Raoul Pal Profile picture
Aug 29, 2021 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Humour me, let's just imagine that QE does actually debase a currency then it surely would have effects something very much like this... (SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet).
Over the longer run, since QE started it would probably look something like this if the currency was being debased...
If money was being debased then Real Estate would also most likely follow the increase in the central bank balance sheet...
And normally, when currencies are debased (and the public doesn't yet realize it), wages tend to not rise and thus assets versus wages get really really expensive...(and CPI inflation can't rise).
Eventually, anyone who doesn't own scarce assets will realize that they have been totally fucked, If an asset is stored future wealth for consumption, they have gotten a LOT poorer through no fault of their own.

This process can happen slowly enough that people dont realize it
I have spend since 2008 pondering what QE means and I have gone from "It increases risk taking" to "its a passing pavlovian response by investors" to "Fuck, they really are debasing fiat currency globally to avoid a debt crisis".

It sounds kind of crazy. I get that.
It's hard, because to believe in debasement is to believe that the social contract has been torn up and its the governments vs the people in whoever goes bust.

It is just too far fetched but the evidence is simply overwhelming. I have written hundreds of pages in coming to this.
Hence why I posted this yesterday to help you realize it too...

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More from @RaoulGMI

Nov 10
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.

Here is $DOGE leading the breakout... 1/ Image
Here is $WIF about to break out... Image
And Smoking Chicken Fish will follow suit.. $SCF Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:

1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks. Image
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro. Image
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 29
With $BTC well over $70k... Im looking for the final confirmations from some others. $SOL over $185... 1/ Image
$SUI is breaking its consolidation now and should be headed to new ATH's Image
And $DOGE is within sniffing distance... the dog can smell the ripening fruit. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 17
$SUI is actiing like it is going to be one of the key Chosen Ones of the major new chains, if not THE Chosen One...

The chart has broken out of the inverse head and shoulders, which is an important first step. 1/Image
But more importantly, it has broen the downtrend vs $SOL (and all the top 20 tokens). Its relative strength in a sideways market is worth paying attention to.Image
But SUI is still in its early innings and the proof will have to be in successful appplications that scale built on top of the tech stack.

TVL is a small part of this and the Circle announcement is another good step. Gaming is a potential big breakout but still too early...
Read 7 tweets
Aug 8
Sui $SUI is the groundbreaking ultra-fast L1, super efficient, full blockchain ecosystem that came out of Meta's Diem project.

The idea is that it is built for the scale of 4 billion people... i.e turning Web2 > Web3 1/
I have been looking for signs of the next big L1 mover by looking at the relative charts of many compared to each other and have mentioned this methodology on many podcasts....
$SUI is starting to look very interesting from a price perspective, although still early and unconfirmed, it is showing signs of breaking out against most tokens.

This is SUI/USD... Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 29
Macro Summer in beginning to take hold and should last at least for the rest of 2024 and into 2025.

2 yr yields have formed a large top with a potential objective to 2.5% 1/ Image
The NDX has probably completed it's healthy correction... Image
Its perfect timing during election years... Image
Read 8 tweets

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