Valuation: why multiples are becoming less useful

Source: Valuation Multiples by Michael Mauboussin & Dan Callahan The rise of intangibles lead to earnings and ROIC looking understated.

Meet Allan Mecham.

At 22, he dropped out of college to start his fund, Arlington Value.

And achieved a staggering 30% CAGR from 2008-2016.

He reveals his investing secret in his letters.

Here's the framework he used (that you can too): 1. Adopt a mindset for longevity

He focuses on variables that affect a business' durability.

Stuff like valuation doesn't matter if the business quality is misjudged.

Since a company's value is determined by its future cash flows...

Hence evaluating its future is key

The Marathon Asset letters offer a masterclass in investing through the capital cycle.

If you invest in the stock market...

Here are 11 capital cycle patterns you need to know: 1/ Periods of high profitability leads to reckless investments.

When profits are high:

-Boost CAPEX with little regard for ROIC
-Competitors will follow suit to avoid losing market share
-CEO's incentives aren't aligned with shareholders

It's a race to the bottom.

Since inception, Terry Smith has generated an annualized return of 15.4%, outperforming the MSCI world index by 390 basis points.

On Fundsmith's annual meeting 2024, he shared his views on his stocks, AI, and recent underperformance for 90 minutes.

Here're my key takeaways: Most of the time, the best stocks can only be bought when they are most heavily criticized.

It happened with Meta and Microsoft when Fundsmith first bought it.

Microsoft has appeared as a top performer for the eighth time. It speaks volumes about letting winners run.

14 lessons from Warren Buffett over 46 years of Berkshire Hathaway letters: 1. Fundamental pillars of investing

• Invest in companies with wide moats
• Know your circle of competence
• Think like a business owner
• Focus on future cash flows
• Macro is a waste of time
• Ignore volatility

Charlie Munger & John Collison podcast.

It's bittersweet listening to one of Charlie's final interviews.

His words of wisdom were always simple and straightforward.

Here're my 15 takeaways: 1. Create a huge advantage in life by:

Avoid selling anything that you wouldn't like to be on the receiving end.

Work with people you admire & trust.

Pay attention during math.

One of the best fund managers you've never heard of:

Tony Deden.

My key lessons from the Chairman of Edelweiss Holdings: 1. Respect the capital

The capital entrusted to him was a lifetime's worth of savings.

It's tough enough to protect the capital from externalities such as inflation, taxation or unforeseen events.

A fund manager can't compound the error by internal factors such as imprudence.

Charlie Munger said:

Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.

Judge management by how they're incentivized.

And proxy statements reveal management incentives.

How to analyze the proxy statement in under 10 minutes: Proxy statements provide insights not found in annual reports.

It includes the following information:

Notice of annual meeting of shareholders
Board structure
Election of directors
Board of directors compensation
Executive compensation

Let's dive into what to look out for:

There are 63,105 stocks in the investing universe.

But only 947 firms drove ~100% of the returns.

That's less than 1.5% of the entire investing universe.

Without a screener, it is like finding a needle in a haystack.

Here are the top 5 screeners to hunt for winners: Here's a quick rundown:

1. Revenue growth > 10%
2. Gross profitability ratio > 20%
3. Debt to EBITDA ratio < 3
4. Interest coverage ratio > 3.5
5. PEG < 1.2

Bonus: List of FREE screening tools at the end.

Peter Attia is a leading authority on longevity medicine.

As you age, quality of life is as important as living longer.

This is an important read if your goal is to age well while maintaining the abilities of your youth.

Here are my notes from the book: Outlive The 4 Horsemen

These are the 4 leading causes of death:

1. Heart disease
2. Cancer
3. Neurological disease
4. Diabetes

Peter provides a lot of information to mitigate the risks of these 4 Horsemen, which will be covered below.

But a major one is—cutting out fructose.

Everything I've learned from Howard Marks' letters and interviews.

Risks, returns and market cycles.

These are the 10 most important lessons: 1. Risk Management

Investment isn't about avoiding risk altogether.

Risk-free investments will usually bring risk-free returns (mediocre).

Rather, we should think about managing risk instead using tools such as:

Diversification, rebalancing, long time horizon, etc.

