Raoul Pal Profile picture
Aug 29, 2021 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Humour me, let's just imagine that QE does actually debase a currency then it surely would have effects something very much like this... (SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet).
Over the longer run, since QE started it would probably look something like this if the currency was being debased...
If money was being debased then Real Estate would also most likely follow the increase in the central bank balance sheet...
And normally, when currencies are debased (and the public doesn't yet realize it), wages tend to not rise and thus assets versus wages get really really expensive...(and CPI inflation can't rise).
Eventually, anyone who doesn't own scarce assets will realize that they have been totally fucked, If an asset is stored future wealth for consumption, they have gotten a LOT poorer through no fault of their own.

This process can happen slowly enough that people dont realize it
I have spend since 2008 pondering what QE means and I have gone from "It increases risk taking" to "its a passing pavlovian response by investors" to "Fuck, they really are debasing fiat currency globally to avoid a debt crisis".

It sounds kind of crazy. I get that.
It's hard, because to believe in debasement is to believe that the social contract has been torn up and its the governments vs the people in whoever goes bust.

It is just too far fetched but the evidence is simply overwhelming. I have written hundreds of pages in coming to this.
Hence why I posted this yesterday to help you realize it too...

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More from @RaoulGMI

May 13
A bit of shade being thrown about the Banana Zone. Let me clarify...

Macro Summer and Fall are driven by the global liquidity cycle that exhibits clear cyclicality since 2008. Image
Why since 2008? Well, back then the worlds all reset their interest payments to zero and they debt maturity to 3 to 4 years, creating a perfect macro cycle. Image
You can see the perfect cyclicality in ISM (the best guide to the business cycle) Image
Read 19 tweets
Apr 28
Ever wondered where all my research comes from?

Well, the genesis of ALL my thinking comes from Global Macro Investor, where @BittelJulien and I do our deep thinking each month (120 pages+).

I'm immensely proud of GMI and Ive been writing it for 20 years.... 1/
It is an expensive research service and is subscribed to by many of the world's largest hedge funds (usually the principals), SWF's, Asset managers, RIA's, Family Offices and HNW investors.

It also has the best proven and recorded track record of any research service...ever.
A 20-year track record of performance is not something that any other service provides.

My track record has many 100% plus years (thank you crypto!), many decent years, some so so and some bad ones. But it is all timestamped and transparent.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 28
The Pause That Refreshes...

1. Bitcoin Image
The Pause That Refreshes...

2. ETH Image
The Pause That Refreshes...

3. SOL Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 4
The Fed arent going to cut! Its only going to be once or twice! The markets are going to freak out!

Meanwhile, in Global Macro Investor (GMI)...

1995/6 springs to mind... 1/ Image
Bond yields didnt return to their lows...(or their highs) Image
And equities went into hyperspace (even with a massive dollar rally). Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 24
What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/ Image
And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis... Image
And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall... Image
Read 10 tweets
Feb 4
It can't be this easy, right?...right? Part 1 - Bitcoin +110% annual returns from doing nothing. Image
It can't be this easy, right?... right? Part 2 - Nasdaq +21% annual returns from doing nothing. Image
Maybe it really is this easy? BTC vs GMI Total Global Liquidity Index (global fiat debasement)... Image
Read 7 tweets

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