The end of you country is coming because of internet and blockchain.
We know this because it has already happened several times in the past. Each time a new information tech appears, a new type of government appears. 🧵
Consider the Catholic Church in the 1500s
Dozens of movements protesting the Church appear over the centuries. But the Church systematically quashed them. It's easy to burn a heretic and his writings.
At the time, the Church was the most powerful entity because of it monopoly on information.
The clergy was educated, it had access to plenty of books, it could read (Latin, which most books were written on), they learned secrets via confessions, they had a monopoly on the word of God (locals spoke vernaculars), and they had European-wide correspondence.
They always knew better than anybody what was happening.
The secular power, under the feudalist system, had a strong hierarchy and a fractal system like the Church, but it didn't have the same sort of interconnected networks. The result? Less power
Then comes the printing press. Within decades, Martin Luther publishes his 95 Theses, which spread like gunpowder: now you don't publish one copy at a time. You can publish thousands. The Church can't stop it.
More generally, they lost the monopoly of information, and hence of ideas. Merchants, academics, lords... All have now access to more information and communicate more.
The Catholic Church, which had risen in power for 7 centuries, splintered in a matter of decades.
What replaced it? Something enabled by the printing press too.
See, before the printing press, in Europe there are areas spoken by Romance languages, Germanic, Slavic...
From Portugal to Wallonia, there's a gradient of change of local vernaculars. The next valley speaks a similar language, but not quite the same. And these changes accumulate with distance.
This stops with the printing press.
Books are printed in the major cities, which have the most writers and the most readers. Publishers publish in whatever will sell best, ie the most widely-spoken vernaculars of the time.
Those close-by will learn to read and understand these vernaculars. Over centuries, entire geographical areas start speaking the same language. They share the same ideas. A brotherhood sentiment emerges. A national sentiment.
So nation-states emerge to displace the feudalism that had been reigning for over 500 years, thanks to the printing press.
The same thing happened with broadcasting media in the 20th Century: they enabled totalitarian political systems, impossible before.
Before them, writing enabled kingdoms, empires, and churches.
In the next articles I'll explore the patterns of this newly-emerging type of government: taxation, decentralization, inequality, SEZ.. Subscribe to get it.
I respect @BillAckman a lot but I think he's wrong on @Uber. AFAIK his bear case on robotaxis: 1. Not great for bad weather 2. Too expensive to cover peak demand 3. Less utilization because of food delivery 4. They can't disintermediate Uber
1. Not great for bad weather
This is a @Waymo driving in rain—the worst they'll ever be! They already have ~10x fewer accidents than humans. Maybe in the short term humans are going to be better in some really bad weather, but those are short-term exceptions
2. Robotaxis will be too expensive to cover peak demand
This is ptrobably true for Waymo but not @Tesla's @robotaxi, for 2 reasons:
a. Cybercab costs will be the same order of magnitude as normal ICE cars
The Model 3 costs ~$40-$45k, but the Cybercab will have 60% fewer parts: steering wheel, pedals, steering column, backseats, backdoors, side-window mirrors, rear window... Let's assume this will bring the cost down to $30-$35k
Add to that the new manufacturing process that treats Tesla's Cybercabs not as cars, but as electronics. They will be able to produce a car every 5s. This will further reduce their price
Compare that to the price of a car for Uber, which today is between $25k-$60k
Never bet against the US:
Ppl think its biggest strength is its institutions, the dollar, entrepreneurship... But one of its biggest assets is its geography 🧵
1. Size
The US is the 4th largest country. It spans an entire continent, reaches two oceans, and is big enough to be a geographic heavyweight in the world
2. The Mississippi Basin
It's the 4th largest drainage basin in the world and occupies 40% of the contiguous 48 US states, touching 32 of the US’s 50 states. 11 US states directly take their name from it.
Climate caused the US Civil War, because: 1. Slavery was the main cause of the war 2. Different crops were the main cause of slavery 3. Climate caused different crops in the North vs South
This is terribly important to understand the US today and how to heal it
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1. Slavery was the main cause of the war: the Abolitionist North & the Slavery South were competing to expand westward to increase their political influence
But the North grew & expanded faster, to a point where it could force abolition on the South, which then seceded
In 1790, the Free & Slave states had the same population, and there were many more Slave States (8 vs 5), so Slave States controlled the Senate.
By the eve of the war in 1860, the North had 50% more population and 4 more states, giving them control of both the House & Senate
Moscow is one of the weirdest capitals:
• Biggest European city
• Extremely cold
• Little farmland
• To Russia's extreme west
• Not on a coast or main river
How did it create the biggest country on Earth?
It involves horse archers, human harvesting & tiny animals 🧵
The first shocking fact is that Russia is so far north it's at the edge of arable land. How can you create a capital with so little food? Why not in the middle of the most fertile area on Earth?
This far north is extremely cold
Moscow is the 3rd coldest capital in the world and by far the biggest: with 20M ppl, its metro population is 8x bigger than the 2nd biggest cold capital, Stockholm!
This map tells you how a seemingly innocent difference, like wheat vs rice eating, can have dramatic political, economic, and cultural ramifications:
🧵
The areas that harvest wheat vs rice are different. Why?
Because of climate
Rice needs heat and lots of water. Ideally, flooding the fields to also kill weeds. Rice dies with frost.
Wheat resists it well, prefers cooler temperatures, but dies when it's flooded
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."