Humour me, let's just imagine that QE does actually debase a currency then it surely would have effects something very much like this... (SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet).
Over the longer run, since QE started it would probably look something like this if the currency was being debased...
If money was being debased then Real Estate would also most likely follow the increase in the central bank balance sheet...
And normally, when currencies are debased (and the public doesn't yet realize it), wages tend to not rise and thus assets versus wages get really really expensive...(and CPI inflation can't rise).
Eventually, anyone who doesn't own scarce assets will realize that they have been totally fucked, If an asset is stored future wealth for consumption, they have gotten a LOT poorer through no fault of their own.
This process can happen slowly enough that people dont realize it
I have spend since 2008 pondering what QE means and I have gone from "It increases risk taking" to "its a passing pavlovian response by investors" to "Fuck, they really are debasing fiat currency globally to avoid a debt crisis".
It sounds kind of crazy. I get that.
It's hard, because to believe in debasement is to believe that the social contract has been torn up and its the governments vs the people in whoever goes bust.
It is just too far fetched but the evidence is simply overwhelming. I have written hundreds of pages in coming to this.
Hence why I posted this yesterday to help you realize it too...
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Let's talk about the Crypto Waiting Room... many key part of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch. Let's look at a few (you will have yours too...)
Total3 - Ex- BTC and ETH...ready to launch from the waiting room. 1/ ...
OTHERS (Outside of Top 10... purest form of Alts season where all shit rises). Still in the waiting room but longer to launch...
Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast and M2 is headed back to new highs. This is just a regular correction... 1/
We had the exact same correction in 2017 caused by the same reaction to Trump policies (higher dollar and higher rates which then reversed). 2/
Over time, we just keep climbing the log regression channel. Whether we stay at the man (red) or climb above it by another standard deviation or two remains to be seen as the cycle develops.
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:
1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks.
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro.
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time.