Humour me, let's just imagine that QE does actually debase a currency then it surely would have effects something very much like this... (SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet).
Over the longer run, since QE started it would probably look something like this if the currency was being debased...
If money was being debased then Real Estate would also most likely follow the increase in the central bank balance sheet...
And normally, when currencies are debased (and the public doesn't yet realize it), wages tend to not rise and thus assets versus wages get really really expensive...(and CPI inflation can't rise).
Eventually, anyone who doesn't own scarce assets will realize that they have been totally fucked, If an asset is stored future wealth for consumption, they have gotten a LOT poorer through no fault of their own.
This process can happen slowly enough that people dont realize it
I have spend since 2008 pondering what QE means and I have gone from "It increases risk taking" to "its a passing pavlovian response by investors" to "Fuck, they really are debasing fiat currency globally to avoid a debt crisis".
It sounds kind of crazy. I get that.
It's hard, because to believe in debasement is to believe that the social contract has been torn up and its the governments vs the people in whoever goes bust.
It is just too far fetched but the evidence is simply overwhelming. I have written hundreds of pages in coming to this.
Hence why I posted this yesterday to help you realize it too...
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:
1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks.
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro.
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time.
$SUI is actiing like it is going to be one of the key Chosen Ones of the major new chains, if not THE Chosen One...
The chart has broken out of the inverse head and shoulders, which is an important first step. 1/
But more importantly, it has broen the downtrend vs $SOL (and all the top 20 tokens). Its relative strength in a sideways market is worth paying attention to.
But SUI is still in its early innings and the proof will have to be in successful appplications that scale built on top of the tech stack.
TVL is a small part of this and the Circle announcement is another good step. Gaming is a potential big breakout but still too early...
Sui $SUI is the groundbreaking ultra-fast L1, super efficient, full blockchain ecosystem that came out of Meta's Diem project.
The idea is that it is built for the scale of 4 billion people... i.e turning Web2 > Web3 1/
I have been looking for signs of the next big L1 mover by looking at the relative charts of many compared to each other and have mentioned this methodology on many podcasts....
$SUI is starting to look very interesting from a price perspective, although still early and unconfirmed, it is showing signs of breaking out against most tokens.