Thread by @DrJinRussell

Another thread for the overseas people who are fascinated by New Zealand’s response to Covid-19, Kia ora. It is Day 14, and there already positive signs that we are flattening delta. Level 4 is indeed effective, new daily cases are suppressed. /1

(Graph by @TheSpinoffTV)

Genome sequencing has shown that we are dealing with a single outbreak of delta, which has been traced to an arrival from NSW in MIQ who tested positive 8 days before the first community case was detected. We know exactly when the outbreak started, it’s a short timeframe /2

After two weeks of national Level 4, wastewater testing showed that the virus was present in the community in Auckland and Wellington. Wellington’s cases are ring-fenced, so the government is already easing lockdown restrictions in all areas except for Auckland from tonight /3

Our Level 4 lockdown is brisk and very effective. Because of the effectiveness of our elimination strategy, we have been able to live without restrictions for the majority of the pandemic. When we lockdown, we do it very, very well. /4

And it’s a popular strategy, extremely popular in fact. This piece by @tessairini for the @guardian explains how our response has not only saved *thousands* of lives and disability, but has brought our small nation together, trust in government is high /5 amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…

We really do receive very excellent communication from PM Jacinda Ardern and our leading COVID-19 response ministers, alongside detailed health advice from the Director General of Health. The quality of the info we receive is very high, see for yourself /6 rnz.co.nz/news/national/…

Consequently, we don’t really have much of an anti lockdown movement here in NZ. Police showed up to an anti-lockdown protest in Auckland over the past week, to find only one lonely protestor there.
theguardian.com/world/2021/aug… Public compliance with the lockdown is *very high* /7

And we have saved *so* many lives. Delta bring with it possibly twice the hospitalisation rate of alpha, and we are seeing a case hospitalisation ratio of approx 5%. Modelling has shown that without our swift lockdown, we might have had >500 cases per day now, instead today 49 /8

So Auckland alone will remain in Level 4 lockdown for another two weeks, while the rest of the country comes down to Level 3. As the lockdown works, the locations where community transmission may have occurred is dropping, flattening /9

(Great graph from @TheSpinoffTV again)

And we are vaccinating fast now. Consistently vaccinating upwards of 70K people per day, which is well over 1% of the population per day. /10

So while you may see complaints over a slow vaccine rollout, just be reassured that we are catching up to the rest of the world, then we will have the same proportion of immunity but but without the deaths and disability. We’ve sadly, but thankfully, had 26 Covid-19 deaths./11

Furthermore we are now ahead of some countries in opening up vaccination to *all* children 12y and over from tomorrow. High levels of public trust in government, and having watched the carnage overseas, means we have a healthy proportion intending to be vaccinated /12

People often want to know what’s the end game, when will elimination end? Well, it’s a debate we are having too. But we will very soon be in the same position (immunity wise) as other countries, so we can learn what works from reopening a overseas /13

This is the real beauty of the elimination response. It saves lives, it saves economies, it saves domestic freedoms, and then we gain the benefits of new technologies (eg rapid testing), new treatments (eg dexamethasone), new vaccines. We learn and implement what works /14

We are obviously not out of the woods. Delta is serious and the work we are doing right now is saving lives and saving livelihoods. beehive.govt.nz/release/govern… But elimination is proving itself to be best and most equitable until we are all vaccinated. Keep cheering for us!!

Addendum: apologies I meant to attach *this graph* to tweet 9, which shows how the number of locations of interest are steadily flattening, you can see how helpful a short sharp lockdown is for contact tracing right here.