According to this analysis, and based on what CPS and other metro area districts are doing, around 1000 Cincy kids (if not more) will need hospitalized care; most of them within 30 days of school starting. We have an estimated 134 extra pediatric hospital beds.
Here is the source on the number of beds at Cincy Children's. The 134 figure comes from the assumption that they're currently at 80% capacity. Cincinnati Children’s Hospital has 670 registered beds.
source: cincinnatichildrens.org/about/corporat….
And what about adults? With the vaccination rate in Cincinnati, it's safe to assume that kids will infect tens of thousands of unvaccinated adults. Two of our (non-pediatric) hospitals are operating at 93%, and several others at close to 90%.
Hospitalization rates for adults currently ranges from 5.1% to 14.1%, depending on age. Where will these people go? And what about people needing non-COVID care? gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet…
Look at this map. How can we see this, see what's happening to our neighbors, and not be worried? This is what Gov. DeWine must have meant when he said we have a perfect storm on our hands. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
So strange, I don’t see a qualifier of “unless you’re at school,” or “unless you use a flimsy plastic barrier” next to the warning about indoor dining.
I feel like many school districts are approaching COVID mitigation as though COVID will follow their rules.
ie, COVID won’t infect anyone until 15 cumulative minutes have passed. COVID will only infect those who show symptoms and then choose to get tested all on their own. COVID takes a lunch break. COVID holds its breath when a kids puts their mask down.
COVID refuses to float in the air over flimsy plastic barriers. If a window is open today, COVID will see it and stay away tomorrow, so no need to make sure windows are open at all times.
I really wonder what how things would be right now if parents had been treated like adults and told:
-because of Delta and loosening of mitigations in communities and schools, chances are high that your child will be infected with a novel virus
(Cont’d)
-longterm effects are unknown, though there’s evidence they can be serious + affect a not insignificant number of people
-a vaccine for your child will be available on x date
-doing little or nothing will affect the ability to receive medical care of any kind for all children
-let’s work together to find a science-based solution with the best outcome possible under *these* circumstances, not the ones we wish we had
-because vaccines will be available on x date, we expect these circumstances to be temporary
-what we do or don’t do is life and death
I don't know any other way to look at this: with what schools are NOT doing in our metro area, I expect our hospitals to be overwhelmed within the next 2-3 weeks. washingtonpost.com/health/2021/08…
In schools with no masking, they're expecting 79% of kids to be infected the first semester. But it's not evenly distributed - most of this happens within the first 30 days. It's even worse if there is no masking AND no testing.
Keep in mind also that the hospitalization rate with Delta appears to be double. nytimes.com/2021/08/27/hea…
We need the strongest, clearest language possible when it comes to this. POTUS needs to outline in no uncertain terms what MUST be happening in schools - all mitigation techniques, not choosing like it's a dessert cart - if we're serious about keeping kids safe + schools open.
👆this also applies to whether we want our lives back, a stable economy, and whether or not we want our healthcare system to collapse.
If your neighbor's houses were burning uncontrollably, would you turn off your smoke alarm, squirt lighter fluid on your house, and think to yourself "it will all be fine"? No. But that's what we're doing with our schools and communities.
Since so many feel compelled to bring up car ride and swimming analogies when it comes to risk, great: let’s go with it.
You see, in both these scenarios, parents mitigate risk with layered strategies.
We get our children car seats and boosters; we make them wear their seatbelts; we avoid hazardous conditions; we buy cars with safety features; we rear face them until their spines and neck muscles are more developed; we drive carefully.