Raoul Pal Profile picture
Aug 29, 2021 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Humour me, let's just imagine that QE does actually debase a currency then it surely would have effects something very much like this... (SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet).
Over the longer run, since QE started it would probably look something like this if the currency was being debased...
If money was being debased then Real Estate would also most likely follow the increase in the central bank balance sheet...
And normally, when currencies are debased (and the public doesn't yet realize it), wages tend to not rise and thus assets versus wages get really really expensive...(and CPI inflation can't rise).
Eventually, anyone who doesn't own scarce assets will realize that they have been totally fucked, If an asset is stored future wealth for consumption, they have gotten a LOT poorer through no fault of their own.

This process can happen slowly enough that people dont realize it
I have spend since 2008 pondering what QE means and I have gone from "It increases risk taking" to "its a passing pavlovian response by investors" to "Fuck, they really are debasing fiat currency globally to avoid a debt crisis".

It sounds kind of crazy. I get that.
It's hard, because to believe in debasement is to believe that the social contract has been torn up and its the governments vs the people in whoever goes bust.

It is just too far fetched but the evidence is simply overwhelming. I have written hundreds of pages in coming to this.
Hence why I posted this yesterday to help you realize it too...

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More from @RaoulGMI

Aug 31
Crypto is still being adopted at twice the speed on the internet from 5m IP addresses vs 5m wallets (very like for like). 1/ Image
And its on its way to 4 billion by 2030... Image
And that will take it from $4trn in market cap today to $100trn by 2032/2034 Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 29
Let's talk about the Crypto Waiting Room... many key part of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch. Let's look at a few (you will have yours too...)

Total3 - Ex- BTC and ETH...ready to launch from the waiting room. 1/ ... Image
OTHERS (Outside of Top 10... purest form of Alts season where all shit rises). Still in the waiting room but longer to launch... Image
ETH... Full Port. Image
Read 14 tweets
Mar 10
This too shall pass...

Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast and M2 is headed back to new highs. This is just a regular correction... 1/ Image
We had the exact same correction in 2017 caused by the same reaction to Trump policies (higher dollar and higher rates which then reversed). 2/ Image
Over time, we just keep climbing the log regression channel. Whether we stay at the man (red) or climb above it by another standard deviation or two remains to be seen as the cycle develops. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 10, 2024
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.

Here is $DOGE leading the breakout... 1/ Image
Here is $WIF about to break out... Image
And Smoking Chicken Fish will follow suit.. $SCF Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5, 2024
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:

1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks. Image
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro. Image
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 29, 2024
With $BTC well over $70k... Im looking for the final confirmations from some others. $SOL over $185... 1/ Image
$SUI is breaking its consolidation now and should be headed to new ATH's Image
And $DOGE is within sniffing distance... the dog can smell the ripening fruit. Image
Read 4 tweets

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