Have you ever heard northern Europeans telling southern Europeans they're lazy?
It's false.
So why are northerners richer?
Small thread 🧵
1. Northerners work substantially LESS than southerners
2. Northerners make substantially MORE money
Here's GDP per capita PPS, indexed at 100=EU average
Which mean Northern Europeans are substantially more productive.
Why? If you ask a Northerner, he might tell you it's because they're better educated, have better institutions, the protestant work ethic, it's colder so ppl work harder...
Suspicious.
Alternative: geography.
This is Europe's topography map.
Look at it and try to figure out the biggest patterns.
Do you see any?
The biggest one: the north is made up of the gigantic Northern European Plain, while the south is mostly mountains.
Why?
Because the African tectonic plate hits the Eurasian plate.
Looking at the details, you can see the formation of Southern Europe due to these tectonic plates.
A bit like the Indian plate forms the Himalayas hitting the Eurasian Plate
But mountains don't create wealth. Plains do. Wherever there's a plain that is well irrigated, there's ppl. Where there's ppl there's wealth.
Why?
Flat :
➡️ you can irrigate. Water doesn't run away.
➡️ build up of sediments from rivers, so +fertile
➡️ Rivers are slower, easier to control. +irrigation
➡️ easy to trade (walk, roads, navigable rivers)
➡️building is much cheaper
Now look back at the map of Europe, this time with navigable rivers. What do you notice? 1. So many mountains in the south, you can't develop agriculture as well, grow a big pop, create much wealth. And everything is + expensive
2. The mountains stop the water from the clouds, which falls quickly into the mediterranean in the south (mountains), but very slowly in the Northern European Plain, creating lots of navigable rivers, amazing for irrigation and trade.
Remember all of this when you hear northern Europeans calling the southern neighbors "lazy".
I respect @BillAckman a lot but I think he's wrong on @Uber. AFAIK his bear case on robotaxis: 1. Not great for bad weather 2. Too expensive to cover peak demand 3. Less utilization because of food delivery 4. They can't disintermediate Uber
1. Not great for bad weather
This is a @Waymo driving in rain—the worst they'll ever be! They already have ~10x fewer accidents than humans. Maybe in the short term humans are going to be better in some really bad weather, but those are short-term exceptions
2. Robotaxis will be too expensive to cover peak demand
This is ptrobably true for Waymo but not @Tesla's @robotaxi, for 2 reasons:
a. Cybercab costs will be the same order of magnitude as normal ICE cars
The Model 3 costs ~$40-$45k, but the Cybercab will have 60% fewer parts: steering wheel, pedals, steering column, backseats, backdoors, side-window mirrors, rear window... Let's assume this will bring the cost down to $30-$35k
Add to that the new manufacturing process that treats Tesla's Cybercabs not as cars, but as electronics. They will be able to produce a car every 5s. This will further reduce their price
Compare that to the price of a car for Uber, which today is between $25k-$60k
Never bet against the US:
Ppl think its biggest strength is its institutions, the dollar, entrepreneurship... But one of its biggest assets is its geography 🧵
1. Size
The US is the 4th largest country. It spans an entire continent, reaches two oceans, and is big enough to be a geographic heavyweight in the world
2. The Mississippi Basin
It's the 4th largest drainage basin in the world and occupies 40% of the contiguous 48 US states, touching 32 of the US’s 50 states. 11 US states directly take their name from it.
Climate caused the US Civil War, because: 1. Slavery was the main cause of the war 2. Different crops were the main cause of slavery 3. Climate caused different crops in the North vs South
This is terribly important to understand the US today and how to heal it
🧵
1. Slavery was the main cause of the war: the Abolitionist North & the Slavery South were competing to expand westward to increase their political influence
But the North grew & expanded faster, to a point where it could force abolition on the South, which then seceded
In 1790, the Free & Slave states had the same population, and there were many more Slave States (8 vs 5), so Slave States controlled the Senate.
By the eve of the war in 1860, the North had 50% more population and 4 more states, giving them control of both the House & Senate
Moscow is one of the weirdest capitals:
• Biggest European city
• Extremely cold
• Little farmland
• To Russia's extreme west
• Not on a coast or main river
How did it create the biggest country on Earth?
It involves horse archers, human harvesting & tiny animals 🧵
The first shocking fact is that Russia is so far north it's at the edge of arable land. How can you create a capital with so little food? Why not in the middle of the most fertile area on Earth?
This far north is extremely cold
Moscow is the 3rd coldest capital in the world and by far the biggest: with 20M ppl, its metro population is 8x bigger than the 2nd biggest cold capital, Stockholm!
This map tells you how a seemingly innocent difference, like wheat vs rice eating, can have dramatic political, economic, and cultural ramifications:
🧵
The areas that harvest wheat vs rice are different. Why?
Because of climate
Rice needs heat and lots of water. Ideally, flooding the fields to also kill weeds. Rice dies with frost.
Wheat resists it well, prefers cooler temperatures, but dies when it's flooded
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."