📣📣 It's been about 6 weeks *and* I've updated everything with the official 2020 Census data, so it's time once again to look at the county-level vaccination rates for each individual state!
First up...Alabama:
ALASKA is, as always, kind of all over the place with no discernible pattern to speak of:
ARIZONA. I've actually decided to start scrapping the "herd immunity threshold" line since a) we don't know how high it actually is and b) it clutters up the graphs. Let's just say every county SHOULD be as close to the top as possible.
ARKANSAS. Yes, Miller County has only vaccinated 10% of their population. They have 42,600 residents and gave Trump 72% of their vote.
CALIFORNIA. R^2: 0.7324. Amazing.
COLORADO. R^2: 0.767. Even more amazing.
CONNECTICUT, DELAWARE, DC, HAWAII & RHODE ISLAND (none of these have more than 8 counties to begin with so it doesn't make much sense to look for a pattern, but I've included them for completeness anyway):
FLORIDA. Sumter County is, of course, home to The Villages, the massive retirement community where Trump held rallies last summer.
Miami-Dade is 66% vaxxed yet still has high case rates. I have no idea about the *death* rate there recently, however; FL isn't breaking that out.
GEORGIA.
IDAHO.
ILLINOIS.
INDIANA.
IOWA:
KANSAS:
KENTUCKY:
LOUISIANA.
I still don't know what the deal is with West Feliciana, unless it's the Louisiana State Prison...in which case that's a GOOD thing as it means the prisoners are highly vaccinated?
Have to take a break for awhile, will get the rest of the states this evening. Meanwhile, if you find my work useful you can support it here, thanks! ACASignups.net/support
MAINE.
R^2: 0.8 even.
MARYLAND.
MASSACHUSETTS. I've had to revise Dukes & Nantucket about 4 times based on conflicting vaccination data sources, but I think I have it right now.
MICHIGAN.
MINNESOTA:
MISSISSIPPI:
MISSOURI:
MONTANA:
NEBRASKA:
NEVADA:
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
NEW JERSEY.
Worth noting that the state with the highest cumulative COVID death rate has the *weakest* partisan lean effect of all 50 states.
(No, Florida still hasn't surpassed New Jersey on this front unless they're hiding over 21,000 deaths...which I admit is conceivable)
NEW MEXICO. R^2: 0.7593.
Los Alamos is, of course, home to the Los Alamos National Laboratory.
NEW YORK.
Brooklyn & The Bronx need to get their butts in gear.
NORTH CAROLINA.
Here we run into a data-tracking headache (h/t @DavidNir for calling my attention to it): The @CDCgov data claims to be 96.3% complete for NC...but the @NCDHHS claims that Martin County, which CDC says is nearly 80% vaxxed, is actually only 42%.
If NC only had 1 county which was significantly off, I'd just take note of it going forward and move on, but there's a BUNCH of NC counties where the CDC & NCDHHS show differences of > 5%...and several which are over 10% off.
SOUTH DAKOTA, currently in the midst of an ugly post-#SturgisRally COVID spike.
Yes, according to the CDC data, McPherson County, SD is less than 10% vaccinated.
(Sturgis is in Meade County, which is buried in the middle of that blob in the red section)
TENNESSEE.
TEXAS.
Texas has a whopping 254 counties, ranging from Harris County's 4.7 million residents to tiny Loving County, which has a whopping 64 residents according to the official 2020 Census.
I have no idea what the deal is with Hudspeth County; if someone knows please clue me in.
UTAH. R^2: 0.7493.
VERMONT.
VIRGINIA.
VA is kind of all over the place, possibly because they have this weird hybrid system in which half the counties are actually "independent cities" which are also considered counties.
Note that @CovidActNow doesn't list Manassas City or Manassas Park for some reason.
WASHINGTON STATE.
WEST VIRGINIA.
WV started out boasting the highest vaccination rate last spring when it was restricted to seniors...but quickly fell behind once the vaccines became available to everyone.
