Alabama & Missippi are in hi 30s. Vermont in hi 60s (of total pop). So in best case maybe we could hope to get them to catch up, +30. But some of those were already-infected, at least 1/3?, so you’re not saving lives that much by vaxxing those. +20?
But also, the holdouts, they presumably tilt younger. The overall IFR of 0.5-0.6% doesn’t apply to the ones we’d be hoping to reach. Maybe it’s more like 0.1% on average?

So we’re hoping to save 20%*0.1%=0.02%, 2 per 10k lives that will otherwise be lost by vax-fretting.
Of course it’s something less than that in this example because the vaccine doesn’t actually save all lives, esp with the Indian strain, it’s 90% of that, so maybe more like 18 per 100k.
But also, people are still vaccinating, it didn’t flatline, there’s linear growth, which presumably could accelerate post-FDA. Those lives aren’t available to save with a vax-fretting campaign, they’re gonna get there.
was meant to be a thread below this
All my numbers wrong obv, but still. Anyway just making my usual mistake of thinking how policies (vax passports, employer mandates) could make sense & be justified

vax evidently doesn’t really slow spread much if at all so that’s not it

It’s about saving unvaxxed lives then?

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More from @soncharm

24 Aug
People keep linking continued NPIs with ‘not enough people vaxxed’. But this is nonsense. The places craziest about NPIs & masking 2yos are also places with 90+% vax rates among adults. The notion unvaxxed rates in, like, Alabama is what’s keeping your NPIs in place is ludicrous.
This leads to a frustrating and signals-crossed discourse where folks in Bluetopias are like ‘yes, we need mask mandates and vax passports! more please!’ and then ‘damn those dumb Mississippians, making us do this, how do we get them to do the right thing?’ in the same breath.
There is no magical amount of vaccinated Mississippians that will lead your crazy Bluetopia to be able to drop its NPIs and mandates, by its own criteria. That’s just not what’s going on. Maybe change the criteria? Either way, think better please.
Read 4 tweets
23 Aug
There's a class of people that is going to force little children to wear masks all day long for years, for the sole reason that opposing masks is coded as 'right wing' and they want to spite right-wingers. Any argument you make against it, they oppose, for spite. That's democracy
What's really bizarre is the contingent nature of the whole thing. There's no obvious reason 'liking masks' should be a lefty thing, nor is it obvious why righties would by nature oppose mask Rules. In another timeline the roles are totally reversed.
Anyway, the important thing is just, to force kids to wear them. Little kids. 2-year-olds. All day long. For years and years and years.

Because all The Wrong People don't like masks. That's why. That's why toddlers must be made to wear them. For spite.
Read 6 tweets
23 Aug
I know folks w/young kids (Smart People, ‘PMC’ types obviously) anxiously waiting on the vaccine for kids, terrified of unmasked schooling till then, even keeping their kids out of school. Question: is it possible, even in principle, that FDA doesn’t approve it in this context?
‘In theory’, one would like to think that regulators on this sort of thing are cold neutral agnostics, soberly doing the necessary risk/benefit calculation, and letting the chips fall where they may.

But in reality, they’re Smart People, with Smart People friends, who read NYT.
Do this thought experiment. Headline: ‘FDA doesn’t approve vaccine for under 12 - says the data don’t support it’

Picture the uproar

Picture the snarky tweets

Picture the frantic shrieks from Karens

Is it even *possible* they’d do this? I honestly don’t know. My guess is no.
Read 5 tweets
1 Aug
This is one of the (many) problems with CDC’s ‘guidelines’. They make up all these thresholds out of their butts (to throw in some color-coded table) and then *link guidance to them*.

That isn’t a scientific exercise. It’s not science. I don’t even know what it is
Defenders will say ‘well, they had to draw the line somewhere?’ No, they really didn’t. *Policymakers* have to draw the line somewhere; people in *executive roles* where they are (theoretically) accountable to the community & must balance competing concerns.
The narrow version of CDC ‘having to draw the line somewhere’ is if they want to characterize these risk factors as lo/medium/high, green/yellow/red or whatever. Hey, be my guest

But stop turning them into mechanical triggers for suggested actions
Read 9 tweets
31 Jul
Was turning right at a stop onto 25mph street Bicycle Guys like to use pretending they’re as fast as cars. Waited for car, was 150-200ft gap after it (Bicycle Guy behind), so i turned. BG got all miffed.

I like to take bike rides too and all, but I frick’n hate you Bicycle Guys
Keep in mind I 100% saw the guy. It was just my judgment that ‘yes this is a perfectly normal gap where I can make this turn now’. Would’ve made that same turn if the Bicycle Guy was a car.

He started middle-road-riding & speeding up & wanted me to wait for him I guess. Psycho
I know you got padded bike shorts but it’s not a race Bicycle Guy. You’re not doing the Tour de France. You’re on a 25mph suburb street with stop signs. It’s ok if you end up behind me instead of in front of me. For crying out loud
Read 4 tweets
30 Jul
I know this guy's graphs (which I always love) aren't definitive 'proof' - don't control for all confounds, don't 'know' counterfactual etc.

Still though. If you're one of these people who still thinks 'masks help a little?' how do you look at his graphs and not get a stroke?
Look, I was like you Smart People once. I was a 'masks might help?' person. I was a 'worth a shot?' person. But come ON. Where's the REAL-WORLD, EMPIRICAL indication that keeps you believing that these mandates do anything of *significance*?
Is the Smart position that they 'help' it's just that 'help' is so tiny you gotta delicately tease it out from 101 other variables using a STATA regression package?

Cuz if that's what it is, it's a bad policy! Period! Policies should have material effects not infinitesemal ones
Read 4 tweets

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