clarify:
Climate change is real, man-made+problem
Carbon taxes+green innovation smart
Globally and future, heatwaves will increase, coldwaves decrease
But scaring us witless with bad information is unlikely to lead to smart policies
Climate change is real, man-made+problem
Carbon taxes+green innovation smart
Globally and future, heatwaves will increase, coldwaves decrease
But scaring us witless with bad information is unlikely to lead to smart policies
Addendum on data concerns: Smart researchers at NCA+EPA *know* about limitations and take them into account
Exactly the reason for assessments — so we know what's correct w/all caveats considered
EPA: "not sufficient to change trends"
h/t @SlagOffTwits
epa.gov/climate-indica…
Exactly the reason for assessments — so we know what's correct w/all caveats considered
EPA: "not sufficient to change trends"
h/t @SlagOffTwits
epa.gov/climate-indica…
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