Some initial thoughts on full FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine and what it might mean for vaccine acceptance in the US, based on @KFF polling and policy work
A commonly referenced finding from KFF's vaccine monitor is that 3 in 10 unvaccinated people reported they'd be more likely to get the vaccine upon full FDA approval
kff.org/coronavirus-co…
Still, I don't think it means that if unvaccinated people hear the news about full FDA approval 3 in 10 of will all of a sudden decide to get the shot based on that alone.
As our report states, the "reported increased likelihood [from full FDA licensure] does not necessarily reflect a nuanced understanding of the FDA approval process among unvaccinated adults and may be a proxy for more general concerns about safety.”
Whether or not people’s concerns about vaccine safety are changed by the FDA move remains to be seen, and might depend a lot on whether and how local authorities, public health leaders, and others communicate this new development to those who remain hesitant about the vaccine.
To this point, @DrewAltman wrote recently: "FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine can provide a big boost to vaccination efforts or a more modest one, depending on how it is handled when the approval comes down."
kff.org/coronavirus-co…
If the full approval is used in a way to bolster the (already solid) arguments that these vaccines are safe and effective, it could translate into a lot of "wait and see" fence-sitters choosing to get their shots.
Even so, the most significant near-term effect of the FDA move may be more vaccine mandates/requirements from employers/institutions across the country. We might expect many more announcements in days and weeks to come now uncertainty around EUA vs full approval has been lifted.

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More from @joshmich

25 Aug
Keeping a wary eye on Covid trends in South America. The good: cases/deaths there have come down from devastating peaks a few months back, and there’s progress on vaccinations. The bad: Delta may have only begun to circulate, and questions about vaccine efficacy
Most countries in the region have fully vaccinated between 20 and 40% of their populations; Chile and Uruguay stand out, with >70% fully vaccinated. Countries use a mix of vaccines, mostly Chinese inactivated vaccines (Sinovac and Sinopharm), plus some Pfizer & AstraZeneca
Chinese vaccines have lower effectiveness vs symptomatic disease but protect vs hospitalizations and death.
Chile estimated the Sinovac VE vs. symptomatic Covid at 58%, and 86% vs hospitalization. For Pfizer: 88% and 97%, AZ: 68% and 100%, respectively
minsal.cl/wp-content/upl…
Read 11 tweets
21 May
G20 summit today featured many pledges, promises and proposals to address global gaps in COVID19 vaccine access. We'll have to see how many of these become concrete actions in the weeks and months ahead.
reuters.com/world/g20-heal…
Pfizer promised to provide 2 billion doses "at cost" for lower income countries over the next 18 months: 1 billion by the end of this year and another billion by the middle of 2022.
reuters.com/business/healt…
.@gavi and J&J announced a purchase agreement of 200 million doses of the J&J vaccine for distribution through COVAX this year
gavi.org/news/media-roo…
Read 6 tweets
15 Apr
Important data on "breakthrough" infections: CDC says 5,800 infections documented so far in the US, of which 396 (7%) needed to be hospitalized. About 77 million people have been fully vaccinated in the US.
cnn.com/2021/04/14/hea…
CDC says a "little over 40% of the infections were in people 60 or more years of age" but hard to draw too many conclusions from that given that the preponderance of the vaccinated are in that age group, too.
We knew these infections would occur, and that some could lead to severe disease and even death. In this article alone, three different experts used the phrase "not surprising" to describe the phenomenon. Vaccines are not 100% protective.
washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04…
Read 8 tweets
13 Apr
In light of J&J news, of primary concern with regard to vaccine confidence in the US is the 15-20% of adults still on the fence about getting vaccinated. Could the pause, and the messaging around it, change minds from "wait and see" to "no thanks"?
kff.org/coronavirus-co… Image
The most common concerns about vaccines in the "wait and see" group revolve around safety and side effects, so if a perception takes hold - for whatever reason - that a vaccine is "unsafe" it could have implications for willingness to be vaccinated especially in this group. Image
Can't predict how things will play out here, but concerning precedent that several European countries saw a decline in confidence in the AstraZeneca vaccine after a week-long pause initiated for similar reasons as we're seeing for J&J
dw.com/en/european-tr…
Read 6 tweets
19 Jan
30% of Israel's population has received at least 1 dose of Covid-19 vaccine, but no indications yet that case numbers are coming down there (chart).

A few reasons why this might be:

1) Cases reported now were infected 7+ days ago, when vaccinations were lower Image
2) Less than 500,000 (out of ~2.7 M vaccinated) have so far received a 2nd dose. A single dose is "less effective than we hoped" in providing protection, according to Israeli health leaders.
theguardian.com/world/2021/jan…
3) Israel has vaccinated by age, starting with older persons, vaccinating to date:
80% of 70+
68% of 60-69
50% of 50-59
28% 40-49

Older ages are protected from severe disease, but younger ages typically contribute most to transmission
timesofisrael.com/israelis-aged-…
Read 6 tweets
9 Jan
Beyond the scientific and epidemiological reasons to doubt the lab escape theory of pandemic origin, let’s not forget that no US or allied intelligence has emerged with even a whiff of evidence that a lab was the origin by accident or intention.
To believe the lab escape theory you also have to believe the Chinese have mounted a successful, extended campaign to eliminate incriminating evidence and muzzle officials and scientists who knew or might have suspected it came from a lab.
It’s a pretty big secret to hold on to, especially for a sizeable group of people that includes an international network of scientists, other workers, and families -- many of whom are not exactly in the secrecy business.
Read 17 tweets

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