WISCONSIN.
Before I wrap things up, a reminder that if you find my work useful & want to support it, you can do so here, thanks! acasignups.net/support
Annnnnnd here's WYOMING, the smallest state in the country, with an R^2 correlation of an eye-popping 0.8838:
I've personally renamed Teton County, Wyoming "Thor's Twins" after this famous scene from The Hunt for Red October.
The Inflation Reduction Act is also the reason over 20 million #ACA enrollees are saving an average of $800/yr on health insurance premiums.
Unfortunately that provision is scheduled to sunset at the end of 2025 unless legislation is passed to make the savings permanent.
I’ve written up estimates of how much net premiums would jump for various households in every state starting in January 2016 if the IRA subsidy formula isn’t extended. It’s not pretty. Here’s the first 5 states: acasignups.net/24/07/09/state…
Folks, donating to #HarrisWalz2024 is fine, but we REALLY need to focus on DOWNBALLOT races as well!
Here's how much I've raised for Harris/Walz vs. ~70 House/Senate races & ~700 State Legislative races.
Pick a page, pick some candidates & donate at . Blue24.org
Here's my Senate page where you can donate DIRECTLY to @RubenGallego, @DebbieforFL, @AlsobrooksForMD, @ElissaSlotkin, @jontester, @RosenforNevada, @SherrodBrown, @Bob_Casey, @ColinAllredTX & @tammybaldwin, as well as up to 10 other Senate Dem nominees:
@RubenGallego @DebbieforFL @AlsobrooksForMD @ElissaSlotkin @jontester @RosenforNevada @SherrodBrown @Bob_Casey @ColinAllredTX @tammybaldwin Here's my House page where you can donate DIRECTLY to up to 50 Dems running for COMPETITIVE House races, including @DrAmishShah, @EngelForArizona, @AdamGrayCA, @RudySalasCA, @gtwhitesides, @WillRollinsCA, @YadiraCaraveo, @CurtisHertelJr & @McdonaldRivet:
🔥 Guys...donating to #HarrisWalz2024 is fine, but we REALLY need to focus DOWN BALLOT as well! 1/
As my followers know, I've set up a simple website at which contains pages to donate DIRECTLY to *hundreds* of Democrats running for *competitive* seats in everything from State Legislature to U.S. Senate. 2/Blue24.org
So far this cycle I've raised a staggering $5.4 MILLION for #HarrisWalz2024. I'm incredibly proud of this...but I'm STRONGLY urging people to also donate to STATE LEGISLATIVE races, where small donations go a lot farther.
My main concern wasn’t about her personally (I actually supported her over Biden back in 2019); it was more about whether they could make the transition without it turning into a mess. So far they’ve pulled it off nearly perfectly.
With early voting starting in just 65 days in a few states, David asked this very reasonable question. I'm not an expert, but my general understanding of the situation is this: 1/
There've been a number of polls claiming that Harris/etc. would perform a few points better...but that's all THEORETICAL.
We all know that the moment it became a reality the numbers could change dramatically...especially given all the other chaos which would surround it. 2/
The thinking seems to be that Harris has a higher ceiling but also a lower floor. If you're 100% certain that Biden can't win, it therefore makes sense to figure you have nothing to lose.
However, this would upset millions of Dems who voted for Biden in the primary... 3/
Thread. ~20 years ago, one of the minor controversies surrounding then-President George W. Bush was after being warned that something he wanted to do was unconstitutional, he allegedly angrily replied that the Constitution is "just a damned piece of paper!" 1/
I don't know whether this actually happened or not, but regardless of how appalling it my is, on the most basic level that's actually *correct*: The Constitution *in and of itself* *is* "just a damned peice of paper." It's not a talisman. It doesn't have any magical powers. 2/
The power of The Constitution is in the hands of whoever the American People happen to be at any particular point in time.
If those in charge *and* enough of those who aren't either actively want to ignore the Constitution or just don't care enough to defend it, guess what? 3/