1/ a quick thread on NFTs and why JPEGs are worth spending some time and energy understanding
are NFTs a bubble?
no.
wealth is a bubble. 1% of the global adult population are now millionaires.
2/ the global market for luxury goods i.e. conspicuous spending is absolutely massive
NFTs are digital flex / status symbol for a new class of consumers, but unlike the traditional markets of wealth and status, they are open to anyone, anywhere with verifiable scarcity
3/ for those who says spending millions on JPEGs is dumb and we should be solving world hunger, please give the folks on the trad art collector list a call first
people are spending $200M on blobs of paint. how is spending $2M on blobs of pixels any less noble?
4/ as noted by @Rewkang, look at the relative market caps of these companies
the addressable market for artificially scarce status symbols is in the trillions
the addressable market for verifiably scarce digital status symbols is likely just as big, if not bigger
5/ and unlike bags, watches, and shoes, digital status symbols can be fractionalized, enjoy shared ownership, and used as collateral in on-chain financial markets
@MessariCrypto highlighted the massive financialization opportunities for NFTs
6/ so there are three options
1: do nothing 🙃
2: embrace NFTs, dive in, and attempt to learn and understand; and
3: mock NFTs as a bubble and nothing more than elaborate money laundering, just as you mocked bitcoin 5 years ago
i choose 2
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1/ quick rip on why @Polymarket matters and why the future of information is markets
markets are efficient at pricing information. if you have information or insight that others don't, there's a huge opportunity to generate alpha. alpha generation requires information edge.
2/ the last few months show distrust of main stream media (MSM) and formal, credentialed sources of information is at an all time high.
so where is information coming from?
- citizen reporters on X
- indie media / podcasts
and markets will price the signals generated
3/ not all markets are equal - liquidity is key. more liquid equals more better.
see the divergence in odds btw Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket had 10x the liquidity -> higher signal.
market microstructure also drives differences but the effect is more subtle imho
1/ melts and kaledora, sitting in a tree
talking about commodities
thanks to @EV3Research @MoneroMahesh @DAnconia_Crypto for hosting me and @kaledora @OstiumLabs for bringing the rizz
slides and commentary 👇 below the jump
2/ history of oil and what it can teach us about DePIN
standard oil - rockefeller started by horizontally integrating and rolling up refineries, and then realized operating leverage would come from controlling the upstream inputs and the downstream transport and retailing
3/ we are starting to see DePIN ecosystems repeating this playbook. @helium has gone from deWi to building generalized DePIN infrastructure. @hotspotty started with deWi optimization software and is now building a broader DePIN aggregation platform.
1/ quick notes and data points from the discussion @kellyjgreer and i had at @PubKey_NYC last night
'tis the season of the most hated rally - bitcoin is ripping and macro folks are not happy about it
jamie dimon and elizabeth warren seem especially mad 😠 max cope incoming
2/ bitcoin pricing is driven by FLOWS
it's tempting to get lost in piles of analysis but as we'll discuss later on, the key to understanding is looking at open positions, trade volume, inflows and outflows
sentiment doesn't matter until it's expressed as a trade
3/ bitcoin is highly reflexive
i had a moment of enlightenment a few years back. i used to believe narrative -> sentiment -> flows -> price but it's really much simpler
price drives action
this is what @saylor $MSTR has perfected. buy, price goes up, follow with narrative
1/ a short summary of a recent talk on silicon, satoshis, and superpowers
power in our world is changing. a decade ago, oil and gas companies and banks ruled markets. now it's tech companies and financialization runs rampant (>100x P/E ratios etc)
2/ as our lives become increasingly digitized, value creation is happening on a new frontier, and a handful of industries and companies are well positioned to capitalize on this shift
3/ this is also impacting the geopolitical landscape. we live in a multipolar world, and power has historically been dependent on the ability of a nation to secure access to natural resources, namely oil