Suraj Profile picture
Aug 28, 2021 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
A very simple summary of August 4th week:

Best. Week. Ever.

49.2 million vaccinations between Aug 22-28.

1/ Image
It included the first instance of a day of >10 million vaccinations, in a week where the worst weekday was 5.6 million. This new chart reports daily number for the past 3 months broken into buckets:

2/ Image
This new chart was necessitated by the fact that every day is now over 5m. 4 weeks of August are:
19 days >5m
5 days of 4-5m
4 Sundays

The data above 5m is so frequent and varied that it does not work as a single bucket anymore.

3/ Image
This was also the best month ever. Currently at 162 million with three more days to go. There’s a Sunday and Krishna Janmashtami, so the government appears to have worked hard to get nearly 20 million doses done just on Fri+Sat.

4/ Image
India only started general vaccinations on March 1. Until then, like several countries including Japan, India only vaccinated the healthcare and frontline workers. Since the start of general vaccinations, here are the numbers to date:

5/ Image
The data is even more revealing looking at performance since beginning of June - India significantly outperforms the European Union and United States combined, and is close to EU + North America combined.

6/ Image
With 630 million doses done, over 50% of adult population - 485 million - have a single dose. Nearly 150 million are fully vaccinated, a number that will rise significantly in the next few weeks as a large number of June first doses become eligible.

7/
September should see the fully vaccinated count increase by 100 million, even as total vaccinations for that month remain on track to exceed the 200 million mark based on early production estimates, with SII alone indicating 200m output.

8/
August should end with 640-650 million cumulative, with September estimated to add another 200m+ . Given successive months of over-delivering on promises (131m vs 120m in July, 162m+ vs 150m in Aug), one can make their own guesses for September performance.

9/
September has significant upside surprise potential due to potential availability of new vaccines like Corbevax, which could result in a monthly total near quarter billion, i.e. vaccinating an entire Japan every 2 weeks.

And of course, all of these are Made in India.

10/10

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More from @surajbrf

Nov 18
Thread on the growth of India's GDP Per Capita in PPP Terms.

All data from IMF WEO Oct 2024 DB:

First up, let's look at the high level picture - In 2024 India has a GDP PPP per capita of approx $11,200 . It crossed $10,000 in 2023.

1/ imf.org/en/Publication…Image
In terms of broad peer groups, this is in the same range as lower SE Asia, Middle East, Central Asia and South America.

10 year income growth vs SE Asian peers in the $10K-15K income group (Philipppines, Vietnam, Indonesia). India exceeds all three between 2014-2024.

2/ Image
Image
But how does it compare against the gold standard - China ? Let's pull up the original chart, but stick it next to China's chart:

Side by side, the sustained high growth China demonstrated is easily visible - several years of double digit per-capita growth, now moderating.

3/ Image
Image
Read 21 tweets
Apr 26
@virendersehwag is just stating reality.

The IPL is by a distance the richest T20 league in the world, over 5x bigger than the BBL, probably moreso today:



The Big Bash League is not a peer of the IPL, but of of the Caribbean Premier League.

1/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_p…

Image
The IPL is also far more lucrative in revenue per game, despite the fact that with a mere 74 games, it’s in the bottom 5 of sports leagues by number of games played per season.

Each of those games is a money spinner. Let’s look at how much.

2/ Image
In terms of total revenue, the IPL ranks a reasonable 13th position among global leagues, despite having so few games in a single season.

But this is an incomplete picture.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 13, 2022
$669 billion in total exports for the just concluded fiscal year 2021-22 !

Up from just under $500 billion in the COVID-hit 2020-21 and $540 billion in the pre-COVID 2019-20 FY.

This should catapult India into the top 10 exporting countries, for the first time since 1949.
There are only three countries on the planet with $1 trillion+ exports - China, USA and Germany. Even Japan is around $850-900B in FY 2021.

India jumped ~10 ranking places to provisionally #8 this year. Positions 4-7 are Japan, UK, France and Netherlands - all $700-900B.


India began 1949 the 9th biggest exporter.
It left the top 10 by end of that year.
It left the top 20 in 1957.
It reentered the top 20 in 2010, but didn't rise further until 2017-18 when it was 18th ranked. 2021-22 saw a big jump to 8th position. ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Feb 19, 2022
Updating thread for Feb 19 2022

Today was a day of symmetry as the vaccination total hit 175 crore (1.75 billion), exactly on day 400 since start of vaccination. This corresponds to an average of almost 4.4 million vaccinations a day, over four hundred days.

1/
The monthly total to date is now almost 88 million. February should easily cross 100 million and will likely finish at around 125 million. This is expected as it is predominantly second dose + boosters. March will be much higher as the 12+ group becomes eligible.

2/
With even the second dose numbers not very high now, the daily average over the past week was just 4 million - multiple days towards the end of week being around 3.98 million, and thus still in the 3.x bucket.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 5, 2022
Starting a thread for week ended Feb 5 2022.

This was another quiet week with ‘only’ 38 million doses. January ended as the second highest month for vaccinations, with 215 million doses done:

1/
This Is because the weekly numbers dropped to just 5.5-6.5 million this week, driven mostly by a drop in first dose numbers.

The 15-17 group has received ~6 million second doses, even as their first dose numbers taper.

We will dig into this more.

2/
Why are first doses tapering ?

Because there are not many people left to do.

Green - current eligible group
Yellow - starting in March
Red - vaccine in Phase 3 trials
Blue - pediatric vaccine in early trials

The green group is only 99 million, mostly distant rural.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 5, 2022
The V-Dem Report is garbage for the simple reason that both the data and methodology are bogus.

There are 150+ questions to be answered by a panel of ~20 people.

10-20x too many questions. Sample size needs to be 1000x larger.

This cannot mitigate sampling error.

1/
So how do you fix sampling error ? You get a small number of people to agree - keeping pop standard deviation down because sample size is tiny.

Disagreement is a problem - if you get half of them to disagree, your sampling error is 20-45% depending on sample size. Oops.

2/
So let us pretend these experts indeed know what they’re doing. Let us look at the data. This author has the entire VDem dataset, analyzed in detail together with @jai_menon :

swarajyamag.com/ideas/an-analy…

3/
Read 10 tweets

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