Leading Nowhere Profile picture
Aug 25, 2021 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Asian Granito (AGL) scrambling to ensure the upcoming Rs 225 Cr rights issue doesn't run into headwinds. Promoters recently sold 12% of AGL to invest into a related party, and promoters will now invest back into AGL via rights issue! What's up 👇 (1/7) ImageImage
Promoters justify 12% stake sale in AGL for investment into a related entity Adicon Ceramica LLP, where they state they have no holding. Weak argument, because business is intertwined and a designated partner of the LLP is a director in all material subsidiaries of AGL. (2/7) ImageImageImage
AGL recently sold 18% holding in an associated listed company Astron Paper & Board, for 47 Cr. Now, promoters in this clarification state the rights funds will be used to primarily clear debt of Crystal Ceramics (CCL). But CCL isn't heavily indebted, debt is only Rs 140 Cr. (3/7) ImageImageImage
AGL holds only 70% of Crystal Ceramics, rest 30% probably held by promoters or other third parties. If Crystal Ceramics did right issue and AGL put Rs 47 Cr sale proceeds into the rights issue, promoters would put in Rs 19 Cr for total Rs 66 Cr, addressing 50% of the debt. (4/7) Image
AGL with 74% public holding funds CCL to the extent of 100%, but promoters/third parties keep 30% of CCL for free without putting in a penny more. By the way, director of Adicon Ceramica LLP is also a director in CCL - they might be part of the 30% minority in CCL. (5/7) Image
By the way, spare a thought for minority shareholders of Astron Paper and Board - imagine waking up to find promoter sold 18% of the company. None of the last 3 Annual Reports of AGL talk about disposing Astron stake. Its valuation is also at historic low. (6/7) ImageImage
Capital-raising events like these should be looked into very thoroughly, this could be another example of fund-raise for growth/debt reduction that wouldn't be needed if not for the leakages. (7/7)

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More from @leading_nowhere

Feb 14
Start of a golden period folks, hopefully. If anything like 2018-2020, we'll get awesome valuations to buy this year. Very happy to see decimation of stupidity and over-confidence. DYOR and don't rely again on social media charlatans feeding you bullshit. You are now educated.
India, as always, grows despite everything and not because of anything specific. As I have said before, it's never as bad as it seems and never as good as it seems either. Markets will swing to extremes, you benefited on one side, now you have to ensure on the other.
I don't think smallcaps and microcaps are still cheap, but it is now the phase of just sell everything and move to safety. This means good stuff will also get irrationally cheap, the same way things drifted upwards and you enjoyed it, now you differentiate quality from crap.
Read 15 tweets
Nov 20, 2024
Read that BIS is refusing to certify factories in China and Vietnam and this is 'aimed at promoting local manufacturing'. Regulatory arbitrage businesses tend to be hot trends in the stock market. Not sure it's good for us as consumers, though.

(1/6) Image
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If state wishes to promote domestic manufacturing, it can put tariff controls like it does for solar modules. If it wishes to promote better quality, it puts standards and BIS enforces them. BIS does not 'promote domestic manufacturing'; its function is quite different.

(2/6)
BIS exists to enforce quality standards. While imposing BIS standard itself can be a subtle instrument of foreign policy, BIS here is selecting *among* compliant manufacturers rather than certifying compliance. There is a key difference which is hopefully understood.

(3/6) Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 9, 2024
Star Health employee offers direct illegal API access to full customer medical records for $43,000; then stiffs buyer, asking $150k because 'senior management' wants a cut, buyer then promptly blows the whistle in retaliation. How incompetent could you be at white collar crime?
Had one job, (a) don't leave a trail and (b) don't cheat your accomplices. Wasn't that difficult to get away with. Have to be operating with zero fear of consequences to be this careless. Darwin award candidate. Video of interactions with employee here: archive.org/details/553521
Adding some screenshots from the video + LinkedIn profile of the alleged perpetrator. Image
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Read 7 tweets
Aug 28, 2023
SEBI finally going after the finfluencer-broker nexus. Right time to point out Zerodha founders have tried all along to whitewash their role by acting holier than thou. One of them was caught cheating in an exhibition charity match with Vishwanathan Anand too. Leopard's spots...
So while on one side you have the founders going around 'cautioning' the retail public on trading and speculation, on the other side you have a massive funnel of fraud finfluencers directing traffic your way, driving the thousands of crores in profits. The house always wins.
The funnel relies on psychological manipulation and relies on a layer of separation (finfluencer)...history of speculation has shown that warnings and data rarely work where greed and manipulation are concerned...behave like a saint and just let psychology do the work for you.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 4, 2023
EKI Energy...a story.

Auditor of EKI Energy resigned in Nov'22, stating emphatically there was no dispute with management, and audit for H1FY23 was completed by them w/ clean limited review report.

But in Q3FY23, new auditor Walker Chandiok trashed the financials.

(1/12)

Management has recognised revenue, AGAINST opinion of auditor, in absence of fulfillment of contractual performance obligations!

In polite words, this seems to be fake revenue. 190 crore sales (~10%) and 110 crore (~40%) PAT. Almost half PAT is possibly...non-existent.

(2/12)
Now, EKI has STILL not released Q4FY23 results. It says this is because Walker Chandiok has to re-audit H1FY23 which was done by previous auditor. Seems like a valid reason, except it begs the question - why wasn't re-audit of H1FY23 being done since Nov'22?

(3/12)
Read 12 tweets
May 6, 2022
1/ A good way to contextualize PE ratio, think it as earnings yield:

5x = 20%
10x = 10%
20x = 5%
30x = 3.3%
50x = 2%

As you go down this scale, you're paying increasingly more for growth + durability + intangible assumptions. If assumptions uncertain, how much would you pay?
2/ If you're worried about inflation and interest rates, just remember:

A 10% bond purchased at FV 100 is at 10 PE.
A 5% bond at FV 100 is at 20 PE.

It is a very simple way to analyze how much extra you'd pay for equity if I could give you a safe 10% bond instead?
3/ Yes, we are in equities for the unlimited upside, but once you spend a few years in the market and experience the realities, you will get a razorsharp focus on wanting to pay less and get more.

A steady-state earnings yield analysis is an excellent way to get perspective.
Read 10 tweets

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