kumar saurabh Profile picture
Aug 23, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
A business which has multiplied its cash flows 4.5x in last 10 years has generated 1% CAGR in last 10 years.

Think multiple times while paying high n have exit plan ready when things do not work out.

Guess the stock. All data taken from screener
10 Years back the business had very good growth, high margins.
But then looks like competition sensed opportunity, barrier to entry may not have been that great. So, slowly margins fell down
Not only margins fell, slowly growth vanished
The HIGH PE market was giving went for a toss
And now this is what we have after 10 years, 1% price CAGR. Of course, there were revenue segment details but still overpaying is overpaying

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More from @suru27

Nov 22
Healthcare Sector, Q2FY25 result:
❓Best performing healthcare companies?
The list we shared

● Healthcare Global Enterprises
● Indraprastha Medical
● Kovai Medical
● Krsnaa Diagnostics
● 3B Blackbio
● Prevest Denpro

Let us explore some of these companies
⚫️Healthcare Global Enterprises
Company is largest PAN India oncology player Image
Company has been continuously improving its margin along with double digit sales and profit growth for last 3 quarters Image
Read 15 tweets
Nov 5
#IEX Fundamentals, Technical and the other data, a🧵:

IEX has been coming up with great results but market is anticipating coupling fear and hence stock is falling. This is the common perception.
Is this the case, let us deep dive? Image
Was curious to check which institutions are selling because if I blindly look at charts - then all we see is stoploss. Something very interesting came out. First thing, looking at screener, looks like FIIs and DIIs are buying and retail is selling. Also, evident in falling count of retail investors. So, who is moving the prices down?Image
Such a market cap stock can be moved up or down only by institutions. Given FII data is quarterly available but mutual fund data is monthly available, looked at the mutual fund data and here is the interesting stuff Image
Read 9 tweets
Oct 24
#Onwardtechnology #Q2FY25 #ConcallInsights

An 18–20-page conference call the beginning of the year getting compressed to 10 page at the end of the year with growth stagnating and a 50 PE valuation biting the dust - ER&D is also not secular.

If last 3 cycles of Tata Elxsi did not teach it, let Onward technology 1st cycle teach it #ScientificInvesting

Is it end of new beginning?

Some positives and some negatives from the concall covered in this thread

Why business took a hit?Image
Are things turning around?Image
Hiring is on and capabilities are being builtImage
Read 8 tweets
Sep 2
Chemical Sector

For Chemicals Sector, based on Q1FY25 result:
❓Best performing chemical companies?
❓Attractively valued chemical companies?
❓Both attractively valued and best performing?

🧵to answer all such questions to help to filter interesting ideas for research

1/6 Image
💡 Companies delivering > 15% Sales growth

2/6 Image
💡 Companies delivering > 15% PAT growth

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 20
#tatamotars had its investor day.

💰Sharing key industry insights from its investor presentation which every investor tracking automotive sector must go through

➡️CV volumes expected to grow at 4-5% CAGR Image
➡️What drives CV industry: DFC and fuel prices should be tracked from risk perspective for CV industry Image
➡️Leading Megatrends: ADAS, Connected, Electrification, Software, Technologies - NG,BEV, FCEV, H2 ICE Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 17
#HDFC A thread on history

Current price performance:
Last 5 year numbers say it all - a mere 5.5% annualized returns failing to beat FD.

Ask guys 5 years back, how was HDFC treated in market thenImage
Given stock has not given good returns, it is important to understand if stock performed badly earnings wise in last 5 years. Nothing changed in last 5, 3, 1 year. Image
Is the future going to be different and is stock going to underperform big time on growth?
HDFC Bank (keeping merger aside) has added employes and branches at 22-24% growth rate in FY23 vs FY22. Image
Read 14 tweets

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