A lot of talk about the lack of goals in LaLiga this season.
Matchday 2 saw only 2 teams score more than a single goal, and they were playing each other.
So far in 2021/22, 6 teams are yet to score, while another 3 have only done so from the penalty spot.
Here's a thread.
Matchday 2 saw only 2 teams score more than a single goal, and they were playing each other.
So far in 2021/22, 6 teams are yet to score, while another 3 have only done so from the penalty spot.
Here's a thread.
So, let's take a look at the figures. Why are there no goals in LaLiga?
Let's look at xG, should there have been more goals?
Yes. LaLiga sides have accumulated 49.84 xG, compared to 38 goals scored. That's an average underperformance of 0.59 goals per team.
Let's look at xG, should there have been more goals?
Yes. LaLiga sides have accumulated 49.84 xG, compared to 38 goals scored. That's an average underperformance of 0.59 goals per team.
How does this compare to other European leagues?
Let's take a look at the Premier League and Bundesliga who have both played 2 games each.
🇪🇸 49.84 xG, 38 goals. 11.84 underperformance.
🏴 55.76 xG, 59 goals. 3.24 overperformance.
🇩🇪 57.56 xG, 54 goals. 3.56 overperformance.
Let's take a look at the Premier League and Bundesliga who have both played 2 games each.
🇪🇸 49.84 xG, 38 goals. 11.84 underperformance.
🏴 55.76 xG, 59 goals. 3.24 overperformance.
🇩🇪 57.56 xG, 54 goals. 3.56 overperformance.
From that we can take a few conclusions:
1⃣ LaLiga's performance compared to goals is absolutely terrible.
2⃣ LaLiga is generating significantly less xG in the first place.
The key is point 2, as over the course of a season you'd expect point 1 to level out a bit more.
1⃣ LaLiga's performance compared to goals is absolutely terrible.
2⃣ LaLiga is generating significantly less xG in the first place.
The key is point 2, as over the course of a season you'd expect point 1 to level out a bit more.
1⃣ Why is LaLiga performance compared to xG so poor?
When LaLiga teams get chances, they're similar to the Premier League or Bundesliga.
LaLiga teams average 0.11 xG per shot from open play, exactly the same as the PL, marginally behind 0.13 in the Bundesliga.
When LaLiga teams get chances, they're similar to the Premier League or Bundesliga.
LaLiga teams average 0.11 xG per shot from open play, exactly the same as the PL, marginally behind 0.13 in the Bundesliga.
The loss of Lionel Messi. Okay, we can't put it all on this, but LaLiga has lost a lot of its star attackers.
Messi single-handedly outperformed his xG by an average of 6.27 between 2014 and 2021. No-one else can replace that.
Messi single-handedly outperformed his xG by an average of 6.27 between 2014 and 2021. No-one else can replace that.
Now, the best attackers are Benzema (33), Aspas and Luis Suárez (both 34), Gerard Moreno (not world class) and Griezmann. That has an impact.
Especially early on in the season, they aren't at their best. Benzema is overperforming by 1.35, the other 4 are underpeforming by 1.68.
Especially early on in the season, they aren't at their best. Benzema is overperforming by 1.35, the other 4 are underpeforming by 1.68.
This is damaged even further given the Euros and Copa América. Players like Suárez have barely played yet, which means lower quality substitutes are playing.
Luckily for Atleti, Ángel Correa is defying the odds (exceeding xG by 2.23), but not every team has been so lucky.
Luckily for Atleti, Ángel Correa is defying the odds (exceeding xG by 2.23), but not every team has been so lucky.
Add into this the exodus of young Spanish talent to the Premier League, and a greater concentration of talent at the top of the table, and it's a dangerous recipe.
Look at Getafe (1.59 xG, 0 goals). Decent mid-table team, but their front 2 are Enes Ünal and Sandro...
Look at Getafe (1.59 xG, 0 goals). Decent mid-table team, but their front 2 are Enes Ünal and Sandro...
Equally, there's an element of just bad luck.
Osasuna, for example, have Ante Budimir, Kike García, Chimy Ávila and Rubén García. They outperformed xG by a total of 2.53 last season. In 2 games this season, they're underperforming by 2.33.
Espanyol & Villarreal similar cases.
Osasuna, for example, have Ante Budimir, Kike García, Chimy Ávila and Rubén García. They outperformed xG by a total of 2.53 last season. In 2 games this season, they're underperforming by 2.33.
Espanyol & Villarreal similar cases.
2⃣ Why is LaLiga generating less xG?
A few factors to keep in mind:
💪 Stronger defences.
⌛️ Less active playing time than other leagues.
🥵 The heat.
📉 An ongoing trend.
A few factors to keep in mind:
💪 Stronger defences.
⌛️ Less active playing time than other leagues.
🥵 The heat.
📉 An ongoing trend.
The quality of defenders in LaLiga is much higher than the quality of attackers.
LaLiga's only best in the world in his position player is goalkeeper Jan Oblak. Other top players include Courtois, Koundé, Piqué, Alaba, etc.
That makes creating chances and taking shots harder.
LaLiga's only best in the world in his position player is goalkeeper Jan Oblak. Other top players include Courtois, Koundé, Piqué, Alaba, etc.
That makes creating chances and taking shots harder.
LaLiga plays less football.
As bizarre as that sounds, LaLiga games average 50 minutes, 57 seconds with the ball in play, compared to 54 minutes, 15 seconds in the Premier League.
Poor refereeing, time-wasting, play-acting, etc. all contributes. Less game time, less chances.
As bizarre as that sounds, LaLiga games average 50 minutes, 57 seconds with the ball in play, compared to 54 minutes, 15 seconds in the Premier League.
Poor refereeing, time-wasting, play-acting, etc. all contributes. Less game time, less chances.
Another aspect is the heat. Most LaLiga games have been played at over 30°C so far.
That means games are being played at a slower pace, with more exhausted players.
This is one of the big differential factors with the PL/Bundesliga that evens out over the course of a season.
That means games are being played at a slower pace, with more exhausted players.
This is one of the big differential factors with the PL/Bundesliga that evens out over the course of a season.
So, panic stations? Not yet. We're talking about 2 games.
But there will be concerns about systemic issues over recent years (playing time, ageing stars, loss of young talent) which are coming to the fore.
But there will be concerns about systemic issues over recent years (playing time, ageing stars, loss of young talent) which are coming to the fore.
LaLiga's xG and goals scored have both been falling steadily since 2017/18.
On average, the first 2 matchdays have 2.03 xG lower and 2.89 fewer goals than the season averages.
If anything, LaLiga's xG so far in 21/22 looks good, but the goals scored is a little worrying...
On average, the first 2 matchdays have 2.03 xG lower and 2.89 fewer goals than the season averages.
If anything, LaLiga's xG so far in 21/22 looks good, but the goals scored is a little worrying...
The challenge for LaLiga as a whole lies in driving up xG.
People want to watch chances and goals, and their overall xG has been lower than other European leagues for some time.
If the goals start to dry up too, having overperformed last year, that will be a major concern.
People want to watch chances and goals, and their overall xG has been lower than other European leagues for some time.
If the goals start to dry up too, having overperformed last year, that will be a major concern.
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