Thread by @RajeevJayadevan

Vaccines prevent deaths.

Audit of 281 COVID-19 deaths in Ernakulam showed that 98.2% of the deaths occurred among those who had not been (fully) vaccinated. i.e. only 1.8% of deaths were fully vaccinated.

@RajeevJayadevan Quoted in The Hindu today.

thehindu.com/news/cities/Ko…

🔺All deaths among the fully vaccinated, occurred in people older than 60.

The current vaccination coverage in adults is 68% (1 dose) & 24% (2 doses)

We can say the % of fully vaccinated is 24%, yet deaths in that category was only 1.8% - that is 92.5% lower than expected.

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These figures from death audits aren’t enough to calculate vaccine effectiveness.

But when we compare with current vaccination coverage, we get an idea of how much lower the deaths are among the fully vaccinated.

1.8% (observed rate) is 92.5% lower than 24% (expected rate*)

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*To explain the math, let’s imagine the vaccine has zero effect (i.e. same as water).

In that case, (theoretically) out of every 100 deaths, 24 would have had full vaccination. (Because that’s the current vaccination coverage in adults)

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But when we looked at 100 actual deaths, we found that the % of fully vaccinated was only 1.8%, and not 24%.

The more effective vaccine is, the lower that % would be.

e.g. A mildly effective vaccine might turn up a death % of 12%. We got as low as 1.8%, which is very good.

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Note: by definition, this is not “effectiveness”, but it gives an idea.

Similar observations are also regularly reported by individual doctors from across the region.

In summary, it is good to get data on the ground that vaccines are preventing severe disease & deaths.

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Thanks @thebokettogirl @redindian09 @MenonBioPhysics @labeebmv @sijuvincent @Streak214 @rubymary89 @seeni_me @DrLahariya