IC report on genetic engineering:
"Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way."
Low confidence. Not sufficient evidence.
Do we also need to walk a genetically engineered origin from conspiracy theory ➡️ extremely unlikely ➡️ plausible enough that it's a toss-up?
We're talking about 🇨🇳 1st BSL4 facility, one of their prized virus research institutes, with known military collaborations & confidentiality protocols - some reports/theses sealed for up to 20 years - could we be underestimating the amount of genetic engineering and perhaps GOF?
Please save the debunking and ruling out for when we actually get access to lab records and better intelligence.
Why are there so few people on this island where it's clear that likelihoods cannot yet be confidently estimated?
Can the funders please stop teasing us with these tidbits:
You said that EcoHealth Alliance+WIV had proposed genetically engineering MERS-related coronaviruses. What were they doing?
You said that the EcoHealth Alliance and WIV proposed to genetically engineer novel bat coronaviruses and MERS-CoV at the WIV to understand how this "affected how the viruses grew in the laboratory or behaved in mice infected with the viruses".
By any chance, were furin cleavage sites being moved around in novel bat coronaviruses?
The sequence in MERS is PRSVR.
The sequence in SARS2 is PRRAR.
Both have an RXXR type functional furin recognition motif. SARS2 even has an extra R.
This information actually sits right here in the USA.
Has anyone been able to look at the communications and documents shared between EcoHealth Alliance and their diverse funders?
Depending on what the answer is and whether the work was also being done at BSL2, we might need to already start preparing for a MERS2 outbreak in a city where it is entirely unexpected. At which point some experts will misinform us that that region has a history of MERS.
Borrowing a line from @R_H_Ebright we need to re-evaluate the reading comprehension skills of scientists and journalists claiming that the US IC ruled 4 against 1 for lab origins.
Not providing context on confidence levels & the 3 "Don't Know"s results in miscommunication.
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“The real question is whether or not research has the potential to create or facilitate the selection of viruses that might infect humans.” theintercept.com/2021/09/09/cov…
“All but two of the scientists consulted agreed that, whatever title it is given, the newly public experiment raised serious concerns about the safety and oversight of federally funded research.”
Although the study describing 4991/RaTG13 for the first time and Latinne et al.’s paper were described as having been funded by the EHA grant, I didn’t see even a glimpse of the 9 Mojiang mine SARSrCoVs throughout the 900+ pages of text, phylogenetic trees and other figures.
@fastlerner@MaraHvistendahl@theintercept “they actually point out that they know how risky this work is. They keep talking about people potentially getting bitten—and they kept records of everyone who got bitten. Does EcoHealth have those records? And if not, how can they possibly rule out a research-related accident?”
"There are compelling reasons to expect that the frequency [of outbreaks] will increase.. laboratories around the world handling dangerous pathogens is growing in part as a response to increasing pandemic risk, boosting the likelihood that a contagious pathogen could be released"
The old ways by which infectious diseases emerge have not suddenly disappeared. As the plan notes, there are now increased zoonotic transmissions from animals driven by human population growth, climate change & habitat loss.
But there are also new ways: lab release, bioweapons.
Going up against experts who believe in a natural origin is tough because their field expertise & seniority are often enough to convince non-scientists of a particular argument.
Many who can’t understand the science put their trust in established experts. This is reasonable.
But what’s even tougher is dealing with the small anti-science crowd that believes in a lab origin and is out to get scientists. As a result even true experts who want an investigation of lab origins are painted with a broad brush as unscientific or even responsible for violence.
If you see anonymous people attacking scientists, regardless of which side, I urge you to ask them to stop or report them. These attacks distract from the scientific issue at hand and make it more difficult to hold scientists and leaders accountable.
“Altos is luring university professors by offering sports-star salaries of $1 million a year or more, plus equity, as well as freedom from the hassle of applying for grants.”
If there’s this much money, please set up a department to reproduce key works in the aging field.
If you quickly show which research are reproducible, you will move the whole field forward by decades. That’s a guaranteed way to save scientists from wasting time chasing deadends.
Non-scientists have no idea how much 🧠⏳💸 (100s of mil) are wasted, redundantly, by scientists worldwide each trying to reproduce top publications.
I can’t think of a surer way to accelerate science than to rapidly reveal which studies are reproducible. vox.com/future-perfect…
Using covidcg.org to keep tabs on the Delta sublineages in North America.
Orange is AY.4, light blue is AY.3, pink is AY.12, dark blue is AY.25.
This is the cumulative % of sequences that are AY.4 in each country in North America over time (past 3 months). Visualized using the Compare Locations feature on covidcg.org