Warren Buffett believes Munger has the best 30-second mind in the world.

He sees the essence of everything before you even finish the sentence.

That’s because Munger has a robust latticework of mental models in his mind.

Here are 8 indispensable mental models: 1. Occam's Razor

It states that “it is futile to do with more what can be done with fewer”.

The simplest explanation is most likely the right one.

Similar to Peter Lynch's 2-min drill:

If truly understood, the thesis could be summed up in 2-min.

Devoured 46 years of Warren Buffett's wisdom through his letters from 1977 to 2022.

My eyes are tired, but my mind is richer!

It taught me more about investing than any business school ever could.

Here's what I learned: 1. Moat is NEVER stagnant

A company's competitive position either grows stronger or weaker each day.

Widening the moat must always take precedence over short-term targets.

10 Investing Gems from Peter Lynch.

This legend inherited a $20 million fund and grew it to $14 billion.

Delivering a 29.2% annual return between 1977 and 1990.

Here is how he did it: 1. Hold on to your winners tightly.

Great businesses defy mean reversion.

Cut lousy businesses out.

The quote was so good that Warren Buffett cited it in his shareholder letter.

“Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.”

Before, the only way to learn from investing legends was to get into Columbia Business School.

It featured greats such as Ben Graham, Joel Greenblatt & Bruce Greenwald.

Today, the internet has made education available to all for FREE!

The top 5 'lectures' by fund managers: 1. Joel Greenblatt of Gotham Capital

A playlist of Joel's lecture at Columbia.

Available for free!

Learn about valuation, special situations, case studies and options.

1/ Home Depot is one of the largest and most successful retailers in the world.

With over 2,000 stores in the US.

A deep-dive into this successful retail powerhouse: 2/ Founders Bernie Marcus and Arthur Blank saw a gap in the market in the late 1970s.

The prevalent fragmented system of small hardware stores was inefficient.

They envisioned a one-stop-shop model, revolutionizing the home improvement industry.

1/ The HealthSouth scandal, a classic case of corporate fraud, can teach valuable lessons to investors about spotting financial red flags early.

This story involves the inflated earnings of an ambitious healthcare company, a brazen CEO, and a web of deception. 2/ HealthSouth, once among the largest US healthcare providers, fell from grace following an accounting scandal spanning 1996-2002.

CEO Richard Scrushy manipulated the company's accounts to boost earnings by a staggering $1.4 billion.

Platforms like Amazon, Apple, Google, & Microsoft lower transaction costs, reduce search costs, and optimize trade efficiency.

But their value lies not in assets or software but in network and connectivity.

This is a complete breakdown of the platform business model: In the digital platform economy, every new user enhances the experience of another, and platforms grow exponentially after their 'inflection point'.

The snowball effect makes each new user a step towards greater platform value.

1/ Just had a deep-dive into an enlightening podcast with Aswath Damodaran, the 'Dean of Valuation.'

Sharing some key takeaways from his insights on business valuation and personal investing strategies.

🧵 2/ The 5 key variables of business valuation, according to Damodaran:

1) Revenue growth,
2) profitability,
3) reinvestment efficiency,
4) discount rate, and
5) failure risk.

Growth, he says, only adds value when achieved efficiently.

First time seeing Buffett and Munger LIVE.

This meeting was amazing & I took away a lot.

In this thread, I will share my key lessons from the shareholders meeting

+ How to make the most of your Omaha trip
+ Complete list of events happening
+ What I wish I had done differently The duo spoke extensively about the current banking crisis.

Even though the FDIC limit is $250k.

The U.S. government is unlikely to let depositors lose money.

Sure, the stockholders and debt holders would lose money.

But the government will cover beyond $250k.

Charlie Munger only invests in 3 holdings:

Berkshire, Costco, and Li Lu's fund.

He entrusted a portion of his investments to Li Lu and called him a genius.

Here's what Li Lu says about defining your Circle of Competence: First, let's define the term Circle of Competence.

Your COC is based on your knowledge, specialization & experiences.

Know the boundaries & invest within your circle.

A 1996 letter from Buffett explains what it means to operate within your own COC: