"Alibaba’s management team enjoys the “capacity to suffer”
as the result of protection from Wall Street’s disruptive censures as a result of protection provided them by Alibaba’s founding shareholder, Jack Ma."
Alibaba network is deeply ingrained with commerce.
"With roughly one billion Chinese average annual consumers and roughly 260 million additional consumers outside of China, it is hard to imagine shopping in China without involvement in one manner or another with Alibaba."
Alibaba is well capitalized with rock-solid balance sheet.
$71 billion in cash & equivalent.
Investments in over 100 disruptive start-ups.
Over 30% interest in Ant Financial.
Valuation is modest, at a multiple of EV/EBITA of 10x.
Position sized to 2.5% to 3% due to regulatory risks that may cripple Alibaba's competitive moats.
Russo seeks to invest in companies with multiple business gems.
Particularly if the company's services are the only way that consumers can obtain such goods or services.
$BABA businesses provide brands & products that consumers can't do without and could only obtain via $BABA
Russo deems that it is more probable that China would recognize that they needed the Western-style, modern retail, and a robust innovation pipeline.
He did not anticipate the pace and appetite of regulatory declarations and investigations since his initial position in 2020.
Russo referred to China's recent move as "disinfectants" to combat risks that have arisen over decades of business misconduct.
How the disinfectant may lead to healthier business practices:
1. Ant Financial 🐜
2. Data Security 💻
3. Below Cost Pricing 🛒
4. Future Technology 🤖
5. No More "Choose One from Two" 🏪
6. Increase War on Counterfeit
7. Academic Expectations
All-in-all, Russo believes these "disinfectants" will strengthen $BABA position over time.
Despite what the headlines and share price may imply.
Summary of Russo's bull thesis 🐂
Alibaba has been buying back shares at an attractive valuation.
Expecting strong growth from cloud and core commerce business.
Fundsmith is on track for its 5th year of underperformance.
In a recent interview, Terry Smith explains the reasons why—and what he thinks is wrong with the market today.
Key insights: 🧵
Smith breaks down the underperformance into distinct phases:
2022-23: Interest rates rose from 0% to 5%
2023: Magnificent Seven concentration
2024: AI boom/hype
Throughout: Passive fund flows
He claims each one is a headwind for quality investors.
On interest rates:
Quality companies trade at higher valuations because more cash flows are in the future. When rates rise, they behave like long-dated bonds—they get hit harder.
"When rates go up, our type of companies suffer in share price terms and companies which we wouldn't own which are very cyclical or not very good actually relatively benefit."
Eric Seufert and Ben Thompson just released an interview that reframes AI monetization strategy.
Why affiliate links fail, why "agentic commerce" won't happen, the Netflix lesson OpenAI is ignoring, and Meta's first real bear case in years.
What stood out: 🧵
Context: Everyone assumes ChatGPT will monetize through affiliate links (Walmart, Etsy partnerships).
Seufert's argument: this is the wrong model. And the urgency is real—"OpenAI needs to launch its ads product today, they cannot wait."
Why affiliate advertising is wrong for ChatGPT:
1. It only monetizes queries with commercial intent
Seufert: "If you're using ads, you get to monetize everything because it's every single engagement. If you're just using affiliate links, you can only monetize the ones that are like, 'What's the DSLR camera?'."
This is what happens when you answer the "tell me about your weakness" question too honestly.
PayPal CEO Alex Chriss at Citi's FinTech Conference laid out the challenges so clearly it spooked the market.
Here's what he said: 🧵
1/ Consumer spending deteriorated suddenly mid-September and it's persisting into Q4.
Chriss: "We started to see a slowdown on consumers, particularly around discretionary spending, retail and really in middle to low income brackets, which play a significant role in PayPal."
The weakness is concentrated: "If we look at some of our cohorts of higher income spenders, they're still spending. But we are seeing pressure for middle to lower income."
Q4 branded checkout expected to grow slower than Q3 as a result.
2/ The branded checkout rollout is taking much longer than expected.
Only 20% complete after significant time. Chriss admitted: "That's probably the piece I underestimated the most in terms of just how long it would take to get that experience out to customers."
The timeline? "We're just going to have to go through the hard work over the next few quarters and maybe even a couple of years to get through our backlog of merchants."
Years, not quarters. That's a meaningful delay.
Why so slow? Technical debt worse than realized.
Chriss: "We have 15-plus years of really bespoke integrations across our merchant base. This was something I personally didn't appreciate when I got here of just how many different integration patterns there have